21.08.2026 22:00
Estadio Belvedere
Referee: Hernan Heras, Uruguay
Liverpool Montevideo
Match Timeline
Cerro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
36'
J. Amaro
Cerro
🔄
46'
A. Cambon ↔ R. Mederos
Cerro
🔄
46'
A. Severo ↔ Leonardo Pais
Cerro
58'
N. Garayalde
Liverpool Montevideo
🟨
60'
F. Bregante
Cerro
63'
F. Martinez
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
66'
C. Barros ↔ E. Forclaz
Cerro
🔄
66'
J. Amaro ↔ E. Rodriguez
Cerro
🔄
73'
K. Lewis ↔ D. Romero
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
73'
F. Martinez ↔ R. M. Degregorio
Liverpool Montevideo
🟨
75'
B. Aleman
Cerro
🟨
75'
L. Acosta
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
78'
R. Bentancourt ↔ F. Barcelo
Liverpool Montevideo
81'
R. Machado
Liverpool Montevideo
83'
F. Barcelo
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
84'
R. Machado ↔ T. Brizuela
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
84'
L. Acosta ↔ D. Zabala
Liverpool Montevideo
🟨
90+1'
D. Suarez
Cerro

Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.2%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Liverpool Montevideo Win 54.2%
Draw 18.9%
Cerro Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool Montevideo1.3
Cerro0.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WWDLW
31 GF / 25 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
17 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
0.71
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
11
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
9
3.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 26 matches
Cerro Cerro 24 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Statistic Cerro
9 Wins 7
9 Draws 4
8 Losses 13
31 Goals For 17
25 Goals Against 35
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 4
12 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 9
3.5 Shots On Goal 0
11.5 Total Shots 0
4 Corners 0
56% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Liverpool Montevideo's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

So far, Liverpool Montevideo have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 32 points from 23 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cerro Analysis

Cerro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 22 points from 23 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 15:34, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Liverpool Montevideo won 6 times, Cerro won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:14 from Liverpool Montevideo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.1%)
Predicted formations: Liverpool Montevideo 4-1-2-3 / Cerro 4-3-3
H2H summary: Liverpool Montevideo wins 6, draws 4, Cerro wins 5

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 5 6 44:22 22 52
W W L D W
2 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
3 28 14 7 7 42:27 15 49
L W L D W
4 26 14 5 7 44:30 14 47
W W W W L
5 28 13 4 11 40:36 4 43
D D W W L
6 28 12 7 9 35:34 1 43
D L W L D
7 27 11 9 7 36:24 12 42
W D W W W
8 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
9 28 9 7 12 36:35 1 34
L L L L L
10 28 8 9 11 28:30 -2 33
D L D D D
11 28 8 8 12 32:38 -6 32
D D W W L
12 28 7 11 10 23:30 -7 32
W D L D L
13
Cerro Away
28 9 5 14 22:41 -19 32
W W D L W
14 28 8 6 14 27:38 -11 30
L L D W D
15 28 4 13 11 23:37 -14 25
D L L D D
16 28 6 4 18 21:41 -20 22
L W W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
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