URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Belvedere

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.2%
Odds 1.14
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds 1.64
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.2%
1.14
BTTS No
55%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
1.64
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.85
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 1-0
-
5.50
Probability Distribution
Liverpool Montevideo Win 54.2%
Draw 18.9%
Cerro Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool Montevideo1.3
Cerro0.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WWDLW
31 GF / 25 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
17 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
0.71
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
11
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
9
1.17
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 26 matches
Cerro Cerro 24 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Statistic Cerro
9 Wins 7
9 Draws 4
8 Losses 13
31 Goals For 17
25 Goals Against 35
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
11 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 4
12 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 9
1.17 Shots On Goal 0
3.83 Total Shots 0
1.33 Corners 0
18.7% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Liverpool Montevideo's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

So far, Liverpool Montevideo have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 32 points from 23 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cerro Analysis

Cerro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 22 points from 23 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 15:34, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Liverpool Montevideo won 6 times, Cerro won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:14 from Liverpool Montevideo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.1%)
Predicted formations: Liverpool Montevideo 3-4-1-2 / Cerro 4-3-3
H2H summary: Liverpool Montevideo wins 6, draws 4, Cerro wins 5
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
16.08.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
4
0
W
08.08.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Albion FC
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
12.07.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
2
L
08.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
01.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
3
D
24.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
Last matches: Cerro
15.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
2
1
W
09.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
0
W
03.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
H2H: Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro
12.07.26
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
2
L
20.02.26
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
24.08.25
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
L
25.05.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
W
30.11.24
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
W
21.07.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
03.06.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
3
L
24.11.23
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
W
08.07.23
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
L
24.04.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
14.02.21
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
23.08.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
27.11.19
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
W
13.07.19
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
W
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
08.08.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Albion FC
1
0
W
12.07.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
2
L
08.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
05.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
3
3
D
16.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
16.11.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
0
1
L
26.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
1
W
11.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
2
2
D
27.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
2
D
30.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
H2H at home: Liverpool Montevideo
12.07.26
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
2
L
25.05.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
W
21.07.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
03.06.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
3
L
24.04.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
23.08.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
Last matches: Cerro
09.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
0
W
03.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
1
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
5
L
31.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
0
1
L
17.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro
CA River Plate
0
0
D
16.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
1
0
W
H2H away: Cerro
12.07.26
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
2
W
25.05.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
L
21.07.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
W
03.06.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
3
W
24.04.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
23.08.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.08
Draw 3.74
Home 1.57
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.54
Draw 2.18
Home 2.18
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 1.75 1.50
Over 2.0 1.67
Over 2.25 1.95
Over 2.5 2.22
Over 2.75 2.61
Over 3.5 4.09
Under 1.5 2.87
Under 1.75 2.54
Under 2.0 2.18
Under 2.25 1.84
Under 2.5 1.64
Under 2.75 1.48
Under 3.5 1.22
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 3.50
Home 1.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.38
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.20
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.78
Draw 3.55
Home 1.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.62
Draw 2.03
Home 2.17
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.77
Draw 2.40
Home 1.94
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.20
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.59
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.16
Over 2.75 2.49
Over 3.0 3.14
Over 3.25 3.60
Over 3.5 3.96
Over 3.75 5.06
Over 4.0 7.40
Over 4.25 7.80
Over 4.5 8.30
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.30
Under 0.75 7.50
Under 1.0 6.65
Under 1.25 3.80
Under 1.5 2.81
Under 1.75 2.49
Under 2.0 2.10
Under 2.25 1.82
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.0 1.27
Under 3.25 1.22
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 3.75 1.10
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.20
Draw 3.45
Home 1.61
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.40
Draw 2.20
Home 2.23
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.90
Draw 2.48
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.0 1.55
Over 2.5 2.06
Over 3.0 2.95
Over 3.25 3.30
Over 3.5 3.60
Over 4.0 6.00
Over 4.25 6.40
Over 4.5 6.75
Under 1.5 2.95
Under 2.0 2.23
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.05

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 4 5 37:20 17 46
W W W D W
2 24 13 6 5 40:24 16 45
W D D L D
3 24 12 9 3 31:19 12 45
W D W L D
4 24 11 6 7 30:26 4 39
D W W W W
5 23 11 5 7 34:27 7 38
W L W W L
6 24 10 6 8 29:28 1 36
L W D L D
7 24 9 8 7 30:23 7 35
W W D W L
8 24 11 2 11 35:33 2 35
L L W L D
9 24 9 7 8 33:27 6 34
L L D L D
10 24 8 6 10 25:26 -1 30
D D L W D
11 24 6 9 9 19:25 -6 27
L L W L D
12 24 7 5 12 21:31 -10 26
D W L L D
13
Cerro Away
24 7 4 13 17:35 -18 25
W W L W W
14 24 6 6 12 26:35 -9 24
L D D W L
15 24 4 11 9 22:31 -9 23
D L D L D
16 24 4 4 16 18:37 -19 16
L L L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)