NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
16.05.2026 14:00
Åråsen
Referee: Espen Eskas, Norway
Lillestrom
Match Timeline
Sandefjord
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
L. Ranger
Lillestrom
🟨
30'
Marcus Melchior
Sandefjord
⚽
49'
N. Moller
Sandefjord
🔄
60'
E. Pettersen ↔ J. Vester
Sandefjord
🔄
61'
B. Berntsen ↔ E. Patoulidis
Sandefjord
🔄
61'
N. Moller ↔ S. Mathisen
Sandefjord
🟨
62'
Zinedin Smajlović
Sandefjord
🟨
70'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
Lillestrom
🔄
78'
C. Jebara ↔ F. Elkaer
Lillestrom
🔄
78'
S. Ottesen ↔ L. Alperud
Lillestrom
⚽
84'
G. Nyheim
Lillestrom
🟨
87'
Zinedin Smajlović
Sandefjord
🟥
87'
Zinedin Smajlović
Sandefjord
🔄
88'
G. Nyheim ↔ K. Krygard
Lillestrom
🔄
88'
S. Drammeh ↔ Y. Paintsil
Lillestrom
🟨
90+2'
Kevin Martin Krygard
Lillestrom
🔄
90'
H. Woxen ↔ E. B. Garnas
Lillestrom
🔄
90'
M. Melchior ↔ R. Dzabic
Sandefjord
🔄
90'
R. Alte ↔ S. Kristiansen
Sandefjord
⚽
90'
L. Alperud · Assist: Felix Va
Lillestrom

Lillestrom vs Sandefjord Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lillestrom Win 59%
Draw 11.2%
Sandefjord Win 29.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lillestrom1.71
Sandefjord1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WWDLW
38 GF / 25 GA
Sandefjord Sandefjord
WLDWL
28 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
9
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
9
4.5
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lillestrom Lillestrom 18 matches
Sandefjord Sandefjord 18 matches
Lillestrom Statistic Sandefjord
8 Wins 11
4 Draws 3
6 Losses 4
38 Goals For 28
25 Goals Against 20
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
9 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 5
12.75 Total Shots 15.5
4.63 Corners 6.25
50.9% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Lillestrom's more proactive style and Sandefjord's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sandefjord. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lillestrom expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Sandefjord in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sandefjord having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Lillestrom Analysis

Placed 3 with 16 points from 8 outings, Lillestrom continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 13:6 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Karlsbakk (4 goals), T. Olsen (3 goals), Felix Va (2 goals), with creative support from Felix Va (3 assists), T. Olsen (1 assists), Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Sandefjord Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Sandefjord have collected 13 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:7 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Patoulidis (2 goals), J. Vester (1 goals), Nikolaj Möller (1 goals), with creative support from B. Berntsen (1 assists), Edvard Pettersen (1 assists), Vetle Walle Egeli (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Lillestrom won 7 times, Sandefjord won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:17 from Lillestrom's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.31 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: Lillestrom 4-1-4-1 / Sandefjord 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lillestrom 6, Sandefjord 5
H2H summary: Lillestrom wins 7, draws 3, Sandefjord wins 3

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 16 2 3 54:20 34 50
W W D W L
2 21 16 2 3 53:19 34 50
L W W W W
3 21 11 5 5 40:29 11 38
W L L D L
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 21 9 2 10 39:32 7 29
W L L D W
8 21 8 4 9 25:32 -7 28
D D L W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 21 6 5 10 21:27 -6 23
W L D D W
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen