NORWAY ELITESERIEN
09.08.2026 12:30
Åråsen
Referee: S. Kringstad
Lillestrom
Match Timeline
Rosenborg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Jonas Svensson
Rosenborg
39'
N. Sahsah · Assist: A. Chiakha
Rosenborg
🔄
46'
J. Svensson ↔ A. F. Witry
Rosenborg
🔄
61'
N. Sahsah ↔ J. Mortensen
Rosenborg
🟨
62'
Amin Chiakha
Rosenborg
🔄
62'
T. Olsen ↔ F. Gulbrandsen
Lillestrom
🟨
69'
Dávid Ďuriš
Rosenborg
🔄
71'
A. Pereira ↔ T. Dahl
Rosenborg
🟨
74'
Tomáš Nemčík
Rosenborg
🔄
74'
K. Krygard ↔ H. Woxen
Lillestrom
🔄
74'
L. Alperud ↔ G. Nordh
Lillestrom
🟨
84'
Tobias Solheim Dahl
Rosenborg
🔄
88'
E. K. Ceide ↔ J. Reitan-Sunde
Rosenborg
🟨
90+4'
Harald Woxen
Lillestrom
🟨
90+5'
Mads Bomholt
Rosenborg
90'
A. Chiakha · Assist: M. Bomholt
Rosenborg

Lillestrom vs Rosenborg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.3%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lillestrom Win 56.3%
Draw 20%
Rosenborg Win 23.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lillestrom1.66
Rosenborg1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WWDLW
52 GF / 42 GA
Rosenborg Rosenborg
WLDWL
32 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
15
BTTS Yes
9
17
Over 2.5
13
4.07
Shots on Goal
4.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lillestrom Lillestrom 28 matches
Rosenborg Rosenborg 23 matches
Lillestrom Statistic Rosenborg
12 Wins 10
4 Draws 4
12 Losses 9
52 Goals For 32
42 Goals Against 31
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
15 BTTS Yes 9
22 Over 1.5 19
17 Over 2.5 13
13 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 9
4.07 Shots On Goal 4.27
12 Total Shots 12.53
4.87 Corners 6.33
51.7% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lillestrom expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Rosenborg in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rosenborg having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Lillestrom have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rosenborg.

Lillestrom Analysis

Lillestrom sit 4 with 25 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats with a 22:18 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Markus Karlsbakk (4 goals), Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (4 goals), Felix Vá (2 goals), with creative support from Felix Vá (5 assists), Ylldren Ibrahimaj (2 assists), Lars Ranger (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Rosenborg Analysis

So far, Rosenborg have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 18 points from 14 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 19:18 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Amin Chiakha (6 goals), Simen Nordli (3 goals), Emil Konradsen Ceide (2 goals), with creative support from Ole Selnaes (5 assists), Emil Konradsen Ceide (3 assists), Mads Bomholt (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Lillestrom won 5 times, Rosenborg won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:19 from Lillestrom's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.77 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.1%)
Predicted formations: Lillestrom 4-1-4-1 / Rosenborg 4-3-3
Missing players: Lillestrom 3, Rosenborg 3
H2H summary: Lillestrom wins 5, draws 3, Rosenborg wins 5

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 2 2 49:15 34 47
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 19 5 5 9 16:24 -8 20
D D W L L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen