NORWAY ELITESERIEN
30.08.2026 17:15
Åråsen
Referee: Tore Hansen, Norway
Lillestrom
Match Timeline
Fredrikstad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
S. Owusu · Assist: S. Sorlokk
Fredrikstad
VAR
16'
Benjamin Faraas
Fredrikstad
🟨
17'
Frederik Elkær
Lillestrom
18'
M. Nilsson
Fredrikstad
VAR
35'
Yaw Paintsil
Lillestrom
37'
F. Gulbrandsen
Lillestrom
🔄
46'
F. Elkaer ↔ D. Bassi
Lillestrom
🟨
53'
Benjamin Faraas
Fredrikstad
🔄
59'
S. Sorlokk ↔ F. Ghebreyohannes
Fredrikstad
🔄
59'
S. Leach ↔ J. Jezierski
Fredrikstad
🔄
59'
S. Laghzaoui ↔ G. Wesseh
Fredrikstad
VAR
61'
Felix Vá
Lillestrom
🔄
64'
F. Gulbrandsen ↔ T. Olsen
Lillestrom
65'
B. Faraas · Assist: H. Skogvold
Fredrikstad
🔄
66'
S. Owusu ↔ S. Rafn
Fredrikstad
🔄
72'
E. Kitolano ↔ H. Woxen
Lillestrom
79'
B. Faraas · Assist: G. Wesseh
Fredrikstad
🔄
83'
I. Amundsen ↔ U. Fredriksen
Fredrikstad
🟨
86'
Harald Woxen
Lillestrom

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.1%
Odds 1.18
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.21
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.1%
1.18
BTTS No
56%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
2.21
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.1%
1.15
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62
Correct Score 1-0
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Lillestrom Win 54.2%
Draw 21.9%
Fredrikstad Win 23.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lillestrom1.61
Fredrikstad1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WWDLW
55 GF / 46 GA
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WLDWL
36 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.72
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
17
BTTS Yes
16
18
Over 2.5
14
3.89
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lillestrom Lillestrom 32 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 27 matches
Lillestrom Statistic Fredrikstad
13 Wins 12
6 Draws 6
13 Losses 9
55 Goals For 36
46 Goals Against 39
1.72 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
17 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 21
18 Over 2.5 14
13 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 6
3.89 Shots On Goal 3.65
11.21 Total Shots 11.24
5.32 Corners 4.12
52.8% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Lillestrom's more proactive style and Fredrikstad's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lillestrom expected to line up in 4-5-1 and Fredrikstad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fredrikstad having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lillestrom have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fredrikstad. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Lillestrom Analysis

Lillestrom sit 5 with 26 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 23:21, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (4 goals), Markus Karlsbakk (4 goals), Felix Vá (3 goals), with creative support from Felix Vá (5 assists), Ylldren Ibrahimaj (2 assists), Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Fredrikstad Analysis

Fredrikstad are currently 8 in the standings with 23 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 18:27 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (3 goals), Daniel Eid (2 goals), Fredrik Holmé (2 goals), with creative support from Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (1 assists), Daniel Eid (1 assists), Fredrik Holmé (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Lillestrom won 2 times, Fredrikstad won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:11 from Lillestrom's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.2%)
Predicted formations: Lillestrom 4-5-1 / Fredrikstad 3-4-3
Missing players: Lillestrom 4, Fredrikstad 4
H2H summary: Lillestrom wins 2, draws 3, Fredrikstad wins 3

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 16 2 3 54:20 34 50
W W D W L
2 21 16 2 3 53:19 34 50
L W W W W
3 21 11 5 5 40:29 11 38
W L L D L
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 21 9 2 10 39:32 7 29
W L L D W
8 21 8 4 9 25:32 -7 28
D D L W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 21 6 5 10 21:27 -6 23
W L D D W
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen