FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Referee: B. Dechepy
Lille
Match Timeline
Nice
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
13'
Elye Wahi
Nice
🟨
21'
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Lille
🟨
30'
Chancel Mbemba
Lille
🔄
56'
N. Mukau ↔ O. Giroud
Lille
🔄
56'
F. Correia ↔ E. Mbappe
Lille
VAR
71'
Romain Perraud
Lille
🔄
78'
A. Bouaddi ↔ O. Sahraoui
Lille
🔄
83'
J. Clauss ↔ I. Jansson
Nice
🔄
83'
M. Cho ↔ T. Louchet
Nice
🔄
84'
T. Ndombele ↔ D. Coulibaly
Nice
🟨
90+8'
Berke Özer
Lille
🟨
90+7'
Isak Jansson
Nice
🔄
90+1'
M. Fernandez-Pardo ↔ G. Perrin
Lille
🔄
90'
S. Diop ↔ K. Boudache
Nice
🔄
90'
E. Wahi ↔ T. Gouveia
Nice

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 57.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
57.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Lille Win 71.5%
Draw 5.8%
Nice Win 22.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille1.63
Nice1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lille Lille
WWDLW
64 GF / 49 GA
Nice Nice
WLDWL
47 GF / 79 GA
Key Stats
1.49
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.84
16
BTTS Yes
25
18
Over 2.5
24
4.63
Shots on Goal
3.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lille Lille 43 matches
Nice Nice 43 matches
Lille Statistic Nice
22 Wins 10
5 Draws 9
16 Losses 24
64 Goals For 47
49 Goals Against 79
1.49 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.84
16 BTTS Yes 25
26 Over 1.5 34
18 Over 2.5 24
9 Over 3.5 17
15 Clean Sheets 5
13 Failed To Score 15
4.63 Shots On Goal 3.74
13.49 Total Shots 11.67
5.84 Corners 5.33
56% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lille's more proactive style and Nice's more cautious structure. Nice seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lille expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nice in 3-5-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nice having the stronger overall control. Lille come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nice. Lille arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 53 points compared to Nice in 15 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lille Analysis

Lille come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 53 points after 29 matches. With 16 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 49:34, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by H. Haraldsson (7 goals), M. Fernandez-Pardo (7 goals), O. Giroud (7 goals), with creative support from M. Fernandez-Pardo (5 assists), F. Correia (5 assists), R. Perraud (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with H. Igamane, O. Toure, M. Caillard, N. Ngoy unavailable.

Nice Analysis

Nice approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 28 points from 29 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 34:56, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Sofiane Diop (7 goals), E. Wahi (4 goals), M. Cho (4 goals), with creative support from J. Clauss (6 assists), M. Cho (3 assists), Sofiane Diop (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. Bombito, Y. Ndayishimiye, E. Pereira, H. Boudaoui, M. Sanson unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lille won 4 times, Nice won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Lille's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Lille 4-2-3-1 / Nice 3-5-1-1
Missing players: Lille 5, Nice 8
H2H summary: Lille wins 4, draws 6, Nice wins 4
Stats
Lille Lille
Nice Nice
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 3
9 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 3
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Goal 1
3 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 1
5 Shots insidebox 1
4 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
590 Total passes 375
518 Passes accurate 297
0.54 expected_goals 0.19
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lille
Formation
Nice
B. Ozer
B. Ozer
T. Meunier
T. Meunier
C. Mbemba
C. Mbemba
A. Mandi
A. Mandi
R. Perraud
R. Perraud
B. Andre
B. Andre
A. Bouaddi
A. Bouaddi
N. Mukau
N. Mukau
H. Haraldsson
H. Haraldsson
F. Correia
F. Correia
M. Fernandez-Pardo
M. Fernandez-Pardo
Y. Diouf
Y. Diouf
J. Clauss
J. Clauss
A. Mendy
A. Mendy
J. Bah
J. Bah
K. Peprah
K. Peprah
M. Bard
M. Bard
M. Cho
M. Cho
S. Abdul Samed
S. Abdul Samed
T. Ndombele
T. Ndombele
S. Diop
S. Diop
E. Wahi
E. Wahi
Lille 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Ozer
🟨 90+8'
G
12
T. Meunier
D
18
C. Mbemba
🟨 30'
D
23
A. Mandi
D
15
R. Perraud
D
21
B. Andre
M
32
A. Bouaddi
↓ 78'
M
17
N. Mukau
↓ 56' 🟨 21'
M
10
H. Haraldsson
M
27
F. Correia
↓ 56'
M
7
M. Fernandez-Pardo
↓ 90+1'
F
Substitutes
16
A. Bodart
G
9
O. Giroud
↑ 56'
F
11
O. Sahraoui
↑ 78'
F
4
Alexsandro
D
8
E. Mbappe
↑ 56'
M
20
N. Edjouma
F
24
C. Verdonk
D
28
G. Perrin
↑ 90+1'
F
22
T. Santos
D
Nice 5-4-1
Starting XI
80
Y. Diouf
G
92
J. Clauss
↓ 83'
D
33
A. Mendy
D
28
J. Bah
D
37
K. Peprah
D
26
M. Bard
D
25
M. Cho
↓ 83'
M
99
S. Abdul Samed
M
22
T. Ndombele
↓ 84'
M
10
S. Diop
↓ 90'
M
11
E. Wahi
↓ 90'
F
Substitutes
31
M. Dupe
G
2
A. Abdi
D
32
K. Boudache
↑ 90'
F
47
T. Gouveia
↑ 90'
F
21
I. Jansson
↑ 83' 🟨 90+7'
F
20
T. Louchet
↑ 83'
M
36
B. Mantsounga
D
23
G. Bernardeau
M
39
D. Coulibaly
↑ 84'
M
Last matches: Lille
17.05.26
Lig
Lille
Auxerre
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lille
Monaco
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Lille
Le Havre
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Lille
Paris FC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Lille
Toulouse
4
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
Lille
Lens
3
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Lille
Marseille
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
Lille
Aston Villa
0
2
L
15.03.26
Lig
Lille
Rennes
2
1
W
12.03.26
UEF
Lille
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Lille
Lorient
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lille
Nantes
1
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
Lille
FK Crvena Zvezda
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Lille
Angers
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Lille
FK Crvena Zvezda
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lig
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
06.02.26
Lig
Lille
Metz
0
0
D
01.02.26
Lig
Lille
Lyon
0
1
L
29.01.26
UEF
Lille
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
25.01.26
Lig
Lille
Strasbourg
1
4
L
Last matches: Nice
29.05.26
Lig
Nice
Saint Etienne
4
1
W
26.05.26
Lig
Nice
Saint Etienne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Cou
Nice
Lens
1
3
L
17.05.26
Lig
Nice
Metz
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Nice
Auxerre
1
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
Nice
Lens
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Nice
Marseille
1
1
D
22.04.26
Cou
Nice
Strasbourg
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Nice
Le Havre
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Nice
Strasbourg
1
3
L
21.03.26
Lig
Nice
Paris Saint Germain
0
4
L
14.03.26
Lig
Nice
Angers
2
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
Nice
Rennes
0
4
L
04.03.26
Cou
Nice
Lorient
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Nice
Paris FC
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Nice
Lorient
3
3
D
15.02.26
Lig
Nice
Lyon
0
2
L
08.02.26
Lig
Nice
Monaco
0
0
D
04.02.26
Cou
Nice
Montpellier
3
2
W
01.02.26
Lig
Nice
Stade Brestois 29
2
2
D
H2H: Lille vs Nice
18.04.26
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
29.10.25
H2H
Nice
Lille
2
0
L
17.01.25
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
1
W
10.11.24
H2H
Nice
Lille
2
2
D
19.05.24
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
2
D
11.08.23
H2H
Nice
Lille
1
1
D
29.01.23
H2H
Nice
Lille
1
0
L
31.08.22
H2H
Lille
Nice
1
2
L
14.05.22
H2H
Nice
Lille
1
3
W
14.08.21
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
4
L
01.05.21
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
0
W
25.10.20
H2H
Nice
Lille
1
1
D
18.04.20
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
28.09.19
H2H
Nice
Lille
1
1
D
01.02.19
H2H
Lille
Nice
4
0
W
Last matches: Lille
17.05.26
Lig
Lille
Auxerre
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Lille
Le Havre
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Lille
Lens
3
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Lille
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Lille
Lorient
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lille
Nantes
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Lille
FK Crvena Zvezda
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lig
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
Lille
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
25.01.26
Lig
Lille
Strasbourg
1
4
L
11.01.26
Cou
Lille
Lyon
1
2
L
03.01.26
Lig
Lille
Rennes
0
2
L
05.12.25
Lig
Lille
Marseille
1
0
W
27.11.25
UEF
Lille
Dinamo Zagreb
4
0
W
23.11.25
Lig
Lille
Paris FC
4
2
W
02.11.25
Lig
Lille
Angers
1
0
W
26.10.25
Lig
Lille
Metz
6
1
W
23.10.25
UEF
Lille
PAOK
3
4
L
05.10.25
Lig
Lille
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
28.09.25
Lig
Lille
Lyon
0
1
L
H2H at home: Lille
18.04.26
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
17.01.25
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
1
W
19.05.24
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
2
D
31.08.22
H2H
Lille
Nice
1
2
L
14.08.21
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
4
L
01.05.21
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
0
W
18.04.20
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
01.02.19
H2H
Lille
Nice
4
0
W
Last matches: Nice
26.05.26
Lig
Nice
Saint Etienne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Cou
Nice
Lens
1
3
L
10.05.26
Lig
Nice
Auxerre
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Nice
Marseille
1
1
D
22.04.26
Cou
Nice
Strasbourg
2
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
Nice
Strasbourg
1
3
L
14.03.26
Lig
Nice
Angers
2
0
W
04.03.26
Cou
Nice
Lorient
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Nice
Paris FC
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
Nice
Lyon
0
2
L
29.01.26
UEF
Nice
Ludogorets
0
1
L
25.01.26
Lig
Nice
Nantes
4
1
W
17.01.26
Lig
Nice
Toulouse
1
5
L
11.01.26
Cou
Nice
Nantes
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Nice
Lens
0
2
L
30.11.25
Lig
Nice
Lorient
1
3
L
27.11.25
UEF
Nice
FC Porto
0
3
L
09.11.25
Lig
Nice
Metz
1
2
L
01.11.25
Lig
Nice
Paris Saint Germain
0
1
L
26.10.25
Lig
Nice
Rennes
2
1
W
H2H away: Nice
18.04.26
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
17.01.25
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
1
L
19.05.24
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
2
D
31.08.22
H2H
Lille
Nice
1
2
W
14.08.21
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
4
W
01.05.21
H2H
Lille
Nice
2
0
L
18.04.20
H2H
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
01.02.19
H2H
Lille
Nice
4
0
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3
Lille Home
34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16
Nice Away
34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lille 5 missing
-
H. Igamane
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Toure
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Caillard
Missing Fixture Elbow Injury
OUT
-
N. Ngoy
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
N. Bentaleb
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Nice 8 missing
-
M. Bombito
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
Y. Ndayishimiye
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
E. Pereira
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Abdelmonem
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Dante
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
H. Boudaoui
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
M. Sanson
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
C. Vanhoutte
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT