FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Referee: G. Paradis
Lille
Match Timeline
Le Havre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Le Havre
29'
H. Haraldsson · Assist: R. Perraud
Lille
33'
I. Soumare
Le Havre
🟨
35'
Ayumu Seko
Le Havre
🟨
43'
Thomas Meunier
Lille
🟨
59'
Aïssa Mandi
Lille
🔄
64'
F. Doucoure ↔ T. Pembele
Le Havre
🔄
65'
S. Boufal ↔ Y. Kechta
Le Havre
🔄
66'
N. Mukau ↔ E. Mbappe
Lille
🟨
73'
Issa Soumaré
Le Havre
🔄
74'
F. Correia ↔ O. Giroud
Lille
🔄
74'
R. Perraud ↔ C. Verdonk
Lille
🔄
75'
Y. Zouaoui ↔ E. K. Vinette
Le Havre
🔄
84'
A. Bouaddi ↔ G. Perrin
Lille
🔄
85'
T. Meunier ↔ T. Santos
Lille
🔄
88'
A. Samatta ↔ E. Youte Kinkoue
Le Havre

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lille Win 86.2%
Draw 4.9%
Le Havre Win 8.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille1.42
Le Havre0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lille Lille
WWDLW
65 GF / 49 GA
Le Havre Le Havre
WLDWL
29 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
16
BTTS Yes
16
18
Over 2.5
11
4.56
Shots on Goal
3.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lille Lille 45 matches
Le Havre Le Havre 32 matches
Lille Statistic Le Havre
23 Wins 6
6 Draws 13
16 Losses 13
65 Goals For 29
49 Goals Against 44
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
16 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 20
18 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 6
17 Clean Sheets 7
14 Failed To Score 14
4.56 Shots On Goal 3.69
13.31 Total Shots 11.66
5.76 Corners 4.44
56% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lille's more proactive style and Le Havre's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Le Havre. Lille come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lille expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Le Havre in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Le Havre having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Lille arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 57 points compared to Le Havre in 14 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Lille Analysis

Lille approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 57 points after 31 outings. The return of 17 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 50:34, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Fernandez-Pardo (8 goals), H. Haraldsson (7 goals), O. Giroud (7 goals), with creative support from M. Fernandez-Pardo (5 assists), F. Correia (5 assists), R. Perraud (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Le Havre Analysis

With 31 points from 31 games and a place of 14, Le Havre still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 13 draws, and 12 defeats with a 29:42 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on I. Soumare (6 goals), R. Ndiaye (4 goals), F. Doucoure (3 goals), with creative support from I. Soumare (5 assists), R. Ndiaye (4 assists), Sofiane Boufal (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Lille won 5 times, Le Havre won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:5 from Lille's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Lille 4-2-3-1 / Le Havre 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Lille 6, Le Havre 4
H2H summary: Lille wins 5, draws 1, Le Havre wins 1
Stats
Lille Lille
Le Havre Le Havre
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
0
14 Corner Kicks 5
9 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 3
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 2
10 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 1
6 Blocked Shots 0
16 Shots insidebox 2
6 Shots outsidebox 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 9
489 Total passes 249
428 Passes accurate 177
1.55 expected_goals 0.14
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lille
Formation
Le Havre
B. Ozer
B. Ozer
T. Meunier
T. Meunier
N. Ngoy
N. Ngoy
A. Mandi
A. Mandi
R. Perraud
🎯
R. Perraud
A. Bouaddi
A. Bouaddi
B. Andre
B. Andre
N. Mukau
N. Mukau
H. Haraldsson
H. Haraldsson
F. Correia
F. Correia
M. Fernandez-Pardo
M. Fernandez-Pardo
M. Diaw
M. Diaw
L. Nego
L. Nego
A. Seko
A. Seko
G. Lloris
G. Lloris
Y. Zouaoui
Y. Zouaoui
S. Ebonog
S. Ebonog
L. Gourna-Douath
L. Gourna-Douath
F. Doucoure
F. Doucoure
S. Boufal
S. Boufal
I. Soumare
I. Soumare
A. Samatta
A. Samatta
Lille 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Ozer
G
12
T. Meunier
↓ 85' 🟨 43'
D
3
N. Ngoy
D
23
A. Mandi
🟨 59'
D
15
R. Perraud
🎯 29' ↓ 74'
D
32
A. Bouaddi
↓ 84'
M
21
B. Andre
M
17
N. Mukau
↓ 66'
M
10
H. Haraldsson
⚽ 29'
M
27
F. Correia
↓ 74'
M
7
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
Substitutes
16
A. Bodart
G
9
O. Giroud
↑ 74'
F
11
O. Sahraoui
F
4
Alexsandro
D
8
E. Mbappe
↑ 66'
M
18
C. Mbemba
D
24
C. Verdonk
↑ 74'
D
28
G. Perrin
↑ 84'
F
22
T. Santos
↑ 85'
D
Le Havre 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
M. Diaw
G
7
L. Nego
D
15
A. Seko
🟨 35'
D
4
G. Lloris
D
18
Y. Zouaoui
↓ 75'
D
26
S. Ebonog
M
19
L. Gourna-Douath
🟨 5'
M
13
F. Doucoure
↓ 64'
M
17
S. Boufal
↓ 65'
M
45
I. Soumare
⚽ 33' 🟨 73'
M
25
A. Samatta
↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
77
L. Mpasi-Nzau
G
10
F. Mambimbi
F
11
G. Kyeremeh
F
8
Y. Kechta
↑ 65'
M
33
Y. Beau Djellel
F
32
T. Pembele
↑ 64'
D
6
E. Youte Kinkoue
↑ 88'
D
78
D. N. Mosengo
M
27
E. K. Vinette
↑ 75'
F
Last matches: Lille
08.08.26
Fri
Lille
Hamburger SV
2
2
D
01.08.26
Fri
Lille
OH Leuven
6
3
W
25.07.26
Fri
Lille
Union St. Gilloise
1
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Lille
RAAL La Louvière
3
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Lille
Auxerre
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lille
Monaco
1
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Lille
Paris FC
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Lille
Toulouse
4
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
Lille
Lens
3
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Lille
Marseille
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
Lille
Aston Villa
0
2
L
15.03.26
Lig
Lille
Rennes
2
1
W
12.03.26
UEF
Lille
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Lille
Lorient
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lille
Nantes
1
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
Lille
FK Crvena Zvezda
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Lille
Angers
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Lille
FK Crvena Zvezda
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lig
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
Last matches: Le Havre
08.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Oviedo
2
3
L
04.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Ipswich
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
Laval
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
RED Star FC 93
2
1
W
17.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
Amiens
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lorient
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Marseille
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Metz
4
4
D
18.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Angers
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nice
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris FC
2
3
L
15.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lyon
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nantes
0
2
L
15.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Toulouse
2
1
W
08.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
2
1
W
30.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lens
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Monaco
0
0
D
H2H: Lille vs Le Havre
03.05.26
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
1
1
D
30.11.25
H2H
Le Havre
Lille
0
1
W
08.02.25
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
1
2
L
28.09.24
H2H
Le Havre
Lille
0
3
W
17.02.24
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
3
0
W
01.10.23
H2H
Le Havre
Lille
0
2
W
26.07.23
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
3
2
W
Last matches: Lille
18.07.26
Fri
Lille
RAAL La Louvière
3
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Lille
Auxerre
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Lille
Nice
0
0
D
04.04.26
Lig
Lille
Lens
3
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Lille
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Lille
Lorient
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lille
Nantes
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Lille
FK Crvena Zvezda
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lig
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
Lille
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
25.01.26
Lig
Lille
Strasbourg
1
4
L
11.01.26
Cou
Lille
Lyon
1
2
L
03.01.26
Lig
Lille
Rennes
0
2
L
05.12.25
Lig
Lille
Marseille
1
0
W
27.11.25
UEF
Lille
Dinamo Zagreb
4
0
W
23.11.25
Lig
Lille
Paris FC
4
2
W
02.11.25
Lig
Lille
Angers
1
0
W
26.10.25
Lig
Lille
Metz
6
1
W
23.10.25
UEF
Lille
PAOK
3
4
L
05.10.25
Lig
Lille
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
H2H at home: Lille
03.05.26
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
1
1
D
08.02.25
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
1
2
L
17.02.24
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
3
0
W
26.07.23
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
3
2
W
Last matches: Le Havre
08.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Oviedo
2
3
L
04.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Ipswich
0
1
L
17.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lorient
2
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Angers
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nice
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris FC
2
3
L
08.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nantes
0
2
L
30.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lens
0
1
L
18.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Rennes
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Le Havre
Lyon
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lig
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
02.11.25
Lig
Le Havre
Toulouse
0
0
D
26.10.25
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
1
0
W
18.10.25
Lig
Le Havre
Marseille
2
6
L
28.09.25
Lig
Le Havre
Metz
0
0
D
14.09.25
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
0
1
L
16.08.25
Lig
Le Havre
Monaco
1
3
L
17.05.25
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
3
2
W
04.05.25
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
2
1
W
H2H away: Le Havre
03.05.26
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
1
1
D
08.02.25
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
1
2
W
17.02.24
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
3
0
L
26.07.23
H2H
Lille
Le Havre
3
2
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3
Lille Home
34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lille 6 missing
-
H. Igamane
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Toure
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Caillard
Questionable Elbow Injury
OUT
-
N. Bentaleb
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Broholm
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
N. Edjouma
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
Le Havre 4 missing
-
A. Toure
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Sangante
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
S. Zagadou
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
R. Ndiaye
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT