FRANCE LIGUE 1
03.05.2026 13:00
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Referee: G. Paradis
Lille
Match Timeline
Le Havre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Le Havre
29'
H. Haraldsson · Assist: R. Perraud
Lille
33'
I. Soumare
Le Havre
🟨
35'
Ayumu Seko
Le Havre
🟨
43'
Thomas Meunier
Lille
🟨
59'
Aïssa Mandi
Lille
🔄
64'
F. Doucoure ↔ T. Pembele
Le Havre
🔄
65'
S. Boufal ↔ Y. Kechta
Le Havre
🔄
66'
N. Mukau ↔ E. Mbappe
Lille
🟨
73'
Issa Soumaré
Le Havre
🔄
74'
F. Correia ↔ O. Giroud
Lille
🔄
74'
R. Perraud ↔ C. Verdonk
Lille
🔄
75'
Y. Zouaoui ↔ E. K. Vinette
Le Havre
🔄
84'
A. Bouaddi ↔ G. Perrin
Lille
🔄
85'
T. Meunier ↔ T. Santos
Lille
🔄
88'
A. Samatta ↔ E. Youte Kinkoue
Le Havre

Lille vs Le Havre Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lille Win 86.2%
Draw 4.9%
Le Havre Win 8.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille1.43
Le Havre0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lille Lille
WWDLW
66 GF / 49 GA
Le Havre Le Havre
WLDWL
29 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
16
BTTS Yes
16
18
Over 2.5
11
4.56
Shots on Goal
3.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lille Lille 45 matches
Le Havre Le Havre 32 matches
Lille Statistic Le Havre
23 Wins 6
6 Draws 13
16 Losses 13
66 Goals For 29
49 Goals Against 44
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
16 BTTS Yes 16
27 Over 1.5 20
18 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 6
17 Clean Sheets 7
14 Failed To Score 14
4.56 Shots On Goal 3.69
13.31 Total Shots 11.66
5.76 Corners 4.44
56% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lille's more proactive style and Le Havre's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Le Havre. Lille come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lille expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Le Havre in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Le Havre having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Lille arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 57 points compared to Le Havre in 14 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Lille Analysis

Lille approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 57 points after 31 outings. The return of 17 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 50:34, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Fernandez-Pardo (8 goals), H. Haraldsson (7 goals), O. Giroud (7 goals), with creative support from M. Fernandez-Pardo (5 assists), F. Correia (5 assists), R. Perraud (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Le Havre Analysis

With 31 points from 31 games and a place of 14, Le Havre still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 13 draws, and 12 defeats with a 29:42 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on I. Soumare (6 goals), R. Ndiaye (4 goals), F. Doucoure (3 goals), with creative support from I. Soumare (5 assists), R. Ndiaye (4 assists), Sofiane Boufal (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Lille won 5 times, Le Havre won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:5 from Lille's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Lille 4-2-3-1 / Le Havre 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Lille 6, Le Havre 4
H2H summary: Lille wins 5, draws 1, Le Havre wins 1

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3
Lille Home
34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation