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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
17.10.2026 16:30
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.3%
Odds 1.92
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.14
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.3%
1.92 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.14 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.3%
1.29 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 59.3%
Draw 15%
Guayaquil City FC Win 25.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.21
Guayaquil City FC1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
38 GF / 35 GA
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
WLDWL
40 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
15
BTTS Yes
19
15
Over 2.5
15
4.06
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 32 matches
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC 35 matches
Libertad Statistic Guayaquil City FC
13 Wins 12
8 Draws 10
11 Losses 13
38 Goals For 40
35 Goals Against 43
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
15 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 11
4.06 Shots On Goal 3.47
11.56 Total Shots 8.78
3.78 Corners 3
44.6% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Guayaquil City FC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Guayaquil City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Guayaquil City FC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Libertad Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Libertad have collected 41 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, while the 33:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (8 goals), G. Cortéz (5 goals), A. Chére (5 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (5 assists), A. Chére (2 assists), I. Zambrano (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guayaquil City FC Analysis

Guayaquil City FC are currently 9 in the standings with 39 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 33:36 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Mero (11 goals), D. Dorregaray (8 goals), D. Díaz (4 goals), with creative support from J. Ayovi (5 assists), E. Mero (3 assists), D. Díaz (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 1 times, Guayaquil City FC won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Libertad's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-4-1 / Guayaquil City FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 1, draws 2, Guayaquil City FC wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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