ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: Eloy Vicente Beltran Moreira, Ecuador
Libertad
Match Timeline
Deportivo Cuenca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
12'
David González
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
27'
Ignacio Mosquera
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
46'
V. Branda ↔ H. Batalla
Libertad
🔄
46'
B. Corozo ↔ C. Valencia
Libertad
🔄
46'
S. Bueno ↔ D. Coronel
Libertad
🟨
56'
Jorge Ordóñez
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
59'
David González
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
60'
J. Ordonez ↔ N. Leguizamon
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
60'
M. Diaz ↔ G. Rivero
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
68'
E. Vega ↔ J. Chacon
Deportivo Cuenca
73'
D. Gonzalez · Assist: J. Chacon
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
76'
J. Guisamano ↔ A. Batioja
Libertad
🟨
78'
Bryan Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
80'
A. Chere ↔ J. Cifuentes
Libertad
🔄
84'
D. Gonzalez ↔ E. Guevara
Deportivo Cuenca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.5%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 36.2%
Draw 11.3%
Deportivo Cuenca Win 52.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.03
Deportivo Cuenca1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
12 GF / 17 GA
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WLDWL
19 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
7
3.62
Shots on Goal
3.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 13 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 15 matches
Libertad Statistic Deportivo Cuenca
3 Wins 8
5 Draws 2
5 Losses 5
12 Goals For 19
17 Goals Against 18
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
7 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 2
3.62 Shots On Goal 3.77
10.69 Total Shots 11.46
3.77 Corners 3.92
48.9% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Deportivo Cuenca in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Cuenca having the stronger overall control. Deportivo Cuenca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 20 points while Libertad sit 14 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Libertad have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Deportivo Cuenca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 14 points from 13 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats with a 12:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Chere (3 goals), G. J. Cortez Casierra (3 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 20 points after 13 matches. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:16, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Ordonez (4 goals), Matias Klimowicz (4 goals), G. Rivero (2 goals), with creative support from G. Rivero (2 assists), David González (2 assists), C. Arboleda (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 3 times, Deportivo Cuenca won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:9 from Libertad's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-3-2 / Deportivo Cuenca 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 3, draws 2, Deportivo Cuenca wins 3

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs