ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: L. Quinonez
Libertad
Match Timeline
Aucas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
A. Chere · Assist: S. Castro
Libertad
🟨
35'
B. Caicedo
Libertad
47'
S. Porozo · Assist: E. Preciado
Aucas
67'
R. Quinonez · Assist: S. Porozo
Aucas
70'
J. Guisamano · Assist: G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
72'
S. Castro ↔ V. Branda
Libertad
🔄
72'
A. Mena ↔ S. Tapiero
Aucas
🔄
72'
R. Quinonez ↔ R. Bolanos
Aucas
🟨
73'
S. Tapiero
Aucas
75'
G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🟨
77'
G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🟨
85'
R. Bolanos
Aucas
🔄
90+8'
J. Guisamano ↔ R. Zambrano
Libertad
🔄
90'
A. Chere ↔ M. Lucas
Libertad
🔄
90'
G. J. Cortez Casierra ↔ B. Corozo
Libertad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.9%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 32.5%
Draw 15.9%
Aucas Win 51.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad0.71
Aucas1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
8 GF / 14 GA
Aucas Aucas
WLDWL
13 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
1
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
5
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
2
3.27
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 11 matches
Aucas Aucas 13 matches
Libertad Statistic Aucas
2 Wins 6
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 3
8 Goals For 13
14 Goals Against 9
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
5 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 5
5 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 4
3.27 Shots On Goal 4.82
10.36 Total Shots 14.45
4 Corners 5.91
50.4% Ball Possession 57%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Aucas's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Aucas. Aucas look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Aucas carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 19 points while Libertad sit 15 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad sit 15 with 10 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats with a 8:14 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Chere (2 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), B. Caicedo (1 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (2 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aucas Analysis

Aucas approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 19 points after 11 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a 12:8 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on B. Miranda (6 goals), R. Quinonez (2 goals), A. Mena (1 goals), with creative support from Santiago Morales (2 assists), A. Mena (1 assists), Piero Guzmán (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 4 times, Aucas won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:12 from Libertad's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 4-1-4-1 / Aucas 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 4, draws 2, Aucas wins 2
Stats
Libertad Libertad
Aucas Aucas
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
4 Corner Kicks 5
12 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Goal 9
6 Shots off Goal 7
4 Blocked Shots 3
7 Shots insidebox 8
9 Shots outsidebox 11
7 Goalkeeper Saves 3
272 Total passes 468
201 Passes accurate 382
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Libertad
Formation
Aucas
D. Cabezas
D. Cabezas
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
A. Garcia
A. Garcia
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
S. Castro
🎯
S. Castro
C. Valencia
C. Valencia
I. Zambrano
I. Zambrano
J. Guisamano
J. Guisamano
E. Patta
E. Patta
G. J. Cortez Casierra
🎯
G. J. Cortez Casierra
A. Chere
A. Chere
H. Piedra
H. Piedra
A. Zova
A. Zova
L. Gustavino
L. Gustavino
J. Ontaneda
J. Ontaneda
S. Morales
S. Morales
R. Quinonez
R. Quinonez
E. Preciado
🎯
E. Preciado
P. Guzman
P. Guzman
A. L. Spina
A. L. Spina
A. Mena
A. Mena
S. Porozo
🎯
S. Porozo
Libertad 3-4-3 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
12
D. Cabezas
G
6
B. Caicedo
🟨 35'
D
36
A. Garcia
D
20
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
D
8
S. Castro
🎯 22' ↓ 72'
M
63
C. Valencia
M
7
I. Zambrano
M
23
J. Guisamano
⚽ 70' ↓ 90+8'
M
17
E. Patta
F
10
G. J. Cortez Casierra
⚽ 75' 🎯 70' ↓ 90' 🟨 77'
F
33
A. Chere
⚽ 22' ↓ 90'
F
Substitutes
22
J. Mina
G
66
J. Estacio
M
29
R. Zambrano
↑ 90+8'
D
11
H. Batalla
F
25
M. Lucas
↑ 90'
D
16
J. Cifuentes
F
19
B. Corozo
↑ 90'
M
49
D. Coronel
F
70
V. Branda
↑ 72'
F
13
A. Batioja
F
27
S. Bueno
M
9
E. Caicedo
F
Aucas 5-4-1 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
13
H. Piedra
G
37
A. Zova
D
16
L. Gustavino
D
3
J. Ontaneda
D
2
S. Morales
D
28
R. Quinonez
⚽ 67' ↓ 72'
D
10
E. Preciado
🎯 47'
M
21
P. Guzman
M
6
A. L. Spina
M
18
A. Mena
↓ 72'
M
33
S. Porozo
⚽ 47' 🎯 67'
F
Substitutes
1
I. Chaves
G
99
E. Japa
14
S. Tapiero
↑ 72' 🟨 73'
M
89
A. Sosa
F
20
D. S. Espinosa
F
31
B. Carabali
D
55
V. Olaya
D
57
M. Vera
F
11
R. Bolanos
↑ 72' 🟨 85'
Last matches: Libertad
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Aucas
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
09.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Leones del Norte
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
19.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
08.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
28.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
H2H: Libertad vs Aucas
02.05.26
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
23.08.25
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
06.05.25
H2H
Aucas
Libertad
2
0
L
26.10.24
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
1
1
D
04.09.24
H2H
Aucas
Libertad
0
1
W
05.05.24
H2H
Aucas
Libertad
2
0
L
27.08.23
H2H
Aucas
Libertad
1
2
W
01.04.23
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
2
2
D
Last matches: Libertad
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H at home: Libertad
02.05.26
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
23.08.25
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.10.24
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
1
1
D
01.04.23
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
2
2
D
Last matches: Aucas
31.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
17.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
23.04.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Leones del Norte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
H2H away: Aucas
02.05.26
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
L
23.08.25
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
L
26.10.24
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
1
1
D
01.04.23
H2H
Libertad
Aucas
2
2
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3
Aucas Away
17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs