ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.6%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.6%
1.33
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.02
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.6%
1.30
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 49.9%
Draw 4.4%
Universidad Catolica Win 45.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.12
Universidad Catolica1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
18 GF / 19 GA
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WLDWL
33 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
8
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
10
2.76
Shots on Goal
4.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 17 matches
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 20 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Universidad Catolica
5 Wins 8
5 Draws 5
7 Losses 7
18 Goals For 33
19 Goals Against 24
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
8 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 3
2.76 Shots On Goal 4.26
9.06 Total Shots 12.37
3.29 Corners 4.47
44.4% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Universidad Catolica's more proactive style and Leones del Norte's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Universidad Catolica. Universidad Catolica arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leones del Norte expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Universidad Catolica in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad Catolica having the stronger overall control. Universidad Catolica carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 26 points while Leones del Norte sit 13 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte are currently 13 in the standings with 17 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 15:18 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), Segundo Portocarrero (1 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), Darío Pazmiño (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 26 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 26:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Byron Palacios (4 goals), Daniel Clavijo (4 goals), Eddy Mejía (3 goals), with creative support from Mauro Díaz (5 assists), Eddy Mejía (2 assists), Byron Palacios (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 0 times, Universidad Catolica won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:3 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 3-4-3 / Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 0, draws 0, Universidad Catolica wins 1
Last matches: Leones del Norte
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
13.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
3
4
L
06.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad Catolica
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
H2H: Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica
08.03.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
3
0
L
Last matches: Leones del Norte
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
06.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad Catolica
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.12
Draw 3.51
Home 3.23
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.79
Draw 2.16
Home 3.97
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 1.75 1.40
Over 2.0 1.52
Over 2.25 1.78
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.32
Over 3.5 3.55
Under 1.5 3.22
Under 1.75 2.86
Under 2.0 2.48
Under 2.25 2.02
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.5 1.27
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.05
Draw 3.30
Home 3.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.10
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.40
Home 3.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.12
Draw 3.37
Home 3.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 2.04
Home 3.90
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.42
Draw 2.38
Home 3.54
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.38
Over 2.0 1.54
Over 2.25 1.74
Over 2.5 2.01
Over 2.75 2.31
Over 3.0 3.08
Over 3.25 3.20
Over 3.5 4.19
Over 3.75 4.45
Over 4.0 10.40
Over 4.25 6.75
Over 4.5 14.20
Over 5.5 18.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 18.50
Under 0.75 8.65
Under 1.0 16.00
Under 1.25 4.27
Under 1.5 3.58
Under 1.75 2.73
Under 2.0 2.47
Under 2.25 1.96
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 3.75 1.15
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.97
Draw 3.25
Home 3.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.63
Draw 2.10
Home 4.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.38
Home 3.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.37
Over 2.0 1.61
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.14
Over 2.75 2.50
Over 3.0 3.20
Over 3.25 3.55
Over 3.5 3.90
Over 3.75 4.80
Over 4.0 6.50
Under 1.5 2.80
Under 2.0 2.14
Under 2.25 1.80
Under 2.5 1.61
Under 2.75 1.46
Under 3.0 1.29
Under 3.25 1.24
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.07

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs