ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Referee: Oswaldo Contreras, Ecuador
Leones del Norte
Match Timeline
Mushuc Runa SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Nicolás Monserrat
Leones del Norte
🟨
12'
Kevin Peralta
Mushuc Runa SC
31'
E. Griffa · Assist: R. Arroyo
Leones del Norte
🔄
39'
B. Negro ↔ C. Orejuela
Mushuc Runa SC
40'
F. Mina · Assist: J. Gonzalez
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
45+12'
Ariel Aguas
Leones del Norte
VAR
45+6'
Segundo Portocarrero
Leones del Norte
45'
J. Anangono
Leones del Norte
🔄
62'
F. Castelli ↔ R. Carrillo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
62'
F. Mina ↔ T. Minda
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
63'
E. Griffa ↔ D. Pazmino
Leones del Norte
🔄
63'
C. Solano ↔ Caicedo Nestor
Leones del Norte
🔄
74'
C. Velez ↔ E. Pepinos
Leones del Norte
🔄
74'
K. Velasco ↔ E. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
74'
K. Peralta ↔ O. Pico
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
84'
J. Anangono ↔ J. Cabeza
Leones del Norte
🔄
85'
R. Arroyo ↔ F. Vargas
Leones del Norte
🟥
88'
Cristopher Angulo
Mushuc Runa SC
90'
D. Pazmino · Assist: Caicedo Nestor
Leones del Norte

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 70.4%
Draw 6.5%
Mushuc Runa SC Win 23.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte0.95
Mushuc Runa SC1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
10 GF / 14 GA
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WLDWL
16 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
4
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
6
2.69
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 13 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 13 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Mushuc Runa SC
3 Wins 4
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 5
10 Goals For 16
14 Goals Against 16
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
4 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 6
0 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 3
2.69 Shots On Goal 3.38
8.69 Total Shots 11.69
3.62 Corners 4.31
42.2% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Mushuc Runa SC's more proactive style and Leones del Norte's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mushuc Runa SC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Leones del Norte have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leones del Norte expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Mushuc Runa SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mushuc Runa SC having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 13 points from 13 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 10:14 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Anangono (3 goals), E. Griffa (2 goals), E. Pepinos (2 goals), with creative support from E. Pepinos (1 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), A. Aguas (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

So far, Mushuc Runa SC have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 16 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 15:13 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronie Carrillo (4 goals), F. Castelli (2 goals), Freddy Mina (2 goals), with creative support from K. Velasco (3 assists), Ronie Carrillo (1 assists), Freddy Mina (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 1 times, Mushuc Runa SC won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 3-4-3 / Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 1, draws 1, Mushuc Runa SC wins 0

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs