ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Referee: Kevin Tilson Poveda Montanero, Ecuador
Leones del Norte
Match Timeline
Guayaquil City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
P. Gonzalez · Assist: E. Mero
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
21'
Roger Arias
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
24'
Martín Caramuto
Leones del Norte
🟨
32'
Miller Bolaños
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
45+1'
Gilmar Napa
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
46'
M. Caramuto ↔ E. Pepinos
Leones del Norte
61'
D. Pazmino · Assist: C. Solano
Leones del Norte
🔄
68'
P. Gonzalez ↔ A. Naula
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
68'
D. Diaz ↔ E. Cabezas
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
68'
J. Quinonez ↔ E. P. Ladines Calvache
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
70'
C. Velez ↔ P. Madero
Leones del Norte
🔄
81'
C. Solano ↔ S. Portocarrero
Leones del Norte
🔄
81'
D. Pazmino ↔ Caicedo Nestor
Leones del Norte
🔄
81'
M. Luque ↔ A. Aguas
Leones del Norte
🔄
82'
M. Bolanos ↔ D. Dorregaray
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
89'
Jordan Morán
Leones del Norte
🔄
90+4'
E. Mero ↔ M. Palma
Guayaquil City FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.9%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 66.9%
Draw 5.1%
Guayaquil City FC Win 28%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.08
Guayaquil City FC0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
21 GF / 20 GA
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
WLDWL
21 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
8
3.55
Shots on Goal
3.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 20 matches
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC 23 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Guayaquil City FC
7 Wins 8
6 Draws 5
7 Losses 10
21 Goals For 21
20 Goals Against 26
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 8
3.55 Shots On Goal 3.05
11.65 Total Shots 8.15
3.75 Corners 3.05
45.6% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Guayaquil City FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Guayaquil City FC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte are currently 8 in the standings with 24 points from 19 matches. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 20:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), Segundo Portocarrero (1 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), D. Pazmiño (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guayaquil City FC Analysis

Guayaquil City FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 22 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 16:21 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Mero (7 goals), D. Díaz (4 goals), P. González (2 goals), with creative support from J. Ayovi (4 assists), D. Díaz (2 assists), S. Laurino (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 3 times, Guayaquil City FC won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 3-4-3 / Guayaquil City FC 3-4-3
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 3, draws 5, Guayaquil City FC wins 2
Stats
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
16
Shots off Goal
0
Blocked Shots
10
Blocked Shots
2
9 Corner Kicks 1
11 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 1
59% Ball Possession 41%
33 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Goal 5
16 Shots off Goal 0
10 Blocked Shots 2
16 Shots insidebox 5
17 Shots outsidebox 2
4 Goalkeeper Saves 6
401 Total passes 293
331 Passes accurate 217
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Leones del Norte
Formation
Guayaquil City FC
L. Nazareno
L. Nazareno
M. Luque
M. Luque
N. Monserrat
N. Monserrat
J. Moran
J. Moran
M. De La Cruz
M. De La Cruz
M. Caramuto
M. Caramuto
E. Griffa
E. Griffa
C. Velez
C. Velez
C. Solano
🎯
C. Solano
J. Anangono
J. Anangono
D. Pazmino
D. Pazmino
G. Napa
G. Napa
J. J. Ayovi Caicedo
J. J. Ayovi Caicedo
Y. Rodriguez
Y. Rodriguez
J. Quinonez
J. Quinonez
R. Arias
R. Arias
D. Arroyo
D. Arroyo
S. Laurino
S. Laurino
M. Bolanos
M. Bolanos
P. Gonzalez
P. Gonzalez
D. Diaz
D. Diaz
E. Mero
🎯
E. Mero
Leones del Norte 4-4-2
Starting XI
45
L. Nazareno
G
7
M. Luque
↓ 81'
D
23
N. Monserrat
D
2
J. Moran
16
M. De La Cruz
D
11
M. Caramuto
↓ 46' 🟨 24'
M
6
E. Griffa
M
8
C. Velez
↓ 70'
M
99
C. Solano
🎯 61' ↓ 81'
M
40
J. Anangono
70
D. Pazmino
⚽ 61' ↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
22
J. Arroyo
G
34
S. Portocarrero
↑ 81'
D
50
M. Caicedo
D
55
R. Borja
M
3
F. Vargas
D
27
Caicedo Nestor
↑ 81'
F
32
A. Aguas
↑ 81'
29
P. Madero
↑ 70'
M
19
E. Pepinos
↑ 46'
M
13
J. Cabeza
M
14
A. Folleco
D
Guayaquil City FC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
G. Napa
🟨 45+1'
G
17
J. J. Ayovi Caicedo
3
Y. Rodriguez
29
J. Quinonez
↓ 68'
D
6
R. Arias
🟨 21'
D
14
D. Arroyo
M
20
S. Laurino
M
23
M. Bolanos
↓ 82' 🟨 32'
M
80
P. Gonzalez
⚽ 10' ↓ 68'
M
10
D. Diaz
↓ 68'
M
11
E. Mero
🎯 10' ↓ 90+4'
F
Substitutes
12
R. Perea
19
A. Naula
↑ 68'
M
21
D. Dorregaray
↑ 82'
F
51
E. Cabezas
↑ 68'
D
4
E. P. Ladines Calvache
↑ 68'
16
J. Ordonez
M
28
J. Vivar
F
9
M. Palma
↑ 90+4'
F
15
K. Sambonino
M
50
F. Rivadeneira
M
Last matches: Leones del Norte
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
Last matches: Guayaquil City FC
02.08.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Macara
1
2
L
27.07.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad Catolica
0
0
D
19.07.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Manta FC
1
0
W
16.07.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
11.07.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
2
1
W
08.07.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Aucas
0
1
L
31.05.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Independiente del Valle
2
4
L
23.05.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
19.05.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Orense SC
0
1
L
09.05.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
LDU de Quito
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
21.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Emelec
3
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Macara
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad Catolica
1
4
L
23.03.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Manta FC
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
H2H: Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC
23.07.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
23.03.26
H2H
Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
0
0
D
29.10.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
27.08.25
H2H
Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
2
1
L
23.07.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
2
1
W
15.05.25
H2H
Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
0
1
W
18.10.24
H2H
Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
2
0
L
29.08.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
30.05.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
03.04.24
H2H
Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
0
0
D
Last matches: Leones del Norte
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
H2H at home: Leones del Norte
23.07.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
29.10.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
23.07.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
2
1
W
29.08.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
30.05.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
Last matches: Guayaquil City FC
02.08.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Macara
1
2
L
16.07.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
08.07.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Aucas
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
02.05.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
LDU de Quito
0
1
L
21.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Emelec
3
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Universidad Catolica
1
4
L
18.03.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Manta FC
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Guayaquil City FC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Guayaquil City FC
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
01.02.26
Fri
Guayaquil City FC
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
H2H away: Guayaquil City FC
23.07.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
29.10.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
23.07.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
2
1
L
29.08.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
L
30.05.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D