ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Referee: G. Gonzalez
Leones del Norte
Match Timeline
Emelec
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Charles Vélez
Leones del Norte
🟨
22'
Víctor Griffith
Emelec
🟨
32'
Jonathan Arroyo
Leones del Norte
🟨
43'
José Cevallos
Emelec
🟨
45+11'
Dario Pazmino
Leones del Norte
🟨
45+11'
Stalin Valencia
Emelec
45'
S. Portocarrero · Assist: A. Aguas
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
J. Cevallos ↔ F. Pizzini
Emelec
59'
E. Griffa
Leones del Norte
🔄
64'
T. Coppo ↔ R. Borja
Leones del Norte
🔄
64'
S. Portocarrero ↔ M. De La Cruz
Leones del Norte
🔄
64'
I. Guerrico ↔ L. Klimowicz
Emelec
🔄
73'
D. Pazmino ↔ C. Solano
Leones del Norte
🔄
73'
E. Griffa ↔ J. Cabeza
Leones del Norte
🔄
80'
A. Mina ↔ G. Napoli
Emelec
🔄
80'
J. Neris ↔ J. Gonzaga
Emelec
🔄
81'
A. Aguas ↔ F. Vargas
Leones del Norte

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 60.3%
Draw 0%
Emelec Win 39.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte0.91
Emelec0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
8 GF / 12 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
9 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
2
2.82
Shots on Goal
3.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 11 matches
Emelec Emelec 11 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Emelec
2 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
5 Losses 5
8 Goals For 9
12 Goals Against 13
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
4 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 2
0 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 4
2.82 Shots On Goal 3.18
8.82 Total Shots 10.09
3.64 Corners 4.36
42.2% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Emelec. Leones del Norte have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 14 with 10 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 8:12 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Anangono (3 goals), E. Pepinos (2 goals), Cristhian Solano (1 goals), with creative support from E. Pepinos (1 assists), A. Mansilla (1 assists), D. Pazmino (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 14 points from 11 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 9:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luca Klimowicz (2 goals), R. Caicedo (2 goals), I. Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), I. Guerrico (1 assists), A. Mina (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 1 times, Emelec won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:0 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 4-4-2 / Emelec 4-4-2
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 1, draws 1, Emelec wins 0
Stats
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
Emelec Emelec
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
1
3 Corner Kicks 6
10 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 7
1 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 8
1 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
307 Total passes 349
232 Passes accurate 256
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Leones del Norte
Formation
Emelec
L. Nazareno
L. Nazareno
A. Aguas
🎯
A. Aguas
N. Monserrat
N. Monserrat
J. Moran
J. Moran
R. Arroyo
R. Arroyo
T. Coppo
T. Coppo
C. Velez
C. Velez
S. Portocarrero
S. Portocarrero
D. Pazmino
D. Pazmino
J. Anangono
J. Anangono
E. Griffa
E. Griffa
P. Ortiz
P. Ortiz
R. Caicedo
R. Caicedo
S. Quintero
S. Quintero
A. Leguizamon
A. Leguizamon
S. Valencia
S. Valencia
I. Guerrico
I. Guerrico
A. Mina
A. Mina
J. Cevallos
J. Cevallos
V. Griffith
V. Griffith
J. Neris
J. Neris
L. Fragozo
L. Fragozo
Leones del Norte 3-4-3
Starting XI
45
L. Nazareno
G
32
A. Aguas
🎯 45' ↓ 81'
23
N. Monserrat
D
2
J. Moran
4
R. Arroyo
🟨 32'
M
5
T. Coppo
↓ 64'
M
8
C. Velez
🟨 8'
M
34
S. Portocarrero
⚽ 45' ↓ 64'
M
70
D. Pazmino
↓ 73' 🟨 45+11'
F
40
J. Anangono
6
E. Griffa
⚽ 59' ↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
24
J. L. Angulo
G
22
J. Arroyo
G
99
C. Solano
↑ 73'
M
50
M. Caicedo
D
11
M. Caramuto
M
55
R. Borja
↑ 64'
M
3
F. Vargas
↑ 81'
D
27
Caicedo Nestor
F
44
K. Mina
16
M. De La Cruz
↑ 64'
D
17
J. Mairongo
M
13
J. Cabeza
↑ 73'
M
Emelec 5-3-2
Starting XI
12
P. Ortiz
G
14
R. Caicedo
D
16
S. Quintero
D
2
A. Leguizamon
D
51
S. Valencia
3
I. Guerrico
↓ 64'
D
5
A. Mina
↓ 80'
M
21
J. Cevallos
↓ 46' 🟨 43'
M
6
V. Griffith
🟨 22'
M
9
J. Neris
↓ 80'
F
15
L. Fragozo
F
Substitutes
1
M. Valero
G
8
G. Napoli
↑ 80'
M
80
O. Herrera
D
7
L. Klimowicz
↑ 64'
F
10
F. Pizzini
↑ 46'
F
19
J. Ruiz
F
4
E. Segura
D
20
J. Gonzaga
↑ 80'
F
24
A. Viteri
18
M. Carabali
Last matches: Leones del Norte
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
Last matches: Emelec
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
07.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
01.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
H2H: Leones del Norte vs Emelec
03.05.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
08.10.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
0
0
D
Last matches: Leones del Norte
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
H2H at home: Leones del Norte
03.05.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
08.10.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
0
0
D
Last matches: Emelec
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
L
07.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
H2H away: Emelec
03.05.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
L
08.10.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
0
0
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs