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18.10.2026 19:00
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Leones del Norte vs Emelec Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds 2.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
2.00 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.20 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.48 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 58.4%
Draw 19.7%
Emelec Win 21.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.09
Emelec0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
32 GF / 36 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
28 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
15
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
8
3.94
Shots on Goal
3.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 32 matches
Emelec Emelec 32 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Emelec
10 Wins 10
10 Draws 9
12 Losses 13
32 Goals For 28
36 Goals Against 39
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
15 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 3
10 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 11
3.94 Shots On Goal 3.41
12.88 Total Shots 11.09
4.19 Corners 4.31
47.3% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Emelec. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Leones del Norte have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leones del Norte expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Emelec in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Emelec having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 8 with 39 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 31:32, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Juan Luis Anangonó León (6 goals), D. Pazmiño (3 goals), C. Solano (3 goals), with creative support from R. Arroyo (3 assists), D. Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 39 points from 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 25:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Klimowicz (6 goals), J. Ruíz (3 goals), I. Guerrico (2 goals), with creative support from Luis Fragozo (3 assists), F. Pizzini (3 assists), A. Mina (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 1 times, Emelec won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 4-1-4-1 / Emelec 4-4-2
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 1, draws 1, Emelec wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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