ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.8%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 44.1%
Draw 13.2%
Deportivo Cuenca Win 42.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.08
Deportivo Cuenca1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
18 GF / 19 GA
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WLDWL
22 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
8
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
7
2.76
Shots on Goal
3.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 17 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 19 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Deportivo Cuenca
5 Wins 10
5 Draws 3
7 Losses 6
18 Goals For 22
19 Goals Against 21
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
8 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 3
2.76 Shots On Goal 3.94
9.06 Total Shots 12.63
3.29 Corners 4.19
44.4% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportivo Cuenca. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte are currently 11 in the standings with 20 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 18:19 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), Segundo Portocarrero (1 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), D. Pazmiño (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 27 points from 17 games, Deportivo Cuenca bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 18:19, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 0 times, Deportivo Cuenca won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 3-4-3 / Deportivo Cuenca 3-4-3
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 0, draws 1, Deportivo Cuenca wins 0
Last matches: Leones del Norte
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
Last matches: Deportivo Cuenca
05.07.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Barcelona SC
0
2
L
31.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
16.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Libertad
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Mushuc Runa SC
1
4
L
22.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
1
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Emelec
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Macara
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Aucas
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
22.02.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
Deportivo Cuenca
Macara
2
1
W
08.02.26
Fri
Deportivo Cuenca
Guayaquil City FC
2
1
W
H2H: Leones del Norte vs Deportivo Cuenca
14.03.26
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
Last matches: Leones del Norte
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
Last matches: Deportivo Cuenca
05.07.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Barcelona SC
0
2
L
16.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Libertad
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Mushuc Runa SC
1
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
1
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Emelec
2
0
W
17.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Aucas
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
Deportivo Cuenca
Macara
2
1
W

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 17 7 5 5 28:17 11 26
L L W D L
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
9 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
10 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
11 17 5 5 7 18:19 -1 20
W D L W L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs