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24.10.2026 14:15
Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Leganes vs Mallorca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46.2%
- ▥
BTTS No
56%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-3
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Leganes Win 36.3%
Draw 17.5%
Mallorca Win 46.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leganes0.69
Mallorca1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leganes Leganes
WWDLW
15 GF / 23 GA
Mallorca Mallorca
WLDWL
22 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
0.54
5
BTTS Yes
3
7
Over 2.5
5
3.3
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leganes Leganes 19 matches
Mallorca Mallorca 13 matches
Leganes Statistic Mallorca
6 Wins 8
5 Draws 3
8 Losses 2
15 Goals For 22
23 Goals Against 7
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 0.54
5 BTTS Yes 3
11 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 4
3.3 Shots On Goal 3.89
10.5 Total Shots 12.22
3.1 Corners 4.56
44.1% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Mallorca's more proactive style and Leganes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leganes expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mallorca in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mallorca having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Leganes have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mallorca. Mallorca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 17 points while Leganes sit 17 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Leganes Analysis

Leganes sit 17 with 11 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats with a 6:15 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Naim García (2 goals), Ismaël Gharbi (2 goals), P. Soko (1 goals), with creative support from Naim García (1 assists), Ismaël Gharbi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mallorca Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 17 points from 9 games, Mallorca bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 11:4, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Fuentes (5 goals), Álex Sala (2 goals), Pablo Torre (1 goals), with creative support from Josep Cerdà (2 assists), Fuentes (1 assists), Álex Sala (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Leganes won 1 times, Mallorca won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Leganes's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.6%)
Predicted formations: Leganes 3-4-2-1 / Mallorca 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Leganes wins 1, draws 2, Mallorca wins 3

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 16:5 11 21
W W W W W
2 9 7 0 2 19:10 9 21
L W W W W
3 9 6 2 1 15:4 11 20
L D W W W
4 9 5 2 2 11:4 7 17
W D L W W
5 9 4 4 1 10:7 3 16
W D D W L
6 9 5 1 3 9:8 1 16
W W L W L
7 9 4 3 2 15:9 6 15
D D W W L
8 9 4 2 3 12:10 2 14
L L W W W
9 9 4 2 3 11:9 2 14
W L W L W
10 9 4 2 3 14:13 1 14
W W L L D
11 9 3 3 3 13:11 2 12
W D W D L
12 9 3 3 3 11:13 -2 12
D L D L W
13 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
W L W L W
14 9 3 2 4 14:15 -1 11
W L D L L
15 9 3 2 4 10:11 -1 11
W W L L W
16 9 3 2 4 13:16 -3 11
L D L L W
17 10 3 2 5 6:15 -9 11
L L L L W
18 9 3 1 5 13:15 -2 10
W D W L L
19 9 2 2 5 12:17 -5 8
L L L L W
20 9 1 4 4 11:11 0 7
L W D L L
21 9 1 2 6 8:20 -12 5
L D W D L
22 9 0 1 8 5:20 -15 1
L L L L D
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation