ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Elland Road
Referee: F. Hallam
Leeds
Match Timeline
Wolves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
J. Justin · Assist: N. Okafor
Leeds
20'
N. Okafor · Assist: B. Aaronson
Leeds
🔄
38'
A. Gomes ↔ M. Mane
Wolves
🔄
46'
J. Tchatchoua ↔ Pedro Lima
Wolves
🔄
67'
N. Okafor ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🔄
67'
J. Bellegarde ↔ R. Gomes
Wolves
🟨
73'
Brenden Aaronson
Leeds
🔄
75'
L. Krejci ↔ Hwang Hee-Chan
Wolves
🔄
78'
B. Aaronson ↔ I. Gruev
Leeds
🟨
90+12'
James Justin
Leeds
🟨
90+3'
Hugo Bueno
Wolves
🔄
90+6'
G. Gudmundsson ↔ J. Rodon
Leeds
🔄
90+6'
D. Calvert-Lewin ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
90+6'
A. Tanaka ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds
90'
D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Leeds Win 64.4%
Draw 11%
Wolves Win 24.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds1.51
Wolves1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leeds Leeds
WWDLW
48 GF / 53 GA
Wolves Wolves
WLDWL
32 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
22
BTTS Yes
16
20
Over 2.5
17
4.28
Shots on Goal
3.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leeds Leeds 36 matches
Wolves Wolves 35 matches
Leeds Statistic Wolves
10 Wins 5
14 Draws 8
12 Losses 22
48 Goals For 32
53 Goals Against 62
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
22 BTTS Yes 16
27 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 17
14 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 16
4.28 Shots On Goal 3.37
13.31 Total Shots 9.71
4.78 Corners 3.17
46.3% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Wolves seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leeds expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Wolves in 3-5-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wolves having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Leeds arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 15 with 36 points compared to Wolves in 20 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Wolves.

Leeds Analysis

Leeds sit 15 with 36 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 37:48, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Calvert-Lewin (10 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), Noah Okafor (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (4 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Wolves Analysis

Wolves sit 20 with 17 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 21 losses, together with goals at 24:58, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. S. Larsen (4 goals), Ladislav Krejčí (3 goals), R. Gomes (3 goals), with creative support from Adam Armstrong (2 assists), D. M. Wolfe (2 assists), J. S. Larsen (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Chiwome, E. Gonzalez, S. Johnstone, Y. Mosquera unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Leeds won 8 times, Wolves won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:21 from Leeds's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Leeds 3-4-2-1 / Wolves 3-5-1-1
Missing players: Leeds 3, Wolves 5
H2H summary: Leeds wins 8, draws 1, Wolves wins 6
Stats
Leeds Leeds
Wolves Wolves
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 6
9 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 1
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 3
15 Shots insidebox 7
2 Shots outsidebox 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
465 Total passes 357
378 Passes accurate 264
2.82 expected_goals 0.57
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Leeds
Formation
Wolves
K. Darlow
K. Darlow
J. Justin
J. Justin
J. Bijol
J. Bijol
P. Struijk
P. Struijk
J. Bogle
J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
G. Gudmundsson
B. Aaronson
🎯
B. Aaronson
N. Okafor
🎯
N. Okafor
D. Calvert-Lewin
D. Calvert-Lewin
D. Bentley
D. Bentley
S. Bueno
S. Bueno
Toti
Toti
L. Krejci
L. Krejci
J. Tchatchoua
J. Tchatchoua
Andre
Andre
Joao Gomes
Joao Gomes
H. Bueno
H. Bueno
J. Bellegarde
J. Bellegarde
A. Gomes
A. Gomes
A. Armstrong
A. Armstrong
Leeds 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
26
K. Darlow
G
24
J. Justin
⚽ 18' 🟨 90+12'
D
15
J. Bijol
D
5
P. Struijk
D
2
J. Bogle
M
4
E. Ampadu
M
22
A. Tanaka
↓ 90+6'
M
3
G. Gudmundsson
↓ 90+6'
M
11
B. Aaronson
🎯 20' ↓ 78' 🟨 73'
F
19
N. Okafor
⚽ 20' 🎯 18' ↓ 67'
F
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
⚽ 90' ↓ 90+6'
F
Substitutes
1
Lucas Perri
G
23
S. Bornauw
D
6
J. Rodon
↑ 90+6'
D
14
L. Nmecha
↑ 90+6'
F
8
S. Longstaff
↑ 90+6'
M
10
J. Piroe
F
44
I. Gruev
↑ 78'
M
29
W. Gnonto
↑ 67'
F
40
F. Buonanotte
M
Wolves 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
25
D. Bentley
G
4
S. Bueno
D
24
Toti
D
37
L. Krejci
↓ 75'
D
38
J. Tchatchoua
↓ 46'
M
7
Andre
M
8
Joao Gomes
M
3
H. Bueno
🟨 90+3'
M
27
J. Bellegarde
↓ 67'
F
47
A. Gomes
↓ 38'
F
9
A. Armstrong
F
Substitutes
40
A. Brooks
G
11
Hwang Hee-Chan
↑ 75'
F
6
D. M. Wolfe
D
14
T. Arokodare
F
21
R. Gomes
↑ 67'
D
59
S. Olagunju
D
36
M. Mane
↑ 38'
F
74
T. Edozie
17
Pedro Lima
↑ 46'
D
Last matches: Leeds
24.05.26
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
0
3
L
17.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
W
11.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
26.04.26
FA
Leeds
Chelsea
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
2
D
13.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
2
1
W
05.04.26
FA
Leeds
West Ham
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
08.03.26
FA
Leeds
Norwich
3
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
1
D
15.02.26
FA
Leeds
Birmingham
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Arsenal
0
4
L
26.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
1
D
17.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Fulham
1
0
W
Last matches: Wolves
24.05.26
Pre
Wolves
Burnley
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Wolves
Fulham
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pre
Wolves
Brighton
0
3
L
02.05.26
Pre
Wolves
Sunderland
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
Wolves
Tottenham
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Wolves
West Ham
0
4
L
16.03.26
Pre
Wolves
Brentford
2
2
D
06.03.26
FA
Wolves
Liverpool
1
3
L
03.03.26
Pre
Wolves
Liverpool
2
1
W
27.02.26
Pre
Wolves
Aston Villa
2
0
W
22.02.26
Pre
Wolves
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
Wolves
Arsenal
2
2
D
15.02.26
FA
Wolves
Grimsby
1
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Wolves
Nottingham Forest
0
0
D
07.02.26
Pre
Wolves
Chelsea
1
3
L
31.01.26
Pre
Wolves
Bournemouth
0
2
L
24.01.26
Pre
Wolves
Manchester City
0
2
L
18.01.26
Pre
Wolves
Newcastle
0
0
D
10.01.26
FA
Wolves
Shrewsbury
6
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Wolves
Everton
1
1
D
H2H: Leeds vs Wolves
18.04.26
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
W
20.09.25
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
1
3
W
18.03.23
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
2
4
W
09.11.22
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
1
0
L
06.08.22
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
2
1
W
18.03.22
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
2
3
W
23.10.21
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
1
1
D
19.02.21
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
1
0
L
19.10.20
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
1
L
07.03.18
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
3
L
22.11.17
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
4
1
L
17.04.17
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
1
L
22.10.16
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
0
1
W
19.04.16
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
2
1
W
17.12.15
H2H
Wolves
Leeds
2
3
W
Last matches: Leeds
17.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
W
01.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
21.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
0
0
D
08.03.26
FA
Leeds
Norwich
3
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
0
1
L
06.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Arsenal
0
4
L
17.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Fulham
1
0
W
04.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
4
1
W
06.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Liverpool
3
3
D
03.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
2
L
24.10.25
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
2
1
W
04.10.25
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
2
D
30.08.25
Pre
Leeds
Newcastle
0
0
D
18.08.25
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
0
W
H2H at home: Leeds
18.04.26
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
W
06.08.22
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
2
1
W
23.10.21
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
1
1
D
19.10.20
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
1
L
07.03.18
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
3
L
17.04.17
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
1
L
19.04.16
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
2
1
W
Last matches: Wolves
24.05.26
Pre
Wolves
Burnley
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pre
Wolves
Brighton
0
3
L
10.04.26
Pre
Wolves
West Ham
0
4
L
16.03.26
Pre
Wolves
Brentford
2
2
D
22.02.26
Pre
Wolves
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
15.02.26
FA
Wolves
Grimsby
1
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Wolves
Nottingham Forest
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
Wolves
Manchester City
0
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Wolves
Everton
1
1
D
30.12.25
Pre
Wolves
Manchester United
1
1
D
27.12.25
Pre
Wolves
Liverpool
1
2
L
13.12.25
Pre
Wolves
Arsenal
1
2
L
30.11.25
Pre
Wolves
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pre
Wolves
Chelsea
0
3
L
01.11.25
Pre
Wolves
Fulham
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pre
Wolves
Sunderland
0
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Wolves
Tottenham
1
1
D
13.09.25
Pre
Wolves
Newcastle
0
1
L
23.08.25
Pre
Wolves
Bournemouth
0
1
L
H2H away: Wolves
18.04.26
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
L
06.08.22
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
2
1
L
23.10.21
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
1
1
D
19.10.20
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
1
W
07.03.18
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
3
W
17.04.17
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
0
1
W
19.04.16
H2H
Leeds
Wolves
2
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Home
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L

Missing Players

Leeds 3 missing
-
J. Rodon
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
D. James
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
A. Stach
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
Wolves 5 missing
-
L. Chiwome
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. Gonzalez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Johnstone
Questionable Knock
OUT
-
M. Doherty
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Y. Mosquera
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT