ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
18.04.2026 14:00
Elland Road
Referee: F. Hallam
Leeds
Match Timeline
Wolves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
J. Justin · Assist: N. Okafor
Leeds
20'
N. Okafor · Assist: B. Aaronson
Leeds
🔄
38'
A. Gomes ↔ M. Mane
Wolves
🔄
46'
J. Tchatchoua ↔ Pedro Lima
Wolves
🔄
67'
N. Okafor ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🔄
67'
J. Bellegarde ↔ R. Gomes
Wolves
🟨
73'
Brenden Aaronson
Leeds
🔄
75'
L. Krejci ↔ Hwang Hee-Chan
Wolves
🔄
78'
B. Aaronson ↔ I. Gruev
Leeds
🟨
90+12'
James Justin
Leeds
🟨
90+3'
Hugo Bueno
Wolves
🔄
90+6'
G. Gudmundsson ↔ J. Rodon
Leeds
🔄
90+6'
D. Calvert-Lewin ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
90+6'
A. Tanaka ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds
90'
D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds

Leeds vs Wolves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Leeds Win 64.4%
Draw 11%
Wolves Win 24.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds1.51
Wolves1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leeds Leeds
WWDLW
48 GF / 53 GA
Wolves Wolves
WLDWL
32 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
22
BTTS Yes
16
20
Over 2.5
17
4.28
Shots on Goal
3.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leeds Leeds 36 matches
Wolves Wolves 35 matches
Leeds Statistic Wolves
10 Wins 5
14 Draws 8
12 Losses 22
48 Goals For 32
53 Goals Against 62
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
22 BTTS Yes 16
27 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 17
14 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 16
4.28 Shots On Goal 3.37
13.31 Total Shots 9.71
4.78 Corners 3.17
46.3% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Wolves seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leeds expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Wolves in 3-5-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wolves having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Leeds arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 15 with 36 points compared to Wolves in 20 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Wolves.

Leeds Analysis

Leeds sit 15 with 36 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 37:48, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Calvert-Lewin (10 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), Noah Okafor (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (4 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Wolves Analysis

Wolves sit 20 with 17 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 21 losses, together with goals at 24:58, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. S. Larsen (4 goals), Ladislav Krejčí (3 goals), R. Gomes (3 goals), with creative support from Adam Armstrong (2 assists), D. M. Wolfe (2 assists), J. S. Larsen (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Chiwome, E. Gonzalez, S. Johnstone, Y. Mosquera unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Leeds won 8 times, Wolves won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:21 from Leeds's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Leeds 3-4-2-1 / Wolves 3-5-1-1
Missing players: Leeds 3, Wolves 5
H2H summary: Leeds wins 8, draws 1, Wolves wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Home
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship