POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Poznan
Referee: B. Frankowski
Lech Poznan
Match Timeline
Arka Gdynia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
22'
Patrik Wålemark
Lech Poznan
🟨
22'
Dawid Gojny
Arka Gdynia
🔄
25'
L. Perea ↔ M. Rzuchowski
Arka Gdynia
🔄
46'
T. Ouma ↔ F. Jagiello
Lech Poznan
🔄
46'
A. Milic ↔ R. Gumny
Lech Poznan
52'
K. Hermoso
Arka Gdynia
57'
L. Palma · Assist: M. Ishak
Lech Poznan
🔄
61'
O. Kubiak ↔ N. Rusyn
Arka Gdynia
🔄
61'
V. Gutkovskis ↔ E. D. Espiau Hernandez
Arka Gdynia
🔄
64'
L. Bengtsson ↔ P. Rodriguez
Lech Poznan
🟨
65'
Dominick Zator
Arka Gdynia
🔄
82'
A. Kozubal ↔ Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
🔄
82'
L. Palma ↔ D. Hakans
Lech Poznan
🔄
85'
S. Kerk ↔ P. Szysz
Arka Gdynia
🔄
85'
D. Abramowicz ↔ D. Kocyla
Arka Gdynia
🟨
88'
Robert Gumny
Lech Poznan
🟨
90+8'
Nazariy Rusyn
Arka Gdynia
🟨
90+4'
Jędrzej Grobelny
Arka Gdynia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lech Poznan Win 83.6%
Draw 0%
Arka Gdynia Win 16.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lech Poznan1.83
Arka Gdynia1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
WWDLW
87 GF / 64 GA
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
WLDWL
31 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
32
BTTS Yes
15
31
Over 2.5
19
5.49
Shots on Goal
3.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 47 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 30 matches
Lech Poznan Statistic Arka Gdynia
24 Wins 9
12 Draws 7
11 Losses 14
87 Goals For 31
64 Goals Against 54
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
32 BTTS Yes 15
37 Over 1.5 22
31 Over 2.5 19
20 Over 3.5 12
14 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 12
5.49 Shots On Goal 3.4
15.4 Total Shots 10.43
4.96 Corners 4.27
51.7% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lech Poznan's more proactive style and Arka Gdynia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Arka Gdynia. Arka Gdynia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Lech Poznan arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 55 points compared to Arka Gdynia in 17 on 34, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lech Poznan expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Arka Gdynia in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arka Gdynia having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lech Poznan Analysis

Lech Poznan approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 55 points after 31 outings. The return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 56:41, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Ishak (15 goals), Luis Palma (7 goals), Ali Gholizadeh (6 goals), with creative support from Luis Palma (5 assists), J. Pereira (5 assists), Ali Gholizadeh (4 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Arka Gdynia Analysis

With 34 points from 30 games and a place of 17, Arka Gdynia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats with a 31:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. D. Espiau Hernandez (5 goals), N. Rusyn (4 goals), S. Kerk (4 goals), with creative support from S. Kerk (7 assists), Marc Navarro (4 assists), Kike Hermoso (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Lech Poznan won 2 times, Arka Gdynia won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:8 from Lech Poznan's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.63 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lech Poznan 4-4-2 / Arka Gdynia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lech Poznan wins 2, draws 3, Arka Gdynia wins 3
Stats
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
15 Corner Kicks 5
7 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 0
81% Ball Possession 19%
26 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Goal 2
12 Shots off Goal 4
7 Blocked Shots 1
19 Shots insidebox 5
7 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
661 Total passes 159
574 Passes accurate 91
1.84 expected_goals 0.72
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lech Poznan
Formation
Arka Gdynia
B. Mrozek
B. Mrozek
J. Pereira
J. Pereira
W. Monka
W. Monka
A. Milic
A. Milic
M. Gurgul
M. Gurgul
T. Ouma
T. Ouma
A. Kozubal
A. Kozubal
P. Walemark
P. Walemark
L. Palma
L. Palma
L. Bengtsson
L. Bengtsson
M. Ishak
🎯
M. Ishak
J. Grobelny
J. Grobelny
K. Hermoso
K. Hermoso
M. Marcjanik
M. Marcjanik
D. Gojny
D. Gojny
D. Zator
D. Zator
L. Perea
L. Perea
K. Jakubczyk
K. Jakubczyk
D. Abramowicz
D. Abramowicz
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak
V. Gutkovskis
V. Gutkovskis
S. Kerk
S. Kerk
Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
41
B. Mrozek
G
2
J. Pereira
D
27
W. Monka
D
16
A. Milic
↓ 46'
D
15
M. Gurgul
D
6
T. Ouma
↓ 46'
M
43
A. Kozubal
↓ 82'
M
10
P. Walemark
M
77
L. Palma
⚽ 57' ↓ 82'
M
14
L. Bengtsson
↓ 64'
M
9
M. Ishak
🎯 57'
F
Substitutes
1
P. Andreev
G
33
M. Pruchniewski
G
22
R. Murawski
M
7
Y. Agnero
↑ 82'
F
24
F. Jagiello
↑ 46'
M
20
R. Gumny
↑ 46' 🟨 88'
D
99
P. Rodriguez
↑ 64'
F
11
D. Hakans
↑ 82'
M
72
M. Skrzypczak
D
88
T. Ismaheel
M
Arka Gdynia 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
J. Grobelny
🟨 90+4'
G
23
K. Hermoso
⚽ 52'
D
29
M. Marcjanik
D
94
D. Gojny
🟨 22'
D
4
D. Zator
🟨 65'
M
6
L. Perea
↓ 25'
M
35
K. Jakubczyk
M
33
D. Abramowicz
↓ 85'
M
7
O. Kubiak
↓ 61'
F
19
V. Gutkovskis
↓ 61'
F
37
S. Kerk
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
27
J. Oliveira
M
2
M. Navarro
D
22
M. Rzuchowski
↑ 25'
M
31
N. Rusyn
↑ 61' 🟨 90+8'
F
21
P. Szysz
↑ 85'
M
3
S. Szota
D
99
E. D. Espiau Hernandez
↑ 61'
F
11
D. Kocyla
↑ 85'
M
8
A. Sidibe
M
Last matches: Lech Poznan
23.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Wisla Plock
2
2
D
16.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Radomiak Radom
3
1
W
02.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Motor Lublin
1
0
W
26.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
4
0
W
18.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
2
1
W
12.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
GKS Katowice
3
3
D
04.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
0
0
D
22.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Nieciecza
4
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
1
W
15.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
1
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
3
L
07.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Widzew Łódź
1
2
L
01.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Raków Częstochowa
4
3
W
26.02.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
KuPS
1
0
W
22.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Korona Kielce
2
1
W
19.02.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
KuPS
2
0
W
15.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Piast Gliwice
3
0
W
07.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
1
0
W
03.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Piast Gliwice
0
1
L
31.01.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Lechia Gdansk
1
3
L
Last matches: Arka Gdynia
23.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa
0
3
L
18.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
2
3
L
13.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Gornik Zabrze
0
0
D
27.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Piast Gliwice
1
4
L
19.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
3
L
12.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Cracovia Krakow
2
2
D
07.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Zaglebie Lubin
3
1
W
22.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Korona Kielce
0
3
L
15.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Widzew Łódź
0
0
D
09.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Wisla Plock
3
0
W
05.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Radomiak Radom
1
3
L
27.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
2
2
D
22.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
2
1
W
15.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
L
07.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Legia Warszawa
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Radnicki NIS
2
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
4
1
W
15.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Gangwon FC
4
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Arka Gdynia
Csikszereda
1
1
D
06.12.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Motor Lublin
1
0
W
H2H: Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
08.05.26
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
1
D
09.11.25
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
3
1
L
07.12.23
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
0
1
W
09.07.21
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
0
2
L
19.12.19
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
1
D
17.08.19
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
0
0
D
03.03.19
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
0
W
21.09.18
H2H
Arka Gdynia
Lech Poznan
1
0
L
Last matches: Lech Poznan
23.05.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Wisla Plock
2
2
D
26.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
4
0
W
12.04.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
GKS Katowice
3
3
D
22.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Nieciecza
4
1
W
12.03.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
3
L
01.03.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Raków Częstochowa
4
3
W
26.02.26
UEF
Lech Poznan
KuPS
1
0
W
15.02.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Piast Gliwice
3
0
W
31.01.26
Eks
Lech Poznan
Lechia Gdansk
1
3
L
24.01.26
Fri
Lech Poznan
FC Noah
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Lech Poznan
Olmaliq
2
1
W
17.01.26
Fri
Lech Poznan
Žilina
2
1
W
11.12.25
UEF
Lech Poznan
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
27.11.25
UEF
Lech Poznan
Lausanne
2
0
W
23.11.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Radomiak Radom
4
1
W
02.11.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Motor Lublin
2
2
D
19.10.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
2
2
D
02.10.25
UEF
Lech Poznan
Rapid Vienna
4
1
W
28.09.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
2
2
D
12.09.25
Eks
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
1
2
L
H2H at home: Lech Poznan
08.05.26
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
1
D
09.07.21
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
0
2
L
19.12.19
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
1
D
03.03.19
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
0
W
Last matches: Arka Gdynia
23.05.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Raków Częstochowa
0
3
L
27.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Piast Gliwice
1
4
L
12.04.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Cracovia Krakow
2
2
D
22.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Korona Kielce
0
3
L
09.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Wisla Plock
3
0
W
05.03.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Radomiak Radom
1
3
L
15.02.26
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Pogon Szczecin
0
1
L
21.11.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
0
2
L
02.11.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Gornik Zabrze
1
5
L
18.10.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Jagiellonia
0
4
L
29.09.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Zaglebie Lubin
0
4
L
14.09.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Widzew Łódź
0
2
L
24.08.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
0
1
L
16.08.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
GKS Katowice
1
4
L
03.08.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Legia Warszawa
0
0
D
20.07.25
Eks
Arka Gdynia
Motor Lublin
0
1
L
H2H away: Arka Gdynia
08.05.26
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
1
D
09.07.21
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
0
2
W
19.12.19
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
1
D
03.03.19
H2H
Lech Poznan
Arka Gdynia
1
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W