ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Via del Mare
Referee: D. Doveri
Lecce
Match Timeline
Genoa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
L. Banda · Assist: S. Pierotti
Lecce
🟨
45'
Ylber Ramadani
Lecce
🔄
46'
O. Ngom ↔ O. Gandelman
Lecce
🔄
60'
A. Martin ↔ B. Norton-Cuffy
Genoa
🔄
60'
S. Sabelli ↔ W. L. Ouedraogo
Genoa
🔄
65'
L. Banda ↔ K. Ndri
Lecce
🔄
69'
Amorim ↔ J. Grossi
Genoa
🟨
76'
Tiago Gabriel
Lecce
🔄
80'
S. Pierotti ↔ G. Jean
Lecce
🔄
80'
W. Cheddira ↔ N. Stulic
Lecce
🔄
83'
A. Marcandalli ↔ G. Lafont
Genoa
🔄
83'
P. Masini ↔ F. Carbone
Genoa
🔄
89'
Y. Ramadani ↔ K. Gaspar
Lecce

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lecce Win 22.5%
Draw 6.3%
Genoa Win 71.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lecce1
Genoa1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lecce Lecce
WWDLW
29 GF / 53 GA
Genoa Genoa
WLDWL
47 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
0.74
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
14
BTTS Yes
21
15
Over 2.5
23
2.49
Shots on Goal
3.85

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lecce Lecce 39 matches
Genoa Genoa 40 matches
Lecce Statistic Genoa
10 Wins 12
8 Draws 11
21 Losses 17
29 Goals For 47
53 Goals Against 55
0.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
14 BTTS Yes 21
25 Over 1.5 32
15 Over 2.5 23
5 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 10
20 Failed To Score 15
2.49 Shots On Goal 3.85
9.56 Total Shots 11.58
4.28 Corners 3.7
41.2% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Genoa. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lecce expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Genoa in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Genoa having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lecce Analysis

With 35 points from 37 games and a place of 17, Lecce still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 27:50 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lameck Banda (4 goals), Nikola Štulić (4 goals), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals), with creative support from Lameck Banda (4 assists), Antonino Gallo (4 assists), M. Berisha (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Marchwiński unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Genoa Analysis

With 41 points from 37 games and a place of 14, Genoa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 16 defeats with a 41:50 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals), Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals), Leo Østigård (5 goals), with creative support from Aarón Martín (5 assists), Ruslan Malinovskyi (3 assists), Alessandro Marcandalli (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lecce won 2 times, Genoa won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:24 from Lecce's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Lecce 4-2-3-1 / Genoa 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Lecce 2, Genoa 9
H2H summary: Lecce wins 2, draws 5, Genoa wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16
Genoa Away
38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17
Lecce Home
38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B