ECUADOR LIGA PRO
18.07.2026 21:30
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Referee: Bryan Loayza, Ecuador
LDU de Quito
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Alejandro Tobar
LDU de Quito
🔄
17'
A. Alvarado ↔ S. Gonzalez Baquero
LDU de Quito
45'
M. Luque
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
C. Luna Tobar ↔ J. W. Cuero Mercado
LDU de Quito
🔄
46'
Y. Quinonez ↔ Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🟨
62'
Cristhian Solano
Leones del Norte
🔄
62'
E. Pepinos ↔ M. Caramuto
Leones del Norte
🔄
62'
M. Luque ↔ T. Coppo
Leones del Norte
🔄
63'
A. Gomez ↔ E. Castillo
LDU de Quito
🔄
64'
R. Redes ↔ J. Corozo
LDU de Quito
🔄
70'
M. De La Cruz ↔ S. Portocarrero
Leones del Norte
🔄
70'
C. Solano ↔ P. Madero
Leones del Norte
🟨
75'
Leonel Quiñónez
LDU de Quito
🟨
81'
Sebastián González
LDU de Quito
🔄
81'
A. Aguas ↔ R. Borja
Leones del Norte
🟨
90+4'
Jordan Morán
Leones del Norte

LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.3%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
LDU de Quito Win 67.3%
Draw 10.4%
Leones del Norte Win 22.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
LDU de Quito1.1
Leones del Norte0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WWDLW
32 GF / 23 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
20 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.05
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
9
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
7
3.36
Shots on Goal
3.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 28 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 19 matches
LDU de Quito Statistic Leones del Norte
13 Wins 6
6 Draws 6
9 Losses 7
32 Goals For 20
23 Goals Against 20
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
9 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 2
11 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 6
3.36 Shots On Goal 3.42
13.92 Total Shots 11.26
5.12 Corners 3.74
49.6% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights LDU de Quito's more proactive style and Leones del Norte's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with LDU de Quito expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Leones del Norte in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Leones del Norte. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 28 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 19:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Deyverson (4 goals), Rodney Redes (2 goals), Janner Corozo (2 goals), with creative support from Deyverson (1 assists), Rodney Redes (1 assists), Jesús Pretell (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 9 with 23 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 19:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), Segundo Portocarrero (1 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), D. Pazmiño (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, LDU de Quito won 2 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:1 from LDU de Quito's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: LDU de Quito 5-3-2 / Leones del Norte 3-4-3
H2H summary: LDU de Quito wins 2, draws 0, Leones del Norte wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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