ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Referee: Bryan Loayza, Ecuador
LDU de Quito
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Alejandro Tobar
LDU de Quito
🔄
17'
A. Alvarado ↔ S. Gonzalez Baquero
LDU de Quito
45'
M. Luque
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
C. Luna Tobar ↔ J. W. Cuero Mercado
LDU de Quito
🔄
46'
Y. Quinonez ↔ Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🟨
62'
Cristhian Solano
Leones del Norte
🔄
62'
E. Pepinos ↔ M. Caramuto
Leones del Norte
🔄
62'
M. Luque ↔ T. Coppo
Leones del Norte
🔄
63'
A. Gomez ↔ E. Castillo
LDU de Quito
🔄
64'
R. Redes ↔ J. Corozo
LDU de Quito
🔄
70'
M. De La Cruz ↔ S. Portocarrero
Leones del Norte
🔄
70'
C. Solano ↔ P. Madero
Leones del Norte
🟨
75'
Leonel Quiñónez
LDU de Quito
🟨
81'
Sebastián González
LDU de Quito
🔄
81'
A. Aguas ↔ R. Borja
Leones del Norte
🟨
90+4'
Jordan Morán
Leones del Norte

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.3%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
LDU de Quito Win 67.3%
Draw 10.4%
Leones del Norte Win 22.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
LDU de Quito1.1
Leones del Norte0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WWDLW
32 GF / 23 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
20 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.05
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
9
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
7
3.36
Shots on Goal
3.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 28 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 19 matches
LDU de Quito Statistic Leones del Norte
13 Wins 6
6 Draws 6
9 Losses 7
32 Goals For 20
23 Goals Against 20
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
9 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 2
11 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 6
3.36 Shots On Goal 3.42
13.92 Total Shots 11.26
5.12 Corners 3.74
49.6% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights LDU de Quito's more proactive style and Leones del Norte's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with LDU de Quito expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Leones del Norte in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Leones del Norte. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 28 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 19:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Deyverson (4 goals), Rodney Redes (2 goals), Janner Corozo (2 goals), with creative support from Deyverson (1 assists), Rodney Redes (1 assists), Jesús Pretell (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 9 with 23 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 19:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), Segundo Portocarrero (1 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Segundo Portocarrero (1 assists), D. Pazmiño (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, LDU de Quito won 2 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:1 from LDU de Quito's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: LDU de Quito 5-3-2 / Leones del Norte 3-4-3
H2H summary: LDU de Quito wins 2, draws 0, Leones del Norte wins 1
Stats
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
5
9 Corner Kicks 4
9 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 3
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Goal 6
9 Shots off Goal 8
1 Blocked Shots 5
9 Shots insidebox 11
8 Shots outsidebox 8
5 Goalkeeper Saves 7
459 Total passes 324
391 Passes accurate 255
1.21 expected_goals 1.74
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

LDU de Quito
Formation
Leones del Norte
G. Valle
G. Valle
G. F. Allala Menendez
G. F. Allala Menendez
R. Ade
R. Ade
L. Quinonez
L. Quinonez
Y. Quinonez
Y. Quinonez
A. Gomez
A. Gomez
C. Luna Tobar
C. Luna Tobar
J. Carabali
J. Carabali
R. Redes
R. Redes
M. Estrada
M. Estrada
A. Alvarado
A. Alvarado
L. Nazareno
L. Nazareno
A. Aguas
A. Aguas
N. Monserrat
N. Monserrat
J. Moran
J. Moran
M. Luque
M. Luque
C. Velez
C. Velez
E. Griffa
E. Griffa
M. De La Cruz
M. De La Cruz
E. Pepinos
E. Pepinos
J. Anangono
J. Anangono
C. Solano
C. Solano
LDU de Quito 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
G. Valle
G
30
G. F. Allala Menendez
D
4
R. Ade
D
33
L. Quinonez
🟨 75'
D
23
Y. Quinonez
↓ 46'
M
32
A. Gomez
↓ 63'
99
C. Luna Tobar
↓ 46' 🟨 3'
M
67
J. Carabali
M
7
R. Redes
↓ 64'
F
11
M. Estrada
F
10
A. Alvarado
↓ 17'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Villa
G
22
A. Dominguez
G
44
L. Segovia
D
13
J. Corozo
↑ 64'
F
28
J. W. Cuero Mercado
↑ 46'
D
21
E. Castillo
↑ 63'
M
27
R. Mina
16
Deyverson
↑ 46'
F
3
R. Mina
D
5
S. Gonzalez Baquero
↑ 17' 🟨 81'
M
25
P. Ortiz
24
J. Calle
M
Leones del Norte 3-4-3
Starting XI
45
L. Nazareno
G
32
A. Aguas
↓ 81'
23
N. Monserrat
D
2
J. Moran
7
M. Luque
⚽ 45' ↓ 62'
M
8
C. Velez
M
6
E. Griffa
M
16
M. De La Cruz
↓ 70'
M
19
E. Pepinos
↓ 62'
F
40
J. Anangono
99
C. Solano
↓ 70' 🟨 62'
F
Substitutes
22
J. Arroyo
G
34
S. Portocarrero
↑ 70'
D
70
D. Pazmino
M
50
M. Caicedo
D
11
M. Caramuto
↑ 62'
M
55
R. Borja
↑ 81'
M
3
F. Vargas
D
27
Caicedo Nestor
F
5
T. Coppo
↑ 62'
M
29
P. Madero
↑ 70'
M
13
J. Cabeza
M
14
A. Folleco
D
Last matches: LDU de Quito
04.08.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Delfin SC
2
1
W
27.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Manta FC
1
1
D
15.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
12.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Libertad
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Macara
0
1
L
01.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Orense SC
3
0
W
18.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
26.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
3
2
W
24.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
21.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
2
0
W
15.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
12.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
07.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
0
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
28.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Emelec
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Aucas
0
0
D
19.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
Last matches: Leones del Norte
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
H2H: LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte
30.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
6
0
W
18.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
18.03.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
W
Last matches: LDU de Quito
04.08.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Delfin SC
2
1
W
12.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Libertad
0
0
D
01.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Orense SC
3
0
W
18.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
26.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
3
2
W
21.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
2
0
W
15.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Aucas
0
0
D
15.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
2
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Barcelona SC
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Manta FC
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Macara
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
4
2
W
H2H at home: LDU de Quito
30.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
6
0
W
18.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
Last matches: Leones del Norte
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
H2H away: Leones del Norte
30.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
6
0
L
18.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
0
1
W

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 1 3 56:22 34 58
W W W W W
2 23 11 6 6 38:19 19 39
W D W W W
3 23 11 5 7 30:23 7 38
W W W L W
4 23 11 5 7 26:25 1 38
W L L W L
5 23 9 8 6 24:18 6 35
D L L W D
6 23 10 5 8 23:18 5 35
W W D L L
7 23 8 8 7 24:22 2 32
D W D W D
8 23 9 4 10 21:28 -7 31
L W L L D
9 23 8 6 9 24:26 -2 30
W W W L W
10 23 7 7 9 29:34 -5 28
W L D W L
11 23 7 7 9 20:25 -5 28
L D D W D
12 23 7 5 11 27:35 -8 26
L L W L L
13 23 8 2 13 20:29 -9 26
L W L L L
14 23 7 7 9 19:28 -9 25
L L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 14:23 -9 23
L L L W W
16 23 3 5 15 9:29 -20 14
L L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs