AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Raiffeisen Arena
Referee: W. Altmann
Lask Linz
Match Timeline
Sturm Graz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
8'
Ryan Fosso
Sturm Graz
10'
O. Kiteishvili
Sturm Graz
🟨
44'
Jacob Hödl
Sturm Graz
🔄
49'
J. Mitchell ↔ N. Geyrhofer
Sturm Graz
🟨
51'
Albert Vallci
Sturm Graz
🟨
59'
Daniil Khudyakov
Sturm Graz
🔄
65'
I. Coulibaly ↔ G. Bello
Lask Linz
68'
S. Kalajdzic · Assist: G. Bello
Lask Linz
🔄
70'
M. Malone ↔ G. Mamageishvili
Sturm Graz
🔄
70'
J. Hodl ↔ A. Malic
Sturm Graz
🔄
80'
J. Gazibegovic ↔ E. Karic
Sturm Graz
🔄
86'
M. Usor ↔ C. Lang
Lask Linz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Lask Linz Win 45.6%
Draw 8%
Sturm Graz Win 46.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lask Linz1.54
Sturm Graz1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lask Linz Lask Linz
WWDLW
54 GF / 40 GA
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
WLDWL
56 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
16
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
20
4.85
Shots on Goal
4.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lask Linz Lask Linz 31 matches
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 40 matches
Lask Linz Statistic Sturm Graz
18 Wins 19
5 Draws 6
8 Losses 15
54 Goals For 56
40 Goals Against 50
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
16 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 30
18 Over 2.5 20
13 Over 3.5 11
11 Clean Sheets 15
5 Failed To Score 8
4.85 Shots On Goal 4.39
15.58 Total Shots 14
5.58 Corners 4.61
50.5% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Sturm Graz. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lask Linz expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Sturm Graz in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sturm Graz having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Lask Linz Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 37 points from 22 games, Lask Linz bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 32:30, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Usor (10 goals), Samuel Adeniran (7 goals), Kasper Jørgensen (6 goals), with creative support from Samuel Adeniran (5 assists), M. Usor (4 assists), Kasper Jørgensen (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Sturm Graz Analysis

Sturm Graz approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 38 points after 22 outings. With 12 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 33:26, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by O. Kiteishvili (12 goals), S. Jatta (4 goals), B. Beganovic (3 goals), with creative support from T. Horvat (5 assists), O. Kiteishvili (3 assists), W. Boving (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lask Linz won 4 times, Sturm Graz won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:22 from Lask Linz's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Lask Linz 3-4-1-2 / Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Lask Linz wins 4, draws 4, Sturm Graz wins 7
Stats
Lask Linz Lask Linz
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
19
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
7 Corner Kicks 2
7 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 2
63% Ball Possession 37%
29 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Goal 2
19 Shots off Goal 1
5 Blocked Shots 1
21 Shots insidebox 3
8 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
434 Total passes 265
358 Passes accurate 165
3.53 expected_goals 1.12
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lask Linz
Formation
Sturm Graz
L. Jungwirth
L. Jungwirth
M. Cisse
M. Cisse
Alemao
Alemao
A. Andrade
A. Andrade
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
I. Coulibaly
I. Coulibaly
S. Horvath
S. Horvath
M. Bogarde
M. Bogarde
S. Kalajdzic
S. Kalajdzic
M. Usor
M. Usor
S. Adeniran
S. Adeniran
D. Khudyakov
D. Khudyakov
A. Vallci
A. Vallci
J. Mitchell
J. Mitchell
P. Koller
P. Koller
J. Hodl
J. Hodl
J. Gorenc Stankovic
J. Gorenc Stankovic
R. Fosso
R. Fosso
J. Gazibegovic
J. Gazibegovic
O. Kiteishvili
O. Kiteishvili
M. Malone
M. Malone
S. Jatta
S. Jatta
Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
L. Jungwirth
G
48
M. Cisse
D
43
Alemao
D
16
A. Andrade
D
20
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
M
4
I. Coulibaly
↓ 65'
M
30
S. Horvath
M
6
M. Bogarde
M
10
S. Kalajdzic
⚽ 68'
F
8
M. Usor
↓ 86'
F
7
S. Adeniran
F
Substitutes
33
T. Schutzenauer
G
29
F. Flecker
F
11
M. Entrup
F
2
G. Bello
🎯 68' ↑ 65'
D
27
C. Lang
↑ 86'
F
3
X. Mbuyamba
D
44
L. Kacavenda
M
13
A. Adeshina
52
K. Cheikne
M
Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
53
D. Khudyakov
🟨 59'
G
5
A. Vallci
🟨 51'
D
2
J. Mitchell
↓ 49'
D
30
P. Koller
D
43
J. Hodl
↓ 70' 🟨 44'
M
4
J. Gorenc Stankovic
M
80
R. Fosso
M
22
J. Gazibegovic
↓ 80'
M
10
O. Kiteishvili
⚽ 10'
F
77
M. Malone
↓ 70'
F
20
S. Jatta
F
Substitutes
40
M. Bignetti
G
17
E. Karic
↑ 80'
D
15
G. Mamageishvili
↑ 70'
M
39
L. Weinhandl
M
25
S. Hierlander
M
35
N. Geyrhofer
↑ 49'
D
9
R. Wilson
11
A. Kayombo
F
23
A. Malic
↑ 70'
D
Last matches: Lask Linz
17.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
3
0
W
10.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
2
1
W
04.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
3
1
W
01.05.26
Cup
Lask Linz
SCR Altach
4
2
W
26.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
5
1
W
22.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
10.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
3
2
W
05.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
4
1
W
22.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
2
4
L
18.03.26
Cup
Lask Linz
Ried
2
1
W
13.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
08.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Wolfsberger AC
3
1
W
01.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
2
2
D
22.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
5
L
14.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Ried
1
1
D
07.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
WSG Wattens
1
0
W
30.01.26
Cup
Lask Linz
FC BW Linz
3
2
W
23.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
SKU Amstetten
1
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
SKN ST. Polten
3
0
W
15.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
Jagiellonia
4
1
W
Last matches: Sturm Graz
17.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
10.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
4
2
W
03.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
26.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
1
1
D
22.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
12.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
05.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
First Vienna
1
1
D
20.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
15.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
5
2
W
08.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
2
0
W
01.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
2
2
D
22.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
FC BW Linz
1
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
0
1
L
08.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Ried
1
0
W
01.02.26
Cup
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
1
3
L
29.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Brann
1
0
W
22.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Feyenoord
0
3
L
14.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
FC Copenhagen
4
4
D
08.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
Club Brugge KV
2
2
D
H2H: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz
22.04.26
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
19.04.26
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
23.11.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
3
W
01.08.25
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
0
2
L
16.03.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
4
2
L
27.10.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
2
L
12.05.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
2
D
07.04.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
L
05.11.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
3
1
W
05.08.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
L
03.06.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
L
09.04.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
1
W
06.04.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
L
13.11.22
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
20.08.22
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
0
1
W
Last matches: Lask Linz
10.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
2
1
W
04.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
3
1
W
01.05.26
Cup
Lask Linz
SCR Altach
4
2
W
05.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
4
1
W
13.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
08.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Wolfsberger AC
3
1
W
22.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
5
L
07.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
WSG Wattens
1
0
W
30.01.26
Cup
Lask Linz
FC BW Linz
3
2
W
23.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
SKU Amstetten
1
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
SKN ST. Polten
3
0
W
15.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
Jagiellonia
4
1
W
10.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
BSC Young Boys
3
0
W
30.11.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
3
0
W
09.11.25
Bun
Lask Linz
SCR Altach
1
0
W
25.10.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Grazer AK
1
0
W
05.10.25
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
3
3
D
21.09.25
Bun
Lask Linz
FC BW Linz
2
0
W
30.08.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Ried
1
3
L
17.08.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
2
1
W
H2H at home: Lask Linz
19.04.26
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
01.08.25
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
0
2
L
27.10.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
2
L
12.05.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
2
D
05.11.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
3
1
W
09.04.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
1
W
13.11.22
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
Last matches: Sturm Graz
10.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
4
2
W
03.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
05.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
15.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
5
2
W
01.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
2
2
D
14.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
0
1
L
01.02.26
Cup
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
1
3
L
22.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Feyenoord
0
3
L
08.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
Club Brugge KV
2
2
D
14.12.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
30.11.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
1
0
W
27.11.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
Panathinaikos
1
2
L
02.11.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
2
L
29.10.25
Cup
Sturm Graz
Admira Wacker
1
1
D
23.10.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
Celtic
1
2
L
19.10.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
FC BW Linz
4
3
W
05.10.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
2
0
W
24.09.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
FC Midtjylland
0
2
L
20.09.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
2
0
W
17.09.25
Cup
Sturm Graz
Röthis
2
0
W
H2H away: Sturm Graz
19.04.26
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
01.08.25
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
0
2
W
27.10.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
2
W
12.05.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
2
D
05.11.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
3
1
L
09.04.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
1
L
13.11.22
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D

Standings

Bundesliga: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 2 8 33:26 7 38
?
2 22 10 7 5 42:26 16 37
?
3 22 11 4 7 32:30 2 37
?
4 22 11 3 8 34:30 4 36
?
5 22 9 6 7 26:25 1 33
?
6 22 8 9 5 29:24 5 33
?
7 22 8 7 7 31:30 1 31
?
8 22 7 8 7 22:23 -1 29
?
9 22 8 4 10 26:30 -4 28
?
10 22 7 5 10 31:32 -1 26
?
11 22 4 8 10 22:36 -14 20
?
12 22 4 3 15 20:36 -16 15
?
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)