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12.10.2026 19:00
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus
Referee: Sebastian Nicolas Martinez
Lanus
Live Timeline
Velez Sarsfield
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Lucas Robertone
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
19'
Thiago Aguirre
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
34'
Rodrigo Aliendro
Velez Sarsfield

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 47.1%
Odds 3.90
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
47.1%
3.90 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.05 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.67 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.3%
1.32 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Lanus Win 36%
Draw 16.9%
Velez Sarsfield Win 47.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lanus0.97
Velez Sarsfield1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lanus Lanus
WWDLW
39 GF / 36 GA
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WLDWL
41 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
12
BTTS Yes
17
14
Over 2.5
9
4.26
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lanus Lanus 36 matches
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 31 matches
Lanus Statistic Velez Sarsfield
15 Wins 14
8 Draws 14
13 Losses 3
39 Goals For 41
36 Goals Against 25
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
12 BTTS Yes 17
20 Over 1.5 19
14 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 7
15 Clean Sheets 12
13 Failed To Score 5
4.26 Shots On Goal 4.18
12.68 Total Shots 11.89
4.74 Corners 4.25
51.7% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Velez Sarsfield. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Lanus Analysis

Lanus sit 6 with 24 points after 16 league matches. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 18:15 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Y. Valois (4 goals), F. Peña (3 goals), A. Wlk (3 goals), with creative support from E. Salvio (3 assists), Y. Valois (1 assists), C. Izquierdoz (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Velez Sarsfield arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 28 points after 16 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 18:12 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Florián Monzón (3 goals), M. Lanzini (2 goals), D. Valdés (1 goals), with creative support from D. Valdés (2 assists), Elías Gómez (2 assists), M. Pellegrini (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lanus won 5 times, Velez Sarsfield won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:21 from Lanus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.1%)
Predicted formations: Lanus 4-2-3-1 / Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lanus wins 5, draws 4, Velez Sarsfield wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
D W L W L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D W W W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L L W L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
W L W D W
6
Lanus Home
16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D W W W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W L L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W W D W L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D L D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D D L L D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W D D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D L D
Knockout Phase