17.08.2026 20:00
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus
Referee: Sebastian Nicolas Martinez
Lanus
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
L. Millan · Assist: S. Montiel
Independiente
47'
L. Millan
Independiente
50'
A. Wlk · Assist: R. Carrera
Lanus
🔄
61'
L. Millan ↔ M. Meza
Independiente
🔄
61'
M. Perez Curci ↔ D. Martinez
Independiente
🔄
64'
E. Salvio ↔ M. Sepulveda
Lanus
🔄
64'
A. Wlk ↔ Y. Valois
Lanus
🟨
69'
Ramiro Carrera
Lanus
🔄
77'
F. Pena Biafore ↔ L. Besozzi
Lanus
🔄
77'
J. Palais ↔ M. Gutierrez
Independiente
🔄
77'
S. Montiel ↔ M. Abaldo
Independiente
🔄
85'
T. Guidara ↔ N. Morgantini
Lanus
🔄
85'
D. Aquino ↔ B. Acosta
Lanus
🟨
87'
Gabriel Ávalos
Independiente
🟨
87'
Iván Marcone
Independiente
🟨
89'
Benjamin Acosta
Lanus
🟨
90+5'
Rodrigo Rey
Independiente
🔄
90+1'
G. Avalos ↔ F. Cruz
Independiente
90'
M. Gutierrez · Assist: M. Abaldo
Independiente

Lanus vs Independiente Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
59.8%
-
BTTS No
56%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lanus Win 40.2%
Draw 18.9%
Independiente Win 40.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lanus1.16
Independiente1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lanus Lanus
WWDLW
31 GF / 30 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
34 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
9
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
9
4.11
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lanus Lanus 29 matches
Independiente Independiente 24 matches
Lanus Statistic Independiente
12 Wins 10
6 Draws 6
11 Losses 8
31 Goals For 34
30 Goals Against 31
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
9 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 7
11 Failed To Score 4
4.11 Shots On Goal 4
12.63 Total Shots 12.86
4.67 Corners 5.86
52.4% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Lanus Analysis

Lanus approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 24 points from 16 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats with a 18:15 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Yoshan Valois (2 goals), Felipe Peña Biafore (1 goals), with creative support from Lucas Besozzi (1 assists), Gonzalo Perez (1 assists), Dylan Aquino (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Independiente Analysis

With 24 points from 16 games and a place of 5, Independiente still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 24:20 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals), Matías Abaldo (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lanus won 7 times, Independiente won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from Lanus's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.1%)
Predicted formations: Lanus 4-2-3-1 / Independiente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lanus wins 7, draws 5, Independiente wins 3

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6
Lanus Home
16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase