Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away or Draw |
59.8%
|
1.57 | |
| BTTS | No |
56%
|
1.57 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.8%
|
1.43 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.36 | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
7.00 | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
7.50 |
Lanus
Independiente
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Lanus
29 matches
Independiente
24 matches
| Lanus | Statistic | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 10 |
| 6 | Draws | 6 |
| 11 | Losses | 8 |
| 31 | Goals For | 34 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 31 |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.42 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
| 9 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 16 | Over 1.5 | 19 |
| 11 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 12 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 11 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 4.11 | Shots On Goal | 4 |
| 12.63 | Total Shots | 12.86 |
| 4.67 | Corners | 5.86 |
| 52.4% | Ball Possession | 52.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.
Lanus approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 24 points from 16 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats with a 18:15 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Yoshan Valois (2 goals), Felipe Peña Biafore (1 goals), with creative support from Lucas Besozzi (1 assists), Gonzalo Perez (1 assists), Dylan Aquino (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.
With 24 points from 16 games and a place of 5, Independiente still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 24:20 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals), Matías Abaldo (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lanus won 7 times, Independiente won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from Lanus's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Lanus
6
4
12
6
3
4
Lineups
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
Lanus
San Lorenzo
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
Lanus
Mirassol
Lanus
LDU de Quito
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
Lanus
Always Ready
Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
Lanus
LDU de Quito
Lanus
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Lanus
Gimnasia M.
Lanus
Always Ready
Lanus
Banfield
Lanus
Mirassol
Lanus
Platense
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
Independiente
Platense
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Rosario Central
Independiente
San Lorenzo
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
Independiente
Boca Juniors
Independiente
Racing Club
Independiente
Atenas
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
Lanus
San Lorenzo
Lanus
Mirassol
Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
Lanus
LDU de Quito
Lanus
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Lanus
Always Ready
Lanus
Banfield
Lanus
Platense
Lanus
Newells Old Boys
Lanus
Boca Juniors
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
Sarmiento de La Banda
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Rosario Central
Independiente
San Lorenzo
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
Boca Juniors
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
Platense
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | 12 | 31 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | 13 | 30 |
D
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 3 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | 6 | 28 |
D
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 26 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 5 |
Independiente
Away
|
16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | 4 | 24 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
| 6 |
Lanus
Home
|
16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 24 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
| 7 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | 4 | 21 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 |
W
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 |
W
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 15 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 |
D
L
W
L
L
|