ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus
Referee: S. Martinez
Lanus
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
L. Millan · Assist: S. Montiel
Independiente
47'
L. Millan
Independiente
50'
A. Wlk · Assist: R. Carrera
Lanus
🔄
61'
L. Millan ↔ M. Meza
Independiente
🔄
61'
M. Perez Curci ↔ D. Martinez
Independiente
🔄
64'
E. Salvio ↔ M. Sepulveda
Lanus
🔄
64'
A. Wlk ↔ Y. Valois
Lanus
🟨
69'
Ramiro Carrera
Lanus
🔄
77'
F. Pena Biafore ↔ L. Besozzi
Lanus
🔄
77'
J. Palais ↔ M. Gutierrez
Independiente
🔄
77'
S. Montiel ↔ M. Abaldo
Independiente
🔄
85'
T. Guidara ↔ N. Morgantini
Lanus
🔄
85'
D. Aquino ↔ B. Acosta
Lanus
🟨
87'
Gabriel Ávalos
Independiente
🟨
87'
Iván Marcone
Independiente
🟨
89'
Benjamin Acosta
Lanus
🟨
90+5'
Rodrigo Rey
Independiente
🔄
90+1'
G. Avalos ↔ F. Cruz
Independiente
90'
M. Gutierrez · Assist: M. Abaldo
Independiente

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 59.8%
Odds 1.57
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.43
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
59.8%
1.57
BTTS No
56%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.43
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.36
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 0-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Lanus Win 40.2%
Draw 18.9%
Independiente Win 40.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lanus1.16
Independiente1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lanus Lanus
WWDLW
31 GF / 30 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
34 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
9
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
9
4.11
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lanus Lanus 29 matches
Independiente Independiente 24 matches
Lanus Statistic Independiente
12 Wins 10
6 Draws 6
11 Losses 8
31 Goals For 34
30 Goals Against 31
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
9 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 7
11 Failed To Score 4
4.11 Shots On Goal 4
12.63 Total Shots 12.86
4.67 Corners 5.86
52.4% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Lanus Analysis

Lanus approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 24 points from 16 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats with a 18:15 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Yoshan Valois (2 goals), Felipe Peña Biafore (1 goals), with creative support from Lucas Besozzi (1 assists), Gonzalo Perez (1 assists), Dylan Aquino (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Independiente Analysis

With 24 points from 16 games and a place of 5, Independiente still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 24:20 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals), Matías Abaldo (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lanus won 7 times, Independiente won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from Lanus's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.1%)
Predicted formations: Lanus 4-2-3-1 / Independiente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lanus wins 7, draws 5, Independiente wins 3
Stats
Lanus Lanus
Independiente Independiente
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
10 Corner Kicks 5
18 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Goal 4
12 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 4
14 Shots insidebox 10
7 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 5
397 Total passes 379
309 Passes accurate 288
1.87 expected_goals 1.16
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lanus
Formation
Independiente
N. Losada
N. Losada
T. Guidara
T. Guidara
C. Izquierdoz
C. Izquierdoz
R. De Jesus
R. De Jesus
S. Marcich
S. Marcich
F. Pena Biafore
F. Pena Biafore
A. Cardozo
A. Cardozo
E. Salvio
E. Salvio
R. Carrera
🎯
R. Carrera
D. Aquino
D. Aquino
A. Wlk
A. Wlk
R. Rey
R. Rey
S. Arias
S. Arias
K. Lomonaco
K. Lomonaco
J. Arrayago
J. Arrayago
F. Zabala
F. Zabala
I. Marcone
I. Marcone
S. Montiel
🎯
S. Montiel
M. Perez Curci
M. Perez Curci
L. Millan
⚽ 2
L. Millan
J. Palais
J. Palais
G. Avalos
G. Avalos
Lanus 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
26
N. Losada
G
33
T. Guidara
↓ 85'
D
24
C. Izquierdoz
D
35
R. De Jesus
D
6
S. Marcich
D
5
F. Pena Biafore
↓ 77'
M
30
A. Cardozo
M
11
E. Salvio
↓ 64'
M
23
R. Carrera
🎯 50' 🟨 69'
M
25
D. Aquino
↓ 85'
M
20
A. Wlk
⚽ 50' ↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
1
F. Petroli
G
4
G. Perez
D
39
T. Laplace
M
3
N. Morgantini
↑ 85'
D
27
F. Sanchez
D
40
T. Lopez
D
13
J. Canale
D
8
F. N. Watson
M
16
M. Sepulveda
↑ 64'
M
19
Y. Valois
↑ 64'
F
77
L. Besozzi
↑ 77'
F
38
B. Acosta
↑ 85' 🟨 89'
F
Independiente 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
33
R. Rey
🟨 90+5'
G
4
S. Arias
D
26
K. Lomonaco
D
35
J. Arrayago
D
22
F. Zabala
D
23
I. Marcone
🟨 87'
M
7
S. Montiel
🎯 37' ↓ 77'
M
16
M. Perez Curci
↓ 61'
M
14
L. Millan
⚽ 37' ⚽ 47' ↓ 61'
M
24
J. Palais
↓ 77'
M
9
G. Avalos
↓ 90+1' 🟨 87'
F
Substitutes
77
S. Mele
G
21
F. Closter
D
8
M. Meza
↑ 61'
F
20
F. Cruz
↑ 90+1'
M
10
L. Cabral
M
32
D. Martinez
↑ 61'
M
40
J. Velardez
D
28
M. Gutierrez
⚽ 90' ↑ 77'
F
19
M. Abaldo
🎯 90' ↑ 77'
F
25
N. Junco
F
34
F. Tempone
F
39
R. Martino
D
Last matches: Lanus
12.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
3
0
W
06.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
03.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
0
1
L
26.07.26
Lig
Lanus
San Lorenzo
1
0
W
30.05.26
Cop
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
26.05.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
0
2
L
06.05.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
0
4
L
02.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
28.04.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0
0
D
21.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Gimnasia M.
0
1
L
16.04.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
1
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Banfield
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
0
1
L
01.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Platense
0
0
D
27.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Newells Old Boys
5
0
W
Last matches: Independiente
22.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
12.08.26
Cop
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
0
4
L
09.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
0
1
L
03.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
0
1
L
31.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
0
W
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
H2H: Lanus vs Independiente
17.08.26
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
3
L
13.02.26
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
2
0
L
13.10.25
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
0
2
W
06.04.25
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
1
D
18.10.24
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
0
2
L
27.05.23
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
1
1
D
13.08.22
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
1
D
01.05.22
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
0
W
13.09.21
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
0
1
W
16.02.21
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
0
1
W
17.12.20
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
1
3
W
10.12.20
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
0
0
D
25.10.19
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
0
2
W
15.09.19
H2H
Independiente
Lanus
2
2
D
27.11.18
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
0
W
Last matches: Lanus
03.08.26
Lig
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
0
1
L
26.07.26
Lig
Lanus
San Lorenzo
1
0
W
26.05.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
28.04.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
1
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Banfield
1
0
W
01.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Platense
0
0
D
17.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Newells Old Boys
5
0
W
05.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Boca Juniors
0
3
L
09.02.26
Lig
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
1
1
D
29.01.26
Lig
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
2
1
W
19.01.26
Cop
Lanus
Sarmiento de La Banda
4
1
W
H2H at home: Lanus
17.08.26
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
3
L
06.04.25
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
1
D
18.10.24
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
0
2
L
13.08.22
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
1
D
01.05.22
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
0
W
10.12.20
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
0
0
D
27.11.18
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
0
W
Last matches: Independiente
12.08.26
Cop
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
0
4
L
03.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
0
1
L
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
0
W
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
H2H away: Independiente
17.08.26
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
3
W
06.04.25
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
1
D
18.10.24
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
0
2
W
13.08.22
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
1
D
01.05.22
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
0
L
10.12.20
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
0
0
D
27.11.18
H2H
Lanus
Independiente
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.94
Home 2.31
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.58
Draw 1.92
Home 3.14
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.13
Over 1.25 1.40
Over 1.5 1.60
Over 1.75 1.79
Over 2.0 2.12
Over 2.25 2.51
Over 2.5 2.87
Over 3.5 5.93
Under 0.5 6.08
Under 1.25 3.03
Under 1.5 2.39
Under 1.75 2.08
Under 2.0 1.75
Under 2.25 1.55
Under 2.5 1.43
Under 3.5 1.14
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.88
Home 2.35
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 1.83
Home 3.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.05
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.5 1.57
Over 2.5 2.88
Over 3.5 6.00
Over 4.5 15.00
Over 5.5 29.00
Under 0.5 6.00
Under 1.5 2.25
Under 2.5 1.40
Under 3.5 1.12
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.56
Draw 2.91
Home 2.33
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 1.80
Home 3.06
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.11
Home 2.67
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.09
Over 0.75 1.13
Over 1.0 1.16
Over 1.25 1.40
Over 1.5 1.59
Over 1.75 1.77
Over 2.0 2.01
Over 2.25 2.32
Over 2.5 2.61
Over 2.75 3.14
Over 3.0 4.33
Over 3.25 4.74
Over 3.5 5.10
Over 3.75 6.88
Over 4.0 9.70
Over 4.5 12.50
Over 5.5 25.00
Under 0.5 5.40
Under 0.75 4.92
Under 1.0 4.33
Under 1.25 2.97
Under 1.5 2.35
Under 1.75 2.05
Under 2.0 1.69
Under 2.25 1.49
Under 2.5 1.39
Under 2.75 1.27
Under 3.0 1.14
Under 3.25 1.12
Under 3.5 1.10
Under 3.75 1.06
Under 4.0 1.01
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.95
Home 2.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 1.84
Home 3.05
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.20
Home 2.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.25 1.36
Over 1.5 1.55
Over 1.75 1.72
Over 2.0 2.02
Over 2.25 2.38
Over 2.5 2.75
Over 2.75 3.30
Over 3.5 5.50
Over 4.5 11.00
Under 0.5 6.10
Under 1.25 3.00
Under 1.5 2.38
Under 1.75 2.06
Under 2.0 1.75
Under 2.25 1.55
Under 2.5 1.43
Under 2.75 1.30
Under 3.5 1.13
Under 4.5 1.03

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L W L L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D D W D L
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D D D W W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L L W
6
Lanus Home
16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
L W L L W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L L W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
W L L W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W D W L W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W W L W L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
W D W L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L W W L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
W W L D L
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D L W L L
Knockout Phase