FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
08.09.2026 15:00
Lahden Stadion

Lahti vs Mariehamn Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.8%
Odds 1.58
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.8%
1.58
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.78
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.72
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.30
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Lahti Win 75.8%
Draw 9.2%
Mariehamn Win 15%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lahti1.51
Mariehamn0.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lahti Lahti
WWDLW
33 GF / 24 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
22 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
0.85
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
13
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
11
2.05
Shots on Goal
1.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lahti Lahti 26 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 26 matches
Lahti Statistic Mariehamn
10 Wins 4
8 Draws 7
8 Losses 15
33 Goals For 22
24 Goals Against 49
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
13 BTTS Yes 11
18 Over 1.5 23
9 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 6
9 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 13
2.05 Shots On Goal 1.4
6.15 Total Shots 4.3
2.55 Corners 2.2
28.1% Ball Possession 24.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lahti's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lahti expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Mariehamn in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. Lahti arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 32 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mariehamn.

Lahti Analysis

So far, Lahti have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 32 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 26:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martim Ferreira (1 goals), Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Y. Cassubie (1 goals), with creative support from Martim Ferreira (1 assists), Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), R. Sans (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Mariehamn Analysis

So far, Mariehamn have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 14 points from 22 matches. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 17:43 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), A. Stroud (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Lahti 4-3-3 / Mariehamn 4-2-3-1

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7
Lahti Home
22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)