ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: J. Lorenz
Laagri
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
K. Eerme · Assist: A. Jarve
Laagri
41'
A. Badamosi
Paide
🟨
44'
A. Jarve
Laagri
48'
M. Miller
Paide
🟨
56'
K. Kriis
Laagri
🟨
58'
O. Hoim
Paide
🔄
58'
S. Soo ↔ M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
58'
M. Kesa ↔ S. Kerge
Laagri
🟨
60'
E. Jarju
Paide
🔄
66'
S. Luts ↔ Victor Hugo
Paide
🔄
66'
R. Nigula ↔ Willian Lins
Paide
🔄
71'
K. Kriis ↔ R. Reimaa
Laagri
🔄
71'
R. Sillamaa ↔ J. Ndakala
Laagri
🟨
76'
M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
76'
M. P. Sohna ↔ H. Anier
Paide
🔄
76'
A. Badamosi ↔ D. Luts
Paide
🟨
81'
H. Anier
Paide
🟨
82'
Andrade
Paide
🔄
85'
K. Eerme ↔ A. Kose
Laagri
85'
K. Eerme
Laagri
🔄
86'
M. Miller ↔ P. A. Cham
Paide
🟨
90+3'
Willian Lins
Paide

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 41.7%
Draw 16.2%
Paide Win 42.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.67
Paide1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
27 GF / 19 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
29 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.93
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
9
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 14 matches
Paide Paide 15 matches
Laagri Statistic Paide
8 Wins 9
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 3
27 Goals For 29
19 Goals Against 19
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
9 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Paide's more proactive style and Laagri's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paide. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control. Paide carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Laagri sit 4 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Paide look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 12 points after 7 matches. The return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 9:9, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Binate (2 goals), K. Kriis (2 goals), A. Jarve (1 goals), with creative support from Rudenko Daniil (5 assists), A. Binate (1 assists), K. Kriis (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Paide approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 16 points after 7 outings. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:7, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Daniel Cabral (3 goals), M. P. Sohna (3 goals), R. Nigula (2 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), K. Piht (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 2 times, Paide won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:18 from Laagri's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.82 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: Laagri - / Paide 4-3-3
H2H summary: Laagri wins 2, draws 2, Paide wins 7

Lineups

Laagri
Formation
Paide
J. Vainula
J. Vainula
A. Jarve
🎯
A. Jarve
S. Liit
S. Liit
K. Laur
K. Laur
I. Kartau
I. Kartau
S. Soo
S. Soo
Rudenko Daniil
Rudenko Daniil
M. Kesa
M. Kesa
R. Sillamaa
R. Sillamaa
K. Kriis
K. Kriis
K. Eerme
⚽ 2
K. Eerme
E. Jarju
E. Jarju
M. Lilander
M. Lilander
G. Juhkam
G. Juhkam
Andrade
Andrade
R. Nigula
R. Nigula
R. Smirnov
R. Smirnov
M. P. Sohna
M. P. Sohna
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
M. Miller
M. Miller
A. Badamosi
A. Badamosi
S. Luts
S. Luts
Laagri 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
J. Vainula
4
A. Jarve
🎯 18' 🟨 44'
15
S. Liit
24
K. Laur
5
I. Kartau
21
S. Soo
↓ 58'
23
Rudenko Daniil
22
M. Kesa
↓ 58'
13
R. Sillamaa
↓ 71'
16
K. Kriis
↓ 71' 🟨 56'
9
K. Eerme
⚽ 18' ⚽ 85' ↓ 85'
Substitutes
79
R. Meesit
6
H. Palutaja
7
R. Reimaa
↑ 71'
11
A. Kose
↑ 85'
17
M. Kelement
↑ 58' 🟨 76'
18
I. Bah
19
A. Binate
32
S. Kerge
↑ 58'
41
E. Kajari
47
K. Ennuste
53
J. Ndakala
↑ 71'
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
E. Jarju
🟨 60'
2
M. Lilander
5
G. Juhkam
4
Andrade
🟨 82'
24
R. Nigula
↓ 66'
21
R. Smirnov
11
M. P. Sohna
↓ 76'
28
O. Hoim
🟨 58'
10
M. Miller
⚽ 48' ↓ 86'
30
A. Badamosi
⚽ 41' ↓ 76'
19
S. Luts
↓ 66'
Substitutes
12
M. Meerits
3
Victor Hugo
↑ 66'
9
H. Anier
↑ 76' 🟨 81'
15
H. Ojamaa
16
A. Surogin
17
P. A. Cham
↑ 86'
27
N. Baranov
43
Willian Lins
↑ 66' 🟨 90+3'
77
D. Luts
↑ 76'
Last matches: Laagri
19.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
10.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
05.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
2
L
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
Last matches: Paide
23.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
0
W
19.07.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
5
L
16.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
3
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
04.07.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H: Laagri vs Paide
19.07.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
17.06.26
H2H
Paide
Laagri
1
0
L
22.04.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
3
0
W
03.08.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
0
L
17.05.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
1
2
L
08.10.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
4
0
L
06.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
11.06.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
01.04.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
1
0
L
Last matches: Laagri
19.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
10.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Laagri
Tartu Welco
3
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Laagri
PK-35
1
1
D
H2H at home: Laagri
19.07.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
22.04.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
3
0
W
12.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
1
2
L
06.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
11.06.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
Last matches: Paide
19.07.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
5
L
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Paide
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
6
L
10.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
3
2
W
H2H away: Paide
19.07.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
5
2
L
22.04.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
3
0
L
12.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
1
2
W
06.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
W
11.06.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 19 12 0 7 39:21 18 36
L W W L W
3 20 10 5 5 33:16 17 35
D W D D L
4
Paide Away
20 9 5 6 32:28 4 32
L W D W W
5 20 8 2 10 28:38 -10 26
L W L W L
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 20 8 1 11 39:46 -7 25
W W L W L
8 20 8 1 11 30:34 -4 25
W W L L L
9 20 5 3 12 19:33 -14 18
D L L L D
10 20 4 1 15 15:47 -32 13
W L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga