ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
22.04.2026 16:00
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: J. Lorenz
Laagri
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
K. Eerme · Assist: A. Jarve
Laagri
41'
A. Badamosi
Paide
🟨
44'
A. Jarve
Laagri
48'
M. Miller
Paide
🟨
56'
K. Kriis
Laagri
🟨
58'
O. Hoim
Paide
🔄
58'
S. Soo ↔ M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
58'
M. Kesa ↔ S. Kerge
Laagri
🟨
60'
E. Jarju
Paide
🔄
66'
S. Luts ↔ Victor Hugo
Paide
🔄
66'
R. Nigula ↔ Willian Lins
Paide
🔄
71'
K. Kriis ↔ R. Reimaa
Laagri
🔄
71'
R. Sillamaa ↔ J. Ndakala
Laagri
🟨
76'
M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
76'
M. P. Sohna ↔ H. Anier
Paide
🔄
76'
A. Badamosi ↔ D. Luts
Paide
🟨
81'
H. Anier
Paide
🟨
82'
Andrade
Paide
🔄
85'
K. Eerme ↔ A. Kose
Laagri
85'
K. Eerme
Laagri
🔄
86'
M. Miller ↔ P. A. Cham
Paide
🟨
90+3'
Willian Lins
Paide

Laagri vs Paide Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 41.7%
Draw 16.2%
Paide Win 42.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.67
Paide1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
27 GF / 19 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
29 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.93
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
9
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 14 matches
Paide Paide 15 matches
Laagri Statistic Paide
8 Wins 9
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 3
27 Goals For 29
19 Goals Against 19
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
9 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Paide's more proactive style and Laagri's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paide. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control. Paide carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Laagri sit 4 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Paide look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 12 points after 7 matches. The return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 9:9, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Binate (2 goals), K. Kriis (2 goals), A. Jarve (1 goals), with creative support from Rudenko Daniil (5 assists), A. Binate (1 assists), K. Kriis (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Paide approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 16 points after 7 outings. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:7, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Daniel Cabral (3 goals), M. P. Sohna (3 goals), R. Nigula (2 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), K. Piht (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 2 times, Paide won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:18 from Laagri's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.82 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: Laagri 4-2-3-1 / Paide 4-3-3
H2H summary: Laagri wins 2, draws 2, Paide wins 7

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 18 5 1 64:20 44 59
W W W W D
2 25 15 0 10 49:32 17 45
W L L W L
3 25 13 5 7 45:22 23 44
L L W W W
4
Paide Away
24 12 6 6 40:31 9 42
W W D W L
5 24 12 2 10 31:35 -4 38
L W W W W
6 25 10 1 14 36:41 -5 31
W W L L L
7 24 8 4 12 33:46 -13 28
D L L D L
8 25 8 1 16 42:60 -18 25
L L L L L
9 25 7 4 14 27:41 -14 25
D L W W L
10 25 5 2 18 18:57 -39 17
L L D L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga