URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
La Luz Win 44.1%
Draw 16.9%
Rentistas Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
La Luz0.91
Rentistas0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
La Luz La Luz
WWDLW
13 GF / 14 GA
Rentistas Rentistas
WLDWL
17 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
5
BTTS Yes
10
4
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

La Luz La Luz 16 matches
Rentistas Rentistas 17 matches
La Luz Statistic Rentistas
4 Wins 6
8 Draws 6
4 Losses 5
13 Goals For 17
14 Goals Against 18
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
5 BTTS Yes 10
10 Over 1.5 12
4 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 1
8 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rentistas. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Rentistas having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

La Luz Analysis

La Luz sit 9 with 13 points after 10 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 8:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rentistas Analysis

Rentistas approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 14 points after 10 outings. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 11:13, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, La Luz won 1 times, Rentistas won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from La Luz's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
H2H summary: La Luz wins 1, draws 2, Rentistas wins 1
Last matches: La Luz
13.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
04.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Seg
La Luz
CA River Plate
0
0
D
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
14.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
0
4
L
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
31.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
17.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
0
D
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
22.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
17.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
18.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
04.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Rentistas
18.07.26
Seg
Rentistas
Cerrito
0
0
D
12.07.26
Seg
Rentistas
Atenas
3
1
W
04.07.26
Seg
Rentistas
Paysandu
1
2
L
27.06.26
Seg
Rentistas
Sportivo Huracan
2
1
W
21.06.26
Seg
Rentistas
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
13.06.26
Seg
Rentistas
Oriental
0
3
L
07.06.26
Seg
Rentistas
Colón
0
2
L
31.05.26
Seg
Rentistas
Fenix
1
1
D
23.05.26
Seg
Rentistas
CA River Plate
1
2
L
17.05.26
Seg
Rentistas
Miramar
1
0
W
10.05.26
Seg
Rentistas
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
29.04.26
Seg
Rentistas
Miramar
1
1
D
20.04.26
Seg
Rentistas
Oriental
1
2
L
10.04.26
Seg
Rentistas
Paysandu
1
0
W
28.03.26
Seg
Rentistas
Colón
2
1
W
23.03.26
Seg
Rentistas
CA River Plate
1
1
D
14.03.26
Seg
Rentistas
Plaza Colonia
0
0
D
24.10.25
Seg
Rentistas
Oriental
1
2
L
17.10.25
Seg
Rentistas
Uruguay Montevideo
1
3
L
12.10.25
Seg
Rentistas
Albion FC
1
4
L
H2H: La Luz vs Rentistas
26.08.25
H2H
La Luz
Rentistas
2
0
W
04.06.25
H2H
Rentistas
La Luz
3
2
L
11.10.24
H2H
La Luz
Rentistas
0
0
D
05.07.24
H2H
Rentistas
La Luz
1
1
D
Last matches: La Luz
13.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
18.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
04.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
1
0
W
19.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Rampla Juniors
1
1
D
05.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Central Espanol
0
4
L
26.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Rentistas
2
0
W
10.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
1
L
02.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
19.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
06.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
2
2
D
24.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
1
1
D
07.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
2
L
01.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Artigas
1
1
D
H2H at home: La Luz
26.08.25
H2H
La Luz
Rentistas
2
0
W
11.10.24
H2H
La Luz
Rentistas
0
0
D
Last matches: Rentistas
12.07.26
Seg
Rentistas
Atenas
3
1
W
27.06.26
Seg
Rentistas
Sportivo Huracan
2
1
W
13.06.26
Seg
Rentistas
Oriental
0
3
L
31.05.26
Seg
Rentistas
Fenix
1
1
D
10.05.26
Seg
Rentistas
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
10.04.26
Seg
Rentistas
Paysandu
1
0
W
28.03.26
Seg
Rentistas
Colón
2
1
W
23.03.26
Seg
Rentistas
CA River Plate
1
1
D
24.10.25
Seg
Rentistas
Oriental
1
2
L
12.10.25
Seg
Rentistas
Albion FC
1
4
L
27.09.25
Seg
Rentistas
Rampla Juniors
1
2
L
13.09.25
Seg
Rentistas
Central Espanol
0
1
L
31.08.25
Seg
Rentistas
Artigas
2
1
W
26.08.25
Seg
Rentistas
La Luz
0
2
L
15.08.25
Seg
Rentistas
Colón
0
4
L
26.07.25
Seg
Rentistas
Uruguay Montevideo
3
1
W
12.07.25
Seg
Rentistas
Fenix
0
0
D
29.06.25
Seg
Rentistas
Atenas
2
0
W
15.06.25
Seg
Rentistas
Tacuarembo
1
2
L
31.05.25
Seg
Rentistas
Cerrito
2
1
W
H2H away: Rentistas
26.08.25
H2H
La Luz
Rentistas
2
0
L
11.10.24
H2H
La Luz
Rentistas
0
0
D

Standings

Segunda Division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 18:11 7 19
L D W W W
2 10 5 3 2 15:13 2 18
W D W L L
3 10 5 2 3 17:16 1 17
W W D L W
4 10 4 3 3 10:9 1 15
W W D W D
5 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W L W W L
6 10 4 2 4 8:10 -2 14
L D L W L
7 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
L W L D D
8 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
L D W L W
9 10 3 4 3 8:8 0 13
W L D W L
10 10 4 1 5 10:11 -1 13
L W L L W
11 10 2 6 2 15:13 2 12
D L D D W
12 10 3 3 4 8:12 -4 12
L L L W W
13 10 3 1 6 12:15 -3 10
W W L L L
14 10 2 2 6 10:15 -5 8
D L W L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura)