JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
11.09.2026 10:00
Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.4%
Odds 1.88
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.77
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.4%
1.88
BTTS Yes
86%
1.70
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.77
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82%
1.27
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Kyoto Sanga Win 26.1%
Draw 4.5%
Kashiwa Reysol Win 69.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kyoto Sanga1.23
Kashiwa Reysol1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WWDLW
7 GF / 11 GA
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol
WLDWL
10 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
5
BTTS Yes
3
4
Over 2.5
3
4.17
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 6 matches
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 6 matches
Kyoto Sanga Statistic Kashiwa Reysol
1 Wins 4
2 Draws 0
3 Losses 2
7 Goals For 10
11 Goals Against 8
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
5 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
4.17 Shots On Goal 4.5
11.33 Total Shots 13.5
2.5 Corners 5.5
45.3% Ball Possession 59.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kashiwa Reysol's more proactive style and Kyoto Sanga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kyoto Sanga expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Kashiwa Reysol in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kashiwa Reysol having the stronger overall control. Kashiwa Reysol carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 12 points while Kyoto Sanga sit 15 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Kashiwa Reysol. Kashiwa Reysol look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

With 5 points from 5 games and a place of 15, Kyoto Sanga still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 7:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Rafael Elias (2 goals), R. Nakano (2 goals), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Elias (1 assists), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 assists), R. Kato (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kashiwa Reysol Analysis

Kashiwa Reysol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 12 points after 5 matches. With 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:6, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Y. Koizumi (1 goals), Y. Kakita (1 goals), with creative support from N. Nakagawa (1 assists), T. Kubo (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kyoto Sanga won 4 times, Kashiwa Reysol won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:33 from Kyoto Sanga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Kyoto Sanga 4-2-3-1 / Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kyoto Sanga wins 4, draws 6, Kashiwa Reysol wins 5

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 18:5 13 16
W W D W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W W W L D
3 6 4 0 2 13:11 2 12
L L W W W
4 6 4 0 2 10:8 2 12
L L W W W
5 6 3 2 1 13:5 8 11
L W D D W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W D W W D
7 6 3 1 2 10:8 2 10
W D L W W
8 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
W W L D W
9 6 3 1 2 5:5 0 10
D W L W L
10 6 2 3 1 12:9 3 9
W L W D D
11 6 2 3 1 11:8 3 9
D W D W D
12 6 3 0 3 12:15 -3 9
W W W L L
13 6 1 3 2 8:11 -3 6
L D D L D
14 6 2 0 4 7:11 -4 6
L L W W L
15 6 1 2 3 7:11 -4 5
L D W L D
16 6 1 1 4 9:10 -1 4
D L L L W
17 6 1 1 4 3:7 -4 4
L D L L L
18 6 1 1 4 7:14 -7 4
L D L L L
19 6 0 3 3 2:8 -6 3
D L L D L
20 6 1 0 5 5:15 -10 3
W L L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League