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ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
24.10.2026 11:30
Kuressaare Linnastaadion

Kuressaare vs Paide Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 38%
Draw 11.5%
Paide Win 50.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.24
Paide1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
45 GF / 68 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
74 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.84
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
19
BTTS Yes
31
21
Over 2.5
25
0
Shots on Goal
0.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 37 matches
Paide Paide 46 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Paide
11 Wins 23
7 Draws 10
19 Losses 13
45 Goals For 74
68 Goals Against 59
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.84 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
19 BTTS Yes 31
27 Over 1.5 36
21 Over 2.5 25
15 Over 3.5 16
6 Clean Sheets 10
15 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0.43
0 Total Shots 1.43
0 Corners 0.71
0% Ball Possession 8.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Paide's more proactive style and Kuressaare's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Paide. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Paide carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 54 points while Kuressaare sit 8 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control.

Kuressaare Analysis

Kuressaare are currently 8 in the standings with 35 points from 31 matches. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 16 defeats, together with a 34:49 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 54 points from 31 games, Paide bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 16 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats plus a goal balance of 50:38, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 0 times, Paide won 12 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:30 from Kuressaare's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.5%)
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 0, draws 3, Paide wins 12

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 25 6 1 87:22 65 81
W W W D W
2 32 19 1 12 62:44 18 58
W L L W W
3
Paide Away
32 17 6 9 52:39 13 57
W W L W W
4 32 15 6 11 54:33 21 51
L D L W W
5 32 15 2 15 42:51 -9 47
L L W L L
6 32 14 2 16 45:47 -2 44
W W W D W
7 32 10 6 16 43:63 -20 36
L D D L L
8 32 10 5 17 34:51 -17 35
L W W D L
9 32 10 1 21 50:74 -24 31
W L L L L
10 32 5 5 22 25:70 -45 20
L L D D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga