RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
01.05.2026 14:00
Samara Arena
Referee: S. Karasev
Krylia Sovetov
Match Timeline
Spartak Moscow
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
Fernando Costanza
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
57'
G. Fernandes ↔ I. Dmitriev
Spartak Moscow
🔄
58'
M. Banjac ↔ I. Akhmetov
Krylia Sovetov
64'
M. Ugalde · Assist: I. Dmitriev
Spartak Moscow
🟨
66'
Maksim Vityugov
Krylia Sovetov
🟨
70'
Ruslan Litvinov
Spartak Moscow
🔄
71'
I. Oleynikov ↔ K. Stolbov
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
72'
A. Rahmanovic ↔ A. Shumansky
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
75'
↔ D. Oroz
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
75'
S. Bozhin ↔ T. Galdames
Krylia Sovetov
77'
D. Denisov
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
83'
C. Wooh ↔ C. Martins
Spartak Moscow
🔄
83'
M. Ugalde ↔ L. Garcia
Spartak Moscow
🟨
86'
Pablo Solari
Spartak Moscow

Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
83.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Krylia Sovetov Win 28.1%
Draw 10%
Spartak Moscow Win 61.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Krylia Sovetov1.17
Spartak Moscow1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov
WWDLW
29 GF / 47 GA
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
WLDWL
44 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
13
BTTS Yes
18
12
Over 2.5
16
2.96
Shots on Goal
4.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov 27 matches
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 27 matches
Krylia Sovetov Statistic Spartak Moscow
6 Wins 14
8 Draws 6
13 Losses 7
29 Goals For 44
47 Goals Against 36
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
13 BTTS Yes 18
25 Over 1.5 23
12 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 3
2.96 Shots On Goal 4.37
8.63 Total Shots 13.67
3.89 Corners 5.33
46.4% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Spartak Moscow's more proactive style and Krylia Sovetov's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Spartak Moscow carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 48 points while Krylia Sovetov sit 13 on 26, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Spartak Moscow. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Krylia Sovetov Analysis

So far, Krylia Sovetov have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 26 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, while the 29:47 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on I. Oleynikov (5 goals), V. Rakov (5 goals), A. Rahmanovic (4 goals), with creative support from Ilzat Akhmetov (6 assists), N. Rasskazov (4 assists), I. Oleynikov (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with C. Geoffrey unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Spartak Moscow Analysis

Spartak Moscow approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 48 points after 27 outings. With 14 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 44:36, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by E. Barco (8 goals), Pablo Solari (7 goals), G. Fernandes (5 goals), with creative support from E. Barco (7 assists), Marquinhos (6 assists), I. Dmitriev (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with S. Babic unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Krylia Sovetov won 4 times, Spartak Moscow won 11 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:31 from Krylia Sovetov's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1 / Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Krylia Sovetov 1, Spartak Moscow 1
H2H summary: Krylia Sovetov wins 4, draws 0, Spartak Moscow wins 11

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation