UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
The Royals Park
Kitara
Match Timeline
NEC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
52'
R. Basangwa
NEC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
88.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kitara Win 51.8%
Draw 9.2%
NEC Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kitara1.09
NEC0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kitara Kitara
WWDLW
35 GF / 15 GA
NEC NEC
WLDWL
26 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1
0.6
Average Goals Conceded
0.62
8
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kitara Kitara 25 matches
NEC NEC 26 matches
Kitara Statistic NEC
15 Wins 11
6 Draws 12
4 Losses 3
35 Goals For 26
15 Goals Against 16
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.6 Avg Goals Conceded 0.62
8 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 3
13 Clean Sheets 15
6 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward NEC having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring NEC. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Kitara Analysis

Placed 2 with 54 points from 26 outings, Kitara continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 38:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Kaddu (9 goals), G. Ssenkaaba (4 goals), G. Wahab (4 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

NEC Analysis

NEC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 45 points after 26 matches. The return of 11 wins, 12 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 26:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Dhata (3 goals), H. Sebwalunyo (2 goals), J. Seremba (2 goals), with creative support from H. Sebwalunyo (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Kitara won 1 times, NEC won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from Kitara's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
H2H summary: Kitara wins 1, draws 1, NEC wins 4
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
2
3
L
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
Last matches: NEC
23.05.26
Pre
NEC
Calvary
0
2
L
20.05.26
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
L
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
0
W
09.04.26
Pre
NEC
URA
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
NEC
UPDF
1
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
NEC
KCCA
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
05.12.25
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
H2H: Kitara vs NEC
09.05.26
H2H
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
24.01.26
H2H
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
10.04.25
H2H
NEC
Kitara
2
1
L
19.09.24
H2H
Kitara
NEC
1
2
L
04.04.24
H2H
NEC
Kitara
1
0
L
02.12.23
H2H
Kitara
NEC
1
0
W
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
20.11.25
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
0
W
30.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
4
0
W
24.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
3
2
W
26.09.25
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
1
1
D
H2H at home: Kitara
09.05.26
H2H
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
19.09.24
H2H
Kitara
NEC
1
2
L
02.12.23
H2H
Kitara
NEC
1
0
W
Last matches: NEC
23.05.26
Pre
NEC
Calvary
0
2
L
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
1
D
20.11.25
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
1
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
02.10.25
Pre
NEC
URA
1
1
D
H2H away: NEC
09.05.26
H2H
Kitara
NEC
0
1
W
19.09.24
H2H
Kitara
NEC
1
2
W
02.12.23
H2H
Kitara
NEC
1
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6
NEC Away
30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League