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SCOTLAND › PREMIERSHIP
17.10.2026 14:00
The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park
Kilmarnock
Match Timeline
Motherwell
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
G. Kiltie
Kilmarnock
⚽
17'
A. Lowry
Motherwell
🔄
33'
M. Kamara ↔ J. Brandon
Kilmarnock
🔄
35'
B. Rice ↔ A. Tshibola
Kilmarnock
VAR
52'
George Stanger
Kilmarnock
🟨
55'
George Stanger
Kilmarnock
⚽
56'
S. Palmer-Houlden
Motherwell
⚽
58'
T. John-Jules · Assist: J. Brandon
Kilmarnock
🔄
68'
M. Moormann ↔ J. Girdwood-Reich
Motherwell
🔄
68'
A. Lowry ↔ J. Kanga
Motherwell
🔄
68'
S. Palmer-Houlden ↔ E. Bjorgolfsson
Motherwell
⚽
69'
G. Kiltie · Assist: J. Brandon
Kilmarnock
🔄
75'
L. Fadinger ↔ D. Levitt
Motherwell
🔄
77'
G. Kiltie ↔ I. Owen
Kilmarnock
🔄
77'
T. John-Jules ↔ D. Daniels
Kilmarnock
🔄
81'
T. Sparrow ↔ J. Koutroumbis
Motherwell

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 34.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
34.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Kilmarnock Win 31.8%
Draw 34.4%
Motherwell Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kilmarnock1.56
Motherwell1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
L D W D L
3 GF / 5 GA
Motherwell Motherwell
L L L L W
4 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.38
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
5
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
10
4.13
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 10 matches
Motherwell Motherwell 16 matches
Kilmarnock Statistic Motherwell
3 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
5 Losses 8
14 Goals For 22
20 Goals Against 29
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
5 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 5
4.13 Shots On Goal 3
10.25 Total Shots 8.29
4.63 Corners 3.57
42.3% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Motherwell. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Motherwell arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Kilmarnock Analysis

Kilmarnock are currently 12 in the standings with 5 points from 7 matches. The record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 6:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Hugill (1 goals), G. Kiltie (1 goals), G. Stanger (1 goals), with creative support from T. Lowery (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Motherwell Analysis

Motherwell sit 9 with 8 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 9:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Lowry (2 goals), Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise (1 goals), L. Fadinger (1 goals), with creative support from Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise (2 assists), T. Sparrow (2 assists), A. Lowry (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kilmarnock won 3 times, Motherwell won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:23 from Kilmarnock's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (68.2%)
Predicted formations: Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1 / Motherwell 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Kilmarnock wins 3, draws 6, Motherwell wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 0 1 25:6 19 27
W W W L W
2 10 7 2 1 17:7 10 23
W D W W W
3 10 6 1 3 22:15 7 19
W L W D L
4 10 4 3 3 14:14 0 15
W D W W D
5 10 4 2 4 14:12 2 14
L D W W L
6 10 4 1 5 11:18 -7 13
W L L L L
7 10 3 3 4 12:12 0 12
W W L D W
8 10 3 3 4 11:15 -4 12
L D W D L
9 10 3 2 5 12:13 -1 11
L W L D W
10 10 2 2 6 11:18 -7 8
L L L L L
11 10 2 2 6 10:23 -13 8
L W L D W
12 10 2 1 7 10:16 -6 7
L L L D L
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)