SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Rugby Park
Referee: C. Scott
Kilmarnock
Match Timeline
Dundee
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Finlay Robertson
Dundee
VAR
24'
Findlay Curtis
Kilmarnock
🟨
35'
Bruce Anderson
Kilmarnock
🟨
38'
Robbie Deas
Kilmarnock
🔄
58'
B. Anderson ↔ M. Watkins
Kilmarnock
62'
T. Lowery · Assist: M. Schjonning-Larsen
Kilmarnock
🔄
67'
C. Robertson ↔ J. Bevan
Dundee
🔄
68'
S. Wright ↔ C. Reilly
Dundee
🔄
68'
A. Hay ↔ J. Westley
Dundee
77'
T. Lowery
Dundee
🔄
78'
B. Halliday ↔ C. Oosenbrugh
Dundee
🟨
83'
Joe Bevan
Dundee
🟨
84'
Kieran O'Hara
Dundee
85'
J. Hugill
Kilmarnock
🔄
86'
J. Cotterill ↔ T. Yogane
Dundee
🔄
87'
M. Schjonning-Larsen ↔ L. Mayo
Kilmarnock
🔄
87'
↔ D. Watson
Kilmarnock
🟨
89'
Lewis Mayo
Kilmarnock
🟨
90+4'
Joe Hugill
Kilmarnock
🔄
90+2'
G. Kiltie ↔ R. McKenzie
Kilmarnock
90'
J. Hugill
Kilmarnock

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 85.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
85.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kilmarnock Win 54.6%
Draw 6.3%
Dundee Win 39.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kilmarnock1.34
Dundee1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
WWDLW
43 GF / 66 GA
Dundee Dundee
WLDWL
38 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
19
BTTS Yes
16
23
Over 2.5
20
3.83
Shots on Goal
3.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 36 matches
Dundee Dundee 36 matches
Kilmarnock Statistic Dundee
8 Wins 10
10 Draws 9
18 Losses 17
43 Goals For 38
66 Goals Against 56
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
19 BTTS Yes 16
30 Over 1.5 25
23 Over 2.5 20
14 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 15
3.83 Shots On Goal 3.22
11.06 Total Shots 10.08
4.36 Corners 3.86
42% Ball Possession 43.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Dundee. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kilmarnock expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Dundee in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundee having the stronger overall control.

Kilmarnock Analysis

Kilmarnock come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 34 points from 36 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses with goals at 43:66 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tyreece John-Jules (8 goals), Bruce Anderson (4 goals), G. Kiltie (4 goals), with creative support from G. Kiltie (6 assists), Tyreece John-Jules (2 assists), Bruce Anderson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundee Analysis

Placed 3 with 39 points from 36 outings, Dundee continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 17 losses with goals at 38:56 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Fatah (8 goals), Zachary Sapsford (8 goals), Simon Murray (7 goals), with creative support from C. Congreve (7 assists), W. Ferry (6 assists), L. Stephenson (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses fits a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kilmarnock won 4 times, Dundee won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:24 from Kilmarnock's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Kilmarnock 4-3-3 / Dundee 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Kilmarnock wins 4, draws 7, Dundee wins 4
Stats
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Dundee Dundee
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 2
13 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 6
7 Shots outsidebox 1
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
442 Total passes 420
357 Passes accurate 322
3.38 expected_goals 0.43
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Kilmarnock
Formation
Dundee
M. Stryjek
M. Stryjek
M. Schjonning-Larsen
🎯
M. Schjonning-Larsen
G. Stanger
G. Stanger
R. Deas
R. Deas
D. Thompson
D. Thompson
T. Lowery
⚽ 2
T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
A. Tshibola
F. Curtis
F. Curtis
G. Kiltie
G. Kiltie
B. Anderson
B. Anderson
J. Hugill
⚽ 2
J. Hugill
K. O'Hara
K. O'Hara
R. Astley
R. Astley
C. Robertson
C. Robertson
B. Koumetio
B. Koumetio
B. Halliday
B. Halliday
C. Jones
C. Jones
J. Cotterill
J. Cotterill
F. Robertson
F. Robertson
I. Samuels
I. Samuels
A. Hay
A. Hay
S. Wright
S. Wright
Kilmarnock 4-3-2-1
Starting XI
1
M. Stryjek
G
21
M. Schjonning-Larsen
🎯 62' ↓ 87'
D
14
G. Stanger
D
6
R. Deas
🟨 38'
D
3
D. Thompson
D
18
T. Lowery
⚽ 62' ⚽ 77'
M
36
A. Tshibola
M
52
F. Curtis
M
11
G. Kiltie
↓ 90+2'
M
19
B. Anderson
↓ 58' 🟨 35'
M
44
J. Hugill
⚽ 85' ⚽ 90' 🟨 90+4'
F
Substitutes
30
K. Wright
G
7
R. McKenzie
↑ 90+2'
M
31
L. Polworth
M
16
K. Magennis
M
5
L. Mayo
↑ 87' 🟨 89'
D
20
N. Clescenco
F
4
Z. Williams
D
23
M. Watkins
↑ 58'
F
12
D. Watson
↑ 87'
M
Dundee 3-5-2
Starting XI
13
K. O'Hara
🟨 84'
G
4
R. Astley
D
3
C. Robertson
↓ 67'
D
5
B. Koumetio
D
16
B. Halliday
↓ 78'
M
28
C. Jones
M
24
J. Cotterill
↓ 86'
M
10
F. Robertson
12
I. Samuels
M
11
A. Hay
↓ 68'
25
S. Wright
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
30
H. Sharp
G
27
J. Bevan
↑ 67' 🟨 83'
F
38
F. Valenzuela
M
8
P. Digby
M
14
L. Montsma
D
18
C. Reilly
↑ 68'
F
19
J. Westley
↑ 68'
F
17
T. Yogane
↑ 86'
M
52
C. Oosenbrugh
↑ 78'
M
Last matches: Kilmarnock
17.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
4
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
0
0
D
20.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
0
1
L
Last matches: Dundee
17.05.26
Pre
Dundee
Aberdeen
3
2
W
09.05.26
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
0
3
L
11.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Celtic
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Motherwell
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Hibernian
3
3
D
21.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Aberdeen
3
2
W
14.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
2
2
D
11.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Falkirk
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Rangers
0
3
L
11.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
1
0
W
30.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Falkirk
1
0
W
20.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Motherwell
0
1
L
H2H: Kilmarnock vs Dundee
12.05.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
11.04.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
17.01.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
30.12.25
H2H
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
1
L
23.08.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
0
0
D
10.05.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
2
W
30.11.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
1
D
03.11.24
H2H
Dundee
Kilmarnock
3
2
L
05.10.24
H2H
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
3
W
18.05.24
H2H
Dundee
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
02.03.24
H2H
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
20.01.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
0
W
30.12.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
23.09.23
H2H
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
24.05.21
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
Last matches: Kilmarnock
02.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
20.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
0
1
L
06.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
0
3
L
29.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
22.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
1
3
L
29.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
18.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
0
3
L
04.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
2
0
W
14.09.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
2
L
23.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
0
0
D
02.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
2
D
H2H at home: Kilmarnock
12.05.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
11.04.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
17.01.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
23.08.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
0
0
D
10.05.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
2
W
30.11.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
1
D
20.01.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
0
W
30.12.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
24.05.21
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
Last matches: Dundee
26.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
0
3
L
11.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Aberdeen
3
2
W
11.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Falkirk
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Rangers
0
3
L
03.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
1
0
W
20.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Motherwell
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
2
2
D
03.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Celtic
0
1
L
22.11.25
Pre
Dundee
Hibernian
0
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
Dundee
Heart Of Midlothian
0
4
L
25.10.25
Pre
Dundee
Falkirk
1
2
L
05.10.25
Pre
Dundee
Aberdeen
0
4
L
27.09.25
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
0
1
L
23.08.25
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
09.08.25
Pre
Dundee
Rangers
1
1
D
H2H away: Dundee
12.05.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
L
11.04.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
17.01.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
W
23.08.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
0
0
D
10.05.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
2
L
30.11.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
1
D
20.01.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
0
L
30.12.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
24.05.21
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 4 8 73:41 32 82
W W W W W
1 38 10 15 13 49:60 -11 45
D D L L W
2 38 24 8 6 67:34 33 80
L W D W W
2 38 11 9 18 42:61 -19 42
W L W W L
3 38 20 12 6 76:43 33 72
W L L L L
3 38 11 7 20 40:55 -15 40
L L W D W
4 38 16 13 9 59:36 23 61
W L D L W
4 38 10 10 18 50:68 -18 40
W W W W L
5 38 15 12 11 58:44 14 57
L W W L L
5 38 8 10 20 30:55 -25 34
W D D W L
6 38 14 7 17 50:62 -12 49
L L L W L
6 38 2 15 21 40:75 -35 21
L D L D W