SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Rugby Park
Referee: R. Lee
Kilmarnock
Match Timeline
Celtic
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
K. Hogh · Assist: A. Engels
Celtic
🟨
26'
Joe Hugill
Kilmarnock
33'
K. Hogh · Assist: B. Nygren
Celtic
35'
K. Hogh · Assist: C. Duran
Celtic
🔄
46'
A. Johnston ↔ C. Donovan
Celtic
47'
B. Nygren
Celtic
56'
M. Schjonning-Larsen · Assist: T. Lowery
Kilmarnock
🔄
64'
C. Duran ↔ S. Tounekti
Celtic
🔄
74'
M. Schjonning-Larsen ↔ M. O'Hara
Kilmarnock
🔄
74'
B. Nygren ↔ J. Forrest
Celtic
🔄
74'
Yang Hyun-Jun ↔ L. McCowan
Celtic
🔄
75'
T. John-Jules ↔ B. Rice
Kilmarnock
75'
L. McCowan
Celtic
🔄
82'
K. Hogh ↔ C. Osmand
Celtic

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kilmarnock Win 57.6%
Draw 3.7%
Celtic Win 38.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kilmarnock2.64
Celtic1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
WWDLW
10 GF / 6 GA
Celtic Celtic
WLDWL
6 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
3.33
Average Goals Scored
1.2
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
2
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
2
4
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 3 matches
Celtic Celtic 5 matches
Kilmarnock Statistic Celtic
2 Wins 1
0 Draws 3
1 Losses 1
10 Goals For 6
6 Goals Against 8
3.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
2 BTTS Yes 4
3 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 2
3 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 0
4 Shots On Goal 4
7 Total Shots 18
3 Corners 9
45% Ball Possession 65%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kilmarnock won 2 times, Celtic won 12 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:43 from Kilmarnock's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Kilmarnock 4-3-1-2 / Celtic 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Kilmarnock wins 2, draws 1, Celtic wins 12
Stats
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Celtic Celtic
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
16
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
10
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
7
5 Corner Kicks 7
12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 33
6 Shots on Goal 16
2 Shots off Goal 10
2 Blocked Shots 7
10 Shots insidebox 29
0 Shots outsidebox 4
11 Goalkeeper Saves 4
370 Total passes 661
301 Passes accurate 601
0.86 expected_goals 5.64
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Kilmarnock
Formation
Celtic
M. Stryjek
M. Stryjek
J. Brandon
J. Brandon
G. Stanger
G. Stanger
J. Yfeko
J. Yfeko
M. Schjonning-Larsen
M. Schjonning-Larsen
E. Ring
E. Ring
A. Tshibola
A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
🎯
T. Lowery
G. Kiltie
G. Kiltie
J. Hugill
J. Hugill
T. John-Jules
T. John-Jules
V. Sinisalo
V. Sinisalo
A. Johnston
A. Johnston
C. Carter-Vickers
C. Carter-Vickers
A. Trusty
A. Trusty
K. Tierney
K. Tierney
C. McGregor
C. McGregor
A. Engels
🎯
A. Engels
C. Duran
🎯
C. Duran
B. Nygren
🎯
B. Nygren
Yang Hyun-Jun
Yang Hyun-Jun
K. Hogh
⚽ 3
K. Hogh
Kilmarnock 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
M. Stryjek
G
2
J. Brandon
D
14
G. Stanger
D
15
J. Yfeko
D
21
M. Schjonning-Larsen
⚽ 56' ↓ 74'
D
8
E. Ring
M
36
A. Tshibola
M
18
T. Lowery
🎯 56'
M
11
G. Kiltie
M
9
J. Hugill
🟨 26'
F
10
T. John-Jules
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
12
C. Ferrie
G
7
R. McKenzie
M
20
N. Clescenco
F
27
I. Owen
F
5
M. O'Hara
↑ 74'
22
J. Thomson
49
B. Rice
↑ 75'
M
25
E. Schilte-Brown
D
39
E. Bowie
D
Celtic 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
V. Sinisalo
G
2
A. Johnston
↓ 46'
D
20
C. Carter-Vickers
D
6
A. Trusty
D
63
K. Tierney
D
42
C. McGregor
M
27
A. Engels
🎯 2'
M
11
C. Duran
🎯 35' ↓ 64'
M
8
B. Nygren
⚽ 47' 🎯 33' ↓ 74'
M
13
Yang Hyun-Jun
↓ 74'
M
9
K. Hogh
⚽ 2' ⚽ 33' ⚽ 35' ↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
31
R. Doohan
G
49
J. Forrest
↑ 74'
M
17
S. Tounekti
↑ 64'
F
21
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
M
41
R. Hatate
M
14
L. McCowan
⚽ 75' ↑ 74'
M
47
D. Murray
D
19
C. Osmand
↑ 82'
F
51
C. Donovan
↑ 46'
D
Last matches: Kilmarnock
02.08.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Johnstone
3
4
L
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
4
1
W
12.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
Last matches: Celtic
19.08.26
UEF
Celtic
Lask Linz
3
0
W
03.08.26
Pre
Celtic
Dundee
1
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Celtic
AC Milan
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Celtic
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
14.07.26
Fri
Celtic
Sporting CP
1
4
L
07.07.26
Fri
Celtic
Shelbourne
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pre
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
3
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
Celtic
Motherwell
3
2
W
10.05.26
Pre
Celtic
Rangers
3
1
W
03.05.26
Pre
Celtic
Hibernian
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pre
Celtic
Falkirk
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pre
Celtic
ST Mirren
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pre
Celtic
Dundee
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pre
Celtic
Dundee Utd
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Celtic
Motherwell
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Celtic
Aberdeen
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Celtic
Rangers
2
2
D
26.02.26
UEF
Celtic
VfB Stuttgart
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pre
Celtic
Hibernian
1
2
L
19.02.26
UEF
Celtic
VfB Stuttgart
1
4
L
H2H: Kilmarnock vs Celtic
09.08.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
5
L
15.02.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
09.11.25
H2H
Celtic
Kilmarnock
4
0
L
14.09.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
2
L
12.04.25
H2H
Celtic
Kilmarnock
5
1
L
18.01.25
H2H
Celtic
Kilmarnock
2
1
L
10.11.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
2
L
04.08.24
H2H
Celtic
Kilmarnock
4
0
L
15.05.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
5
L
17.02.24
H2H
Celtic
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
10.12.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
1
W
07.10.23
H2H
Celtic
Kilmarnock
3
1
L
20.08.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
0
W
16.04.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
4
L
14.01.23
H2H
Celtic
Kilmarnock
2
0
L
Last matches: Kilmarnock
12.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
20.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
0
1
L
06.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
0
3
L
29.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
22.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
1
3
L
29.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
18.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
0
3
L
04.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
2
0
W
14.09.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
2
L
23.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
0
0
D
02.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
2
D
H2H at home: Kilmarnock
09.08.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
5
L
15.02.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
14.09.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
2
L
10.11.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
2
L
15.05.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
5
L
10.12.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
1
W
20.08.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
0
W
16.04.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
4
L
Last matches: Celtic
14.07.26
Fri
Celtic
Sporting CP
1
4
L
07.07.26
Fri
Celtic
Shelbourne
1
1
D
13.05.26
Pre
Celtic
Motherwell
3
2
W
03.05.26
Pre
Celtic
Hibernian
2
1
W
05.04.26
Pre
Celtic
Dundee
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pre
Celtic
Dundee Utd
0
2
L
04.03.26
Pre
Celtic
Aberdeen
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Celtic
Rangers
2
2
D
26.02.26
UEF
Celtic
VfB Stuttgart
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pre
Celtic
Kilmarnock
3
2
W
25.01.26
Pre
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
2
2
D
22.01.26
UEF
Celtic
Bologna
2
2
D
14.01.26
Pre
Celtic
Falkirk
1
0
W
30.12.25
Pre
Celtic
Motherwell
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Celtic
Livingston
4
2
W
17.12.25
Pre
Celtic
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
30.11.25
Pre
Celtic
Hibernian
2
1
W
27.11.25
UEF
Celtic
Feyenoord
3
1
W
22.11.25
Pre
Celtic
ST Mirren
1
0
W
06.11.25
UEF
Celtic
FC Midtjylland
1
3
L
H2H away: Celtic
09.08.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
5
W
15.02.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
W
14.09.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
2
W
10.11.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
2
W
15.05.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
5
W
10.12.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
1
L
20.08.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
0
L
16.04.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
4
W