KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 96.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 98.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
96.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
98.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kibera Black Stars Win 60.7%
Draw 19.7%
Gucha Stars Win 19.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kibera Black Stars0.98
Gucha Stars0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars
WWDLW
27 GF / 24 GA
Gucha Stars Gucha Stars
WLDWL
25 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.9
Average Goals Scored
0.89
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
9
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars 30 matches
Gucha Stars Gucha Stars 28 matches
Kibera Black Stars Statistic Gucha Stars
15 Wins 8
4 Draws 6
11 Losses 14
27 Goals For 25
24 Goals Against 31
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
9 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 7
1 Over 3.5 5
13 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Kibera Black Stars's more proactive style and Gucha Stars's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Gucha Stars arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gucha Stars having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gucha Stars. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Kibera Black Stars Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Kibera Black Stars have collected 49 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 15 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 27:24 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Gucha Stars Analysis

With 33 points from 30 games and a place of 13, Gucha Stars still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 27:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Kibera Black Stars won 1 times, Gucha Stars won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Kibera Black Stars's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (80.3%)
H2H summary: Kibera Black Stars wins 1, draws 1, Gucha Stars wins 0
Last matches: Kibera Black Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
1
L
07.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
1
2
L
01.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MOFA
1
1
D
27.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
23.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
16.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
3K
1
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mwatate United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mombasa Elite
2
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Talanta
2
1
W
21.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
28.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Equity Bank
1
2
L
14.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
1
2
L
24.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
1
D
Last matches: Gucha Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Talanta
3
2
W
07.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
23.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Luanda Villa
2
1
W
16.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MOFA
1
2
L
09.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Naivas
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
18.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Equity Bank
1
1
D
03.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
29.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
2
L
25.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
3K
0
2
L
22.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MCF
1
1
D
28.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mwatate United
1
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Migori Youth
2
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
0
1
L
24.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
H2H: Kibera Black Stars vs Gucha Stars
02.05.26
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
13.12.25
H2H
Gucha Stars
Kibera Black Stars
0
1
W
Last matches: Kibera Black Stars
07.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
1
2
L
27.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
16.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
3K
1
2
L
25.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
11.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mombasa Elite
2
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
1
D
11.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Luanda Villa
2
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Migori Youth
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mwatate United
2
1
W
23.11.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
09.11.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Equity Bank
0
1
L
29.10.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
12.10.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MOFA
1
0
W
28.09.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Talanta
0
1
L
H2H at home: Kibera Black Stars
02.05.26
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
Last matches: Gucha Stars
07.06.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
16.05.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MOFA
1
2
L
18.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nairobi City Stars
0
2
L
03.04.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
0
1
L
29.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
2
L
14.03.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
MCF
1
1
D
28.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Mwatate United
1
3
L
15.02.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Soy United
0
1
L
17.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Equity Bank
2
3
L
07.01.26
Sup
Gucha Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
17.12.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Naivas
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Luanda Villa
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
3K
0
1
L
09.11.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
29.10.25
Sup
Gucha Stars
Talanta
0
0
D
H2H away: Gucha Stars
02.05.26
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
Gucha Stars
0
0
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation