ICELAND ÚRVALSDEILD
05.09.2026 16:30
Referee: I. O. Kristjansson

Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.8%
Odds 2.11
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds 1.30
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.8%
2.11
BTTS Yes
66.8%
1.30
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.32
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.38
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Keflavik Win 76.8%
Draw 4.8%
Valur Reykjavik Win 18.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Keflavik1.76
Valur Reykjavik1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Keflavik Keflavik
WWDLW
32 GF / 36 GA
Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik
WLDWL
40 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
2.12
15
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Keflavik Keflavik 21 matches
Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik 25 matches
Keflavik Statistic Valur Reykjavik
8 Wins 8
4 Draws 4
9 Losses 13
32 Goals For 40
36 Goals Against 53
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 2.12
15 BTTS Yes 16
17 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 14
5 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0.8
0 Total Shots 2.6
0 Corners 1
0% Ball Possession 13.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Valur Reykjavik. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Valur Reykjavik having the stronger overall control. Valur Reykjavik arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Keflavik Analysis

Keflavik come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 28 points after 20 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a 31:34 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Valur Reykjavik Analysis

Valur Reykjavik sit 8 with 23 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 35:42, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Keflavik won 1 times, Valur Reykjavik won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:21 from Keflavik's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Keflavik - / Valur Reykjavik 4-3-3
H2H summary: Keflavik wins 1, draws 4, Valur Reykjavik wins 6

Standings

Úrvalsdeild
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 5 1 67:21 46 53
W W D D W
2 22 13 6 3 56:42 14 45
D L D D W
3 22 13 5 4 74:49 25 44
L W L D W
4 22 8 6 8 43:41 2 30
L W L L L
5 22 8 6 8 39:41 -2 30
W L W D D
6 22 8 4 10 33:38 -5 28
D L L L W
7 22 8 4 10 42:50 -8 28
L W D W W
8 22 8 3 11 39:45 -6 27
D W W D L
9 22 4 9 9 27:39 -12 21
W W L W D
10 22 6 3 13 22:50 -28 21
L L W W L
11 22 5 5 12 35:48 -13 20
W L W D L
12 22 4 6 12 32:45 -13 18
D L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs