CZECH-REPUBLIC › CZECH LIGA
16.05.2026 15:00
Town Stadium Karvina
Referee: P. Orel
Karviná
Match Timeline
Sigma Olomouc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
A. Labik · Assist: J. Fiala
Karviná
⚽
41'
A. Rusek · Assist: F. Krivak
Sigma Olomouc
🔄
61'
A. Labik ↔ F. Prebsl
Karviná
🔄
61'
D. Grgic ↔ D. Sturm
Sigma Olomouc
🔄
61'
F. Krivak ↔ M. Mikulenka
Sigma Olomouc
🔄
62'
J. Kristan ↔ S. Bohac
Karviná
🔄
62'
O. Conde ↔ E. Ayaosi
Karviná
⚽
64'
L. Lurvink · Assist: D. Janosek
Sigma Olomouc
🟨
71'
Jiři Fleišman
Karviná
🔄
79'
D. Janosek ↔ M. Beran
Sigma Olomouc
🔄
82'
L. Ezeh ↔ Kahuan Vinicius
Karviná
🔄
86'
A. Ghali ↔ R. Palan
Sigma Olomouc
🔄
86'
A. Rusek ↔ J. Sip
Sigma Olomouc
🟨
90+3'
Radek Palan
Sigma Olomouc
⚽
90'
M. Mikulenka · Assist: D. Sturm
Sigma Olomouc

Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 98.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
98.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Karviná Win 25.6%
Draw 0%
Sigma Olomouc Win 74.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Karviná1.38
Sigma Olomouc1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Karviná Karviná
WWDLW
47 GF / 54 GA
Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc
WLDWL
48 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
21
BTTS Yes
22
23
Over 2.5
21
4.94
Shots on Goal
3.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Karviná Karviná 32 matches
Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 44 matches
Karviná Statistic Sigma Olomouc
13 Wins 16
3 Draws 10
16 Losses 18
47 Goals For 48
54 Goals Against 55
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
21 BTTS Yes 22
29 Over 1.5 30
23 Over 2.5 21
10 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 15
4.94 Shots On Goal 3.55
14.38 Total Shots 12.55
4.94 Corners 4.68
54.1% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 2-2, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Sigma Olomouc controlled more possession in the first leg (63% against 37%). Sigma Olomouc carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 7 shots on goal compared to 4. Sigma Olomouc circulated the ball more often, making 474 passes to 276 and completing 389. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sigma Olomouc. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Karviná expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sigma Olomouc in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sigma Olomouc having the stronger overall control. Sigma Olomouc arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Karviná Analysis

Karviná come into this tie placed 9 in their league with 39 points from 30 matches. Their record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 15 defeats with goals at 43:51 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on D. Krcik (11 goals), A. Gning (9 goals), E. Ayaosi (6 goals), with creative support from E. Ayaosi (7 assists), Denny Samko (4 assists), A. Labik (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sigma Olomouc Analysis

Sigma Olomouc come into this tie placed 7 in their league with 43 points from 30 matches. Their record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats with goals at 34:34 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on D. Vasulin (9 goals), Antonín Růsek (4 goals), Danijel Šturm (4 goals), with creative support from Antonín Růsek (3 assists), Matěj Hadaš (3 assists), Danijel Šturm (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Karviná won 2 times, Sigma Olomouc won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:30 from Karviná's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Karviná 4-2-3-1 / Sigma Olomouc 3-4-3
H2H summary: Karviná wins 2, draws 4, Sigma Olomouc wins 9

Standings

1. Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 21 8 1 63:23 40 71
W L W W W
2 30 19 6 5 60:33 27 63
W W D W L
3 30 15 8 7 50:34 16 53
L W D W W
4 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L L D L
5 30 14 7 9 43:34 9 49
L W W D L
6 30 12 10 8 43:30 13 46
L L L L L
7 30 12 7 11 34:34 0 43
W W L W L
8 30 11 8 11 39:46 -7 41
L W W W W
9 30 12 3 15 43:51 -8 39
L L W L L
10 30 10 6 14 26:35 -9 36
W L W W W
11 30 8 11 11 44:52 -8 35
L W L D D
12 30 9 7 14 37:48 -11 34
W L L D W
13 30 6 11 13 29:38 -9 29
W W W W D
14 30 4 11 15 20:42 -22 23
L L W L L
15 30 5 8 17 26:45 -19 23
W W L L W
16 30 5 7 18 25:45 -20 22
W W W W L
Championship round
Qualification Playoffs
Relegation Round