CZECH-REPUBLIC CZECH LIGA
02.05.2026 13:00
Town Stadium Karvina
Referee: J. Machalek
Karviná
Match Timeline
Pardubice
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
V. Patrak · Assist: V. Samuel
Pardubice
45'
D. Samko · Assist: S. Camara
Karviná
51'
V. Samuel · Assist: A. Tanko
Pardubice
🔄
62'
V. Samuel ↔ D. Smekal
Pardubice
🔄
62'
S. Kopasek ↔ E. Godwin
Pardubice
🔄
62'
M. Hlavaty ↔ T. Jelinek
Pardubice
🔄
67'
A. Traore ↔ Kahuan Vinicius
Karviná
🔄
67'
Y. Lawali ↔ J. Kristan
Karviná
🟨
70'
Filip Prebsl
Karviná
🔄
75'
P. Kacor ↔ J. Fiala
Karviná
🔄
75'
F. Prebsl ↔ N. Milic
Karviná
🔄
77'
V. Patrak ↔ J. Zima
Pardubice
🟨
79'
Jan Trédl
Pardubice
🔄
86'
S. Camara ↔ S. Sloncik
Karviná
🔄
90+1'
T. Boledovic ↔ R. Mahuta
Pardubice

Karviná vs Pardubice Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Karviná Win 17.6%
Draw 15.7%
Pardubice Win 66.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Karviná1.47
Pardubice1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Karviná Karviná
WWDLW
43 GF / 51 GA
Pardubice Pardubice
WLDWL
39 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
19
BTTS Yes
20
21
Over 2.5
15
4.97
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Karviná Karviná 30 matches
Pardubice Pardubice 30 matches
Karviná Statistic Pardubice
12 Wins 11
3 Draws 8
15 Losses 11
43 Goals For 39
51 Goals Against 46
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
19 BTTS Yes 20
27 Over 1.5 26
21 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 7
4.97 Shots On Goal 3.43
14.33 Total Shots 10.27
4.83 Corners 4.37
53.5% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Pardubice have the edge after taking the first leg 2-1, leaving Karviná needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Karviná had more of the ball in the first leg (63% possession compared to 37%). Karviná were also more accurate in attack, recording 5 shots on target to 2. Karviná also attempted more passes (400 to 240) and completed 318. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Pardubice. Pardubice look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Karviná expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Pardubice in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pardubice having the stronger overall control.

Karviná Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Karviná arrive from a league campaign that has them 9 with 39 points after 30 matches. Their record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 15 defeats with goals at 43:51 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on D. Krcik (11 goals), A. Gning (9 goals), E. Ayaosi (6 goals), with creative support from E. Ayaosi (7 assists), Denny Samko (4 assists), A. Labik (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

Pardubice Analysis

Pardubice come into this tie placed 8 in their league with 41 points from 30 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats with goals at 39:46 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking weight falls on V. Patrak (11 goals), Abdullahi Tanko (7 goals), D. Smekal (4 goals), with creative support from Abdullahi Tanko (5 assists), Ryan Mahuta (4 assists), D. Smekal (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Karviná won 4 times, Pardubice won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:26 from Karviná's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Predicted formations: Karviná 4-2-3-1 / Pardubice 3-4-3
H2H summary: Karviná wins 4, draws 2, Pardubice wins 8

Standings

1. Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 21 8 1 63:23 40 71
W L W W W
2 30 19 6 5 60:33 27 63
W W D W L
3 30 15 8 7 50:34 16 53
L W D W W
4 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L L D L
5 30 14 7 9 43:34 9 49
L W W D L
6 30 12 10 8 43:30 13 46
L L L L L
7 30 12 7 11 34:34 0 43
W W L W L
8 30 11 8 11 39:46 -7 41
L W W W W
9 30 12 3 15 43:51 -8 39
L L W L L
10 30 10 6 14 26:35 -9 36
W L W W W
11 30 8 11 11 44:52 -8 35
L W L D D
12 30 9 7 14 37:48 -11 34
W L L D W
13 30 6 11 13 29:38 -9 29
W W W W D
14 30 4 11 15 20:42 -22 23
L L W L L
15 30 5 8 17 26:45 -19 23
W W L L W
16 30 5 7 18 25:45 -20 22
W W W W L
Championship round
Qualification Playoffs
Relegation Round