ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Hiiu Stadium
Referee: G. Osomkov
Kalju Nomme
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
A. Badamosi
Paide
🔄
46'
M. Miller ↔ D. Luts
Paide
🔄
58'
S. Luts ↔ H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
58'
A. Badamosi ↔ H. Anier
Paide
🔄
61'
N. Ivanov ↔ T. Baptista
Kalju Nomme
🔄
61'
D. Sotsugov ↔ I. Jabir
Kalju Nomme
66'
T. Baptista · Assist: R. Vukusic
Kalju Nomme
🔄
68'
A. Nikolajev ↔ D. Tarassenkov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
68'
E. E. Lotar Eyang ↔ M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
72'
Daniel Cabral ↔ K. Piht
Paide
🟨
83'
M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
85'
N. Baranov ↔ Andrade
Paide
87'
K. Piht
Paide
🟨
90'
D. Mashchenko
Kalju Nomme

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.8%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kalju Nomme Win 35%
Draw 6.2%
Paide Win 58.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kalju Nomme1.66
Paide1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme
WWDLW
49 GF / 25 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
41 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.64
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
13
BTTS Yes
18
12
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme 26 matches
Paide Paide 25 matches
Kalju Nomme Statistic Paide
13 Wins 12
6 Draws 6
7 Losses 7
49 Goals For 41
25 Goals Against 33
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
13 BTTS Yes 18
21 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 11
10 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Paide. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control.

Kalju Nomme Analysis

Placed 3 with 30 points from 17 outings, Kalju Nomme continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 29:14 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Mannilaan (7 goals), N. Ivanov (5 goals), M. Orlov (3 goals), with creative support from M. Orlov (4 assists), R. Siht (3 assists), N. Ivanov (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Paide Analysis

Paide come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 25 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 24:20 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Daniel Cabral (5 goals), H. Anier (4 goals), M. P. Sohna (4 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), Victor Hugo (2 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kalju Nomme won 3 times, Paide won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:25 from Kalju Nomme's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Kalju Nomme 4-4-2 / Paide 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Kalju Nomme wins 3, draws 6, Paide wins 6

Lineups

Kalju Nomme
Formation
Paide
H. Perk
H. Perk
D. Mashchenko
D. Mashchenko
M. Tambedou
M. Tambedou
M. Podholjuzin
M. Podholjuzin
R. Vukusic
🎯
R. Vukusic
B. Vastsuk
B. Vastsuk
D. Sotsugov
D. Sotsugov
R. Siht
R. Siht
N. Ivanov
N. Ivanov
A. Nikolajev
A. Nikolajev
E. E. Lotar Eyang
E. E. Lotar Eyang
E. Jarju
E. Jarju
E. Tur
E. Tur
N. Baranov
N. Baranov
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo
M. Lilander
M. Lilander
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
S. Luts
S. Luts
M. Miller
M. Miller
M. P. Sohna
M. P. Sohna
A. Badamosi
A. Badamosi
Kalju Nomme 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
H. Perk
78
D. Mashchenko
🟨 90'
20
M. Tambedou
50
M. Podholjuzin
46
R. Vukusic
🎯 66'
59
B. Vastsuk
88
D. Sotsugov
↓ 61'
26
R. Siht
10
N. Ivanov
↓ 61'
22
A. Nikolajev
↓ 68'
17
E. E. Lotar Eyang
↓ 68'
Substitutes
96
J. Kindel
2
J. Lillemets
4
A. Borolinstsikov
7
D. Tarassenkov
↑ 68'
11
M. Orlov
↑ 68' 🟨 83'
14
J. Pihkva
21
T. Baptista
⚽ 66' ↑ 61'
30
I. Jabir
↑ 61'
74
F. Jekimov
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
E. Jarju
7
E. Tur
27
N. Baranov
↓ 85'
3
Victor Hugo
2
M. Lilander
6
Daniel Cabral
↓ 72'
28
O. Hoim
19
S. Luts
↓ 58'
10
M. Miller
↓ 46'
11
M. P. Sohna
30
A. Badamosi
↓ 58' 🟨 21'
Substitutes
12
M. Meerits
4
Andrade
↑ 85'
8
H. Ojamaa
↑ 58'
9
H. Anier
↑ 58'
15
H. Ojamaa
16
A. Surogin
17
P. A. Cham
20
K. Piht
⚽ 87' ↑ 72'
21
R. Smirnov
24
R. Nigula
77
D. Luts
↑ 46'
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
02.08.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
5
1
W
30.07.26
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Shelbourne
2
1
W
23.07.26
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Shelbourne
2
5
L
19.07.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
0
0
D
16.07.26
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Linfield
2
2
D
09.07.26
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Linfield
1
0
W
03.07.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
3
1
W
20.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
17.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
2
L
14.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
30.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
1
0
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
2
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
01.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
3
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
7
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
1
L
12.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
08.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
2
0
W
Last matches: Paide
06.08.26
UEF
Paide
Rapid Vienna
1
4
L
02.08.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
30.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
1
D
23.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
0
W
19.07.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
5
L
16.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
3
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
04.07.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
H2H: Kalju Nomme vs Paide
28.06.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
14.06.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
19.04.26
H2H
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
L
14.02.26
H2H
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
L
08.11.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
14.09.25
H2H
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
28.05.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
2
L
09.03.25
H2H
Paide
Kalju Nomme
4
0
L
05.03.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
0
W
06.10.24
H2H
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
01.09.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
2
4
L
22.05.24
H2H
Paide
Kalju Nomme
0
2
W
08.05.24
H2H
Paide
Kalju Nomme
3
1
L
14.04.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
2
1
W
31.10.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
3
3
D
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
02.08.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
5
1
W
30.07.26
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Shelbourne
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Linfield
1
0
W
17.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
2
L
14.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
1
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
7
1
W
12.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
03.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
2
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
0
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Super Nova
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Tukums
2
2
D
30.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Rīgas FS
1
1
D
17.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
St Patrick's Athl.
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Partizani
1
1
D
H2H at home: Kalju Nomme
28.06.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
14.06.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
08.11.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
28.05.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
2
L
05.03.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
0
W
01.09.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
2
4
L
14.04.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
2
1
W
31.10.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
3
3
D
Last matches: Paide
30.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
1
D
19.07.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
5
L
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Paide
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
6
L
10.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
3
2
W
H2H away: Paide
28.06.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
14.06.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
08.11.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
28.05.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
2
W
05.03.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
0
L
01.09.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
2
4
W
14.04.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
2
1
L
31.10.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Paide
3
3
D

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 14 5 1 50:17 33 47
D W L D W
2 20 13 0 7 40:21 19 39
W L W W L
3 21 11 5 5 38:17 21 38
W D W D D
4
Paide Away
21 10 5 6 33:28 5 35
W L W D W
5 21 8 3 10 29:39 -10 27
D L W L W
6 19 8 2 9 22:31 -9 26
L L W W W
7 21 8 1 12 40:48 -8 25
L W W L W
8 22 8 1 13 32:38 -6 25
L L W W L
9 22 6 3 13 22:36 -14 21
W L D L L
10 21 5 1 15 17:48 -31 16
W W L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga