20.09.2026 20:30
Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II

Juan Pablo II College vs UCV Moquegua Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Juan Pablo II College Win 70.4%
Draw 5.8%
UCV Moquegua Win 23.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Juan Pablo II College1.49
UCV Moquegua1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College
WWDLW
41 GF / 52 GA
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WLDWL
24 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
18
BTTS Yes
12
17
Over 2.5
14
3.65
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 27 matches
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 27 matches
Juan Pablo II College Statistic UCV Moquegua
9 Wins 6
7 Draws 7
11 Losses 14
41 Goals For 24
52 Goals Against 39
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
18 BTTS Yes 12
26 Over 1.5 19
17 Over 2.5 14
10 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 12
3.65 Shots On Goal 3.38
10.23 Total Shots 10.58
3.73 Corners 3.38
43.9% Ball Possession 39.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring UCV Moquegua. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. UCV Moquegua arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Juan Pablo II College expected to line up in 4-4-2 and UCV Moquegua in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV Moquegua having the stronger overall control.

Juan Pablo II College Analysis

From their first 26 matches, Juan Pablo II College have collected 31 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 38:52 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Ramírez (3 goals), Martín Alaníz (2 goals), Josue Torres (2 goals), with creative support from E. Ramírez (2 assists), Martín Alaníz (2 assists), C. Cueva (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

With 25 points from 25 games and a place of 16, UCV Moquegua still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 23:35, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Lastre (6 goals), B. Angulo (3 goals), J. Collazos (3 goals), with creative support from E. Lastre (4 assists), Yorman Zapata (4 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Juan Pablo II College won 0 times, UCV Moquegua won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:3 from Juan Pablo II College's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Juan Pablo II College 4-4-2 / UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Juan Pablo II College wins 0, draws 0, UCV Moquegua wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2