BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Joinville
Joinville
Match Timeline
Guarany de Bagé
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
78'
Iago Dias
Joinville
🟥
82'
Guarany de Bagé
Guarany de Bagé
85'
Iago Dias
Joinville

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Joinville Win 100%
Draw 0%
Guarany de Bagé Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Joinville1.28
Guarany de Bagé0.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Joinville Joinville
WWDLW
7 GF / 5 GA
Guarany de Bagé Guarany de Bagé
WLDWL
2 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
0.25
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
3
BTTS Yes
1
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Joinville Joinville 8 matches
Guarany de Bagé Guarany de Bagé 8 matches
Joinville Statistic Guarany de Bagé
3 Wins 1
3 Draws 1
2 Losses 6
7 Goals For 2
5 Goals Against 15
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.25
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
3 BTTS Yes 1
4 Over 1.5 5
2 Over 2.5 3
0 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Joinville's more proactive style and Guarany de Bagé's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Guarany de Bagé arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Guarany de Bagé. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Guarany de Bagé having the stronger overall control. Joinville arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 11 points compared to Guarany de Bagé in 6 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Joinville Analysis

Joinville come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 11 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 7:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Erverson (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Guarany de Bagé Analysis

With 4 points from 7 games and a place of 6, Guarany de Bagé still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 2:11 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Joinville won 2 times, Guarany de Bagé won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Joinville's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
H2H summary: Joinville wins 2, draws 1, Guarany de Bagé wins 1
Last matches: Joinville
07.06.26
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Santa Catarina
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cascavel
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cascavel
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Santa Catarina
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
2
0
W
10.08.25
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
0
4
L
03.08.25
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Sao Jose
0
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Azuriz
0
0
D
06.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
30.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Barra
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
2
1
W
08.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
1
L
01.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
26.05.25
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
1
0
W
Last matches: Guarany de Bagé
07.06.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
4
L
16.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
0
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
1
3
L
27.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
2
1
W
20.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
13.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
21.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
3
L
15.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
1
L
01.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
2
L
25.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
0
D
18.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
11.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
H2H: Joinville vs Guarany de Bagé
30.05.26
H2H
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
12.04.26
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
0
D
27.07.25
H2H
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
2
1
L
19.04.25
H2H
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
Last matches: Joinville
23.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Joinville
Cascavel
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Joinville
Santa Catarina
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
2
0
W
03.08.25
Ser
Joinville
Cianorte
1
1
D
20.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Sao Jose
0
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
Joinville
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
Joinville
São Luiz
2
1
W
01.06.25
Ser
Joinville
Brasil DE Pelotas
1
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Joinville
Barra
2
1
W
03.05.25
Ser
Joinville
Azuriz
1
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
H2H at home: Joinville
30.05.26
H2H
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
W
19.04.25
H2H
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
W
Last matches: Guarany de Bagé
16.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Santa Catarina
0
3
L
19.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cascavel
0
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Cianorte
1
3
L
20.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Marcílio Dias
1
1
D
05.07.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Sao Jose
1
0
W
21.06.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Barra
0
3
L
25.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Azuriz
0
0
D
18.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Brasil DE Pelotas
0
0
D
03.05.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
São Luiz
0
1
L
19.04.25
Ser
Guarany de Bagé
Joinville
0
1
L
H2H away: Guarany de Bagé
30.05.26
H2H
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
2
0
L
19.04.25
H2H
Joinville
Guarany de Bagé
1
0
L

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)