BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Ituano
Match Timeline
Ferroviária
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Alencar
Ferroviária
🟨
28'
Neto Berola
Ituano
🔄
46'
Gabriel Razera ↔ Bruno Mezenga
Ituano
49'
Albano
Ferroviária
🔄
57'
Thassio ↔ Alason Carioca
Ituano
🔄
57'
Nelsinho ↔ Lucas Stefanello
Ituano
🟨
61'
Leo Coltro
Ituano
🟨
63'
Albano
Ferroviária
🟥
67'
Neto Berola
Ituano
🔄
67'
Douglas Skilo ↔ Fau
Ferroviária
🟨
70'
Tiaguinho
Ituano
🔄
72'
Gabriel William ↔ Martha
Ituano
74'
Denilson Chaves
Ferroviária
76'
Guilherme Xavier
Ituano
🔄
78'
Vitor Barreto ↔ M. Thiago
Ferroviária
🔄
78'
Denilson Chaves ↔ Schilling Arthur
Ferroviária
🔄
84'
Alencar ↔ Fernandinho
Ferroviária
🔄
84'
Albano ↔ Raoni
Ferroviária
86'
Fau
Ferroviária
🟨
90+5'
Fau
Ferroviária

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.9%
Odds 2.32
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.49
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.9%
2.32
BTTS No
60.3%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.49
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.13
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 1-0
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Ituano Win 58.9%
Draw 10.7%
Ferroviária Win 30.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ituano1.03
Ferroviária0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ituano Ituano
WWDLW
15 GF / 13 GA
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WLDWL
12 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
5
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ituano Ituano 13 matches
Ferroviária Ferroviária 13 matches
Ituano Statistic Ferroviária
5 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
15 Goals For 12
13 Goals Against 11
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
5 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ferroviária. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ferroviária having the stronger overall control.

Ituano Analysis

Ituano are currently 8 in the standings with 19 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 15:13 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária sit 10 with 19 points after 13 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 12:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Ituano won 2 times, Ferroviária won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:14 from Ituano's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
H2H summary: Ituano wins 2, draws 3, Ferroviária wins 5
Last matches: Ituano
04.07.26
Ser
Ituano
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ituano
Maranhão
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Ituano
Figueirense
0
0
D
14.06.26
Ser
Ituano
AO Itabaiana
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Caxias
1
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Botafogo PB
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Guarani Campinas
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Confiança
1
0
W
05.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Maringá
4
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Inter De Limeira
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Amazonas
0
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Anápolis
2
0
W
Last matches: Ferroviária
04.07.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Caxias
0
1
L
27.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
AO Itabaiana
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Inter De Limeira
2
0
W
15.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Barra
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Amazonas
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Brusque
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Volta Redonda
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Anápolis
1
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Guarani Campinas
2
2
D
20.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Floresta
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Maringá
2
3
L
H2H: Ituano vs Ferroviária
12.07.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
3
L
30.04.26
H2H
Ferroviária
Ituano
1
1
D
23.04.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
0
1
L
17.01.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
1
D
19.03.25
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
3
1
W
15.03.25
H2H
Ferroviária
Ituano
2
0
L
22.01.25
H2H
Ferroviária
Ituano
3
1
L
26.02.22
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
3
1
W
07.05.21
H2H
Ferroviária
Ituano
1
0
L
22.07.20
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
0
0
D
Last matches: Ituano
28.06.26
Ser
Ituano
Maranhão
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Ituano
Figueirense
0
0
D
25.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Botafogo PB
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Confiança
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Maringá
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Anápolis
2
0
W
H2H at home: Ituano
12.07.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
3
L
23.04.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
0
1
L
17.01.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
1
D
19.03.25
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
3
1
W
26.02.22
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
3
1
W
22.07.20
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
0
0
D
Last matches: Ferroviária
27.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
AO Itabaiana
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Amazonas
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Volta Redonda
0
0
D
20.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Floresta
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Maringá
2
3
L
H2H away: Ferroviária
12.07.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
3
W
23.04.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
0
1
W
17.01.26
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
1
D
19.03.25
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
3
1
L
26.02.22
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
3
1
L
22.07.20
H2H
Ituano
Ferroviária
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.22
Draw 2.86
Home 2.32
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.30
Over 1.5 1.46
Over 1.75 1.60
Over 2.0 1.85
Over 2.25 2.18
Over 2.5 2.48
Over 2.75 2.97
Under 1.25 3.30
Under 1.5 2.58
Under 1.75 2.27
Under 2.0 1.93
Under 2.25 1.65
Under 2.5 1.49
Under 2.75 1.35
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 3.00
Home 2.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 1.95
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.20
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 8.50
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.12
Draw 2.99
Home 2.24
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 1.90
Home 2.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.66
Draw 2.18
Home 2.64
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 0.75 1.07
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.28
Over 1.5 1.45
Over 1.75 1.55
Over 2.0 1.76
Over 2.25 2.05
Over 2.5 2.33
Over 2.75 2.78
Over 3.0 3.68
Over 3.25 4.06
Over 3.5 4.45
Over 3.75 5.64
Over 4.0 8.10
Over 4.25 7.70
Over 4.5 8.70
Over 5.5 29.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 0.75 5.89
Under 1.0 5.25
Under 1.25 3.26
Under 1.5 2.52
Under 1.75 2.17
Under 2.0 1.86
Under 2.25 1.62
Under 2.5 1.48
Under 2.75 1.34
Under 3.0 1.20
Under 3.25 1.17
Under 3.5 1.14
Under 3.75 1.08
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 3.00
Home 2.23
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.04
Home 2.90
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 2.28
Home 2.63
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.0 1.12
Over 1.25 1.28
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 1.75 1.57
Over 2.0 1.79
Over 2.25 2.08
Over 2.5 2.38
Over 2.75 2.85
Over 3.0 3.75
Over 3.25 4.10
Over 3.5 4.40
Under 0.5 6.25
Under 1.0 5.25
Under 1.25 3.30
Under 1.5 2.55
Under 1.75 2.23
Under 2.0 1.91
Under 2.25 1.65
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 2.75 1.36
Under 3.0 1.22
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.16

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 7 4 3 17:14 3 25
W W D L W
2 14 7 3 4 20:15 5 24
L W L W L
3 14 7 3 4 15:10 5 24
W W W L W
4 14 7 2 5 22:19 3 23
W L L W L
5 14 6 5 3 25:14 11 23
L D D L W
6 14 7 1 6 19:15 4 22
W W W W D
7 14 6 4 4 27:24 3 22
W W D D D
8 14 6 4 4 15:12 3 22
W L L W W
9 14 5 6 3 13:10 3 21
D W D D L
10 14 5 5 4 15:14 1 20
D D W L L
11 14 5 4 5 16:16 0 19
L L D D D
12 14 5 3 6 17:19 -2 18
L W D W D
13 14 5 3 6 10:15 -5 18
D L W L W
14 14 5 2 7 13:19 -6 17
L L L D W
15 14 4 5 5 11:14 -3 17
W L D L D
16 14 4 5 5 12:18 -6 17
D L D D W
17 14 4 4 6 12:17 -5 16
W W W L D
18 14 3 6 5 17:16 1 15
L W L D L
19 14 3 2 9 8:14 -6 11
L L D W L
20 14 2 3 9 9:18 -9 9
L L D W L
Play-offs
Relegation