ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Portman Road
Referee: J. Gillett
Ipswich
Match Timeline
Middlesbrough
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
D. Strelec · Assist: A. Browne
Middlesbrough
30'
K. McAteer · Assist: I. Azon
Ipswich
🟨
52'
Matt Targett
Middlesbrough
🔄
61'
A. Gilbert ↔ J. Sarmiento
Middlesbrough
🔄
64'
M. Nunez ↔ A. Mehmeti
Ipswich
64'
T. Conway
Middlesbrough
🔄
65'
J. Philogene ↔ J. Clarke
Ipswich
🔄
72'
K. McAteer ↔ S. W. Egeli
Ipswich
🔄
81'
I. Azon ↔ G. Hirst
Ipswich
🔄
81'
D. Strelec ↔ S. Silvera
Middlesbrough
🔄
82'
A. Matusiwa ↔ D. Neil
Ipswich
🟨
86'
Adilson Malanda
Middlesbrough
86'
J. Clarke
Ipswich
🟨
90+3'
Darnell Furlong
Ipswich
🟨
90+1'
Dan Neil
Ipswich
🟨
90+8'
Jeremy Sarmiento
Middlesbrough
🟨
90+4'
Callum Brittain
Middlesbrough
🔄
90'
T. Conway ↔ M. Whittaker
Middlesbrough

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
62.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
56.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Ipswich Win 54.9%
Draw 4.7%
Middlesbrough Win 40.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ipswich1.44
Middlesbrough1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ipswich Ipswich
WWDLW
73 GF / 44 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WLDWL
63 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
24
BTTS Yes
24
21
Over 2.5
23
4.98
Shots on Goal
4.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ipswich Ipswich 43 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 43 matches
Ipswich Statistic Middlesbrough
22 Wins 20
12 Draws 12
9 Losses 11
73 Goals For 63
44 Goals Against 45
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
24 BTTS Yes 24
36 Over 1.5 30
21 Over 2.5 23
10 Over 3.5 12
15 Clean Sheets 12
6 Failed To Score 11
4.98 Shots On Goal 4.79
15.3 Total Shots 15.93
5.86 Corners 6.86
56.6% Ball Possession 59.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Middlesbrough seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Middlesbrough. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ipswich expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Middlesbrough in 4-2-2-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Ipswich Analysis

Ipswich come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 75 points after 41 matches. The return of 21 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 71:40, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Clarke (14 goals), G. Hirst (10 goals), J. Philogene (10 goals), with creative support from L. Davis (4 assists), Conor Chaplin (3 assists), J. Cajuste (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 13 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with W. Burns, D. Button, C. Townsend unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Middlesbrough arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 72 points after 42 matches. The record of 20 wins, 12 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 62:42 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Whittaker (11 goals), Tommy Conway (9 goals), D. Strelec (5 goals), with creative support from H. Hackney (7 assists), M. Whittaker (6 assists), Tommy Conway (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Jones, D. Lenihan, H. Hackney, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ipswich won 4 times, Middlesbrough won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:22 from Ipswich's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Ipswich 4-2-3-1 / Middlesbrough 4-2-2-2
Missing players: Ipswich 4, Middlesbrough 6
H2H summary: Ipswich wins 4, draws 4, Middlesbrough wins 7
Stats
Ipswich Ipswich
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
6
6 Corner Kicks 3
10 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 2
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Goal 9
8 Shots off Goal 1
4 Blocked Shots 6
11 Shots insidebox 10
6 Shots outsidebox 5
6 Goalkeeper Saves 3
469 Total passes 404
385 Passes accurate 310
2.59 expected_goals 2.70
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Ipswich
Formation
Middlesbrough
C. Walton
C. Walton
D. Furlong
D. Furlong
D. O'Shea
D. O'Shea
J. Greaves
J. Greaves
L. Davis
L. Davis
A. Matusiwa
A. Matusiwa
J. Taylor
J. Taylor
K. McAteer
K. McAteer
M. Nunez
M. Nunez
J. Philogene
J. Philogene
I. Azon
🎯
I. Azon
S. Brynn
S. Brynn
A. Malanda
A. Malanda
D. Fry
D. Fry
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
C. Brittain
C. Brittain
A. Morris
A. Morris
A. Gilbert
A. Gilbert
M. Targett
M. Targett
A. Browne
🎯
A. Browne
T. Conway
T. Conway
D. Strelec
D. Strelec
Ipswich 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
28
C. Walton
G
19
D. Furlong
🟨 90+3'
D
26
D. O'Shea
D
24
J. Greaves
D
3
L. Davis
D
5
A. Matusiwa
↓ 82'
M
14
J. Taylor
M
20
K. McAteer
⚽ 30' ↓ 72'
M
32
M. Nunez
↓ 64'
M
11
J. Philogene
↓ 65'
M
31
I. Azon
🎯 30' ↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Palmer
G
18
B. Johnson
D
4
C. Kipre
D
47
J. Clarke
⚽ 86' ↑ 65'
F
33
A. Mehmeti
↑ 64'
M
8
S. W. Egeli
↑ 72'
F
29
C. Akpom
F
9
G. Hirst
↑ 81'
F
6
D. Neil
↑ 82' 🟨 90+1'
M
Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
31
S. Brynn
G
29
A. Malanda
🟨 86'
D
6
D. Fry
D
12
L. Ayling
D
2
C. Brittain
🟨 90+4'
M
18
A. Morris
M
14
A. Gilbert
↓ 61'
M
3
M. Targett
🟨 52'
M
16
A. Browne
🎯 25'
F
9
T. Conway
⚽ 64' ↓ 90'
F
13
D. Strelec
⚽ 25' ↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
32
J. Wildsmith
G
24
A. Bangura
D
25
G. Edmundson
D
45
J. Sarmiento
↑ 61' 🟨 90+8'
M
44
C. Ibeh
F
27
S. Hansen
F
11
M. Whittaker
↑ 90'
F
20
M. K. Sene
F
22
S. Silvera
↑ 81'
F
Last matches: Ipswich
02.05.26
Cha
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
W
28.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Southampton
2
2
D
25.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
West Brom
0
0
D
22.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Charlton
2
1
W
14.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Portsmouth
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Norwich
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Birmingham
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Millwall
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Stoke City
3
3
D
07.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Leicester
1
1
D
03.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Hull City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Swansea
3
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Watford
2
0
W
21.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Wrexham
3
5
L
13.02.26
FA
Ipswich
Wrexham
0
1
L
07.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Derby
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Preston
1
1
D
24.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
20.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Bristol City
2
0
W
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
12.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
1
2
L
09.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
2
2
D
25.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
0
1
L
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Millwall
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
14.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
0
0
D
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Norwich
1
0
W
H2H: Ipswich vs Middlesbrough
19.04.26
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
17.10.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
1
L
13.04.24
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
09.12.23
H2H
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
0
2
W
29.12.18
H2H
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
0
L
02.10.18
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
0
2
L
06.05.18
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
09.12.17
H2H
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
0
L
23.04.16
H2H
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
0
0
D
04.12.15
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
0
2
L
14.03.15
H2H
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
4
1
L
20.12.14
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
0
W
08.03.14
H2H
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
0
L
14.09.13
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
3
1
W
02.02.13
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
4
0
W
Last matches: Ipswich
02.05.26
Cha
Ipswich
QPR
3
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Ipswich
Birmingham
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Millwall
1
1
D
07.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Leicester
1
1
D
03.03.26
Cha
Ipswich
Hull City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Ipswich
Swansea
3
0
W
31.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Preston
1
1
D
20.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Bristol City
2
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Blackburn
3
0
W
10.01.26
FA
Ipswich
Blackpool
2
1
W
01.01.26
Cha
Ipswich
Oxford United
2
1
W
20.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Sheffield Wednesday
3
1
W
10.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Stoke City
1
0
W
06.12.25
Cha
Ipswich
Coventry
3
0
W
22.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
Wrexham
0
0
D
04.11.25
Cha
Ipswich
Watford
1
1
D
25.10.25
Cha
Ipswich
West Brom
1
0
W
21.10.25
Cha
Ipswich
Charlton
0
3
L
05.10.25
Cha
Ipswich
Norwich
3
1
W
27.09.25
Cha
Ipswich
Portsmouth
2
1
W
H2H at home: Ipswich
19.04.26
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
13.04.24
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
02.10.18
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
0
2
L
06.05.18
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
04.12.15
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
0
2
L
20.12.14
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
0
W
14.09.13
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
3
1
W
02.02.13
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
4
0
W
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
12.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
1
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
2
2
D
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
21.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Stoke City
2
1
W
16.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
West Brom
3
2
W
10.01.26
FA
Middlesbrough
Fulham
1
3
L
01.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Derby
0
1
L
20.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
0
2
L
09.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
2
1
W
05.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
4
1
W
22.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
1
1
D
04.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
01.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
3
L
H2H away: Middlesbrough
19.04.26
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
13.04.24
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
1
1
D
02.10.18
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
0
2
W
06.05.18
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
04.12.15
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
0
2
W
20.12.14
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
2
0
L
14.09.13
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
3
1
L
02.02.13
H2H
Ipswich
Middlesbrough
4
0
L

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Ipswich 4 missing
-
W. Burns
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
D. Button
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
C. Townsend
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Young
Missing Fixture Hip Injury
OUT
Middlesbrough 6 missing
-
A. Jones
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
D. Lenihan
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
H. Hackney
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
M. Whittaker
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
L. Castledine
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
A. Bangura
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT