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ITALY › SERIE A
10.10.2026 16:00
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: Kevin Bonacina
Inter
Match Timeline
Parma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
Petar Sučić
Inter
VAR
15'
Pio Esposito
Inter
⚽
18'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Inter
⚽
31'
Marcus Thuram · Assist: Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Inter
🔄
61'
Pio Esposito ↔ Ange-Yoan Bonny
Inter
🔄
61'
Marcus Thuram ↔ Lautaro Martínez
Inter
🔄
61'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu ↔ Aleksandar Stankovic
Inter
🔄
61'
Nesta Elphege ↔ José David Romero
Parma
🔄
62'
Giovanni Fabbian ↔ Simone Lontani
Parma
🔄
62'
Vincent Sierro ↔ Adrián Bernabé García
Parma
🔄
73'
Federico Dimarco ↔ Luis Henrique
Inter
🔄
73'
Andy Diouf ↔ Djed Spence
Inter
🔄
78'
Franco Carboni ↔ Sascha Britschgi
Parma
🔄
84'
El Bilal Toure ↔ Matija Frigan
Parma

Inter vs Parma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.6%
Odds 1.14
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.36
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.6%
1.14 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.36 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.90 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.44 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Inter Win 86.6%
Draw 4.1%
Parma Win 9.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter1.72
Parma0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Inter Inter
WWDLW
25 GF / 14 GA
Parma Parma
WLDWL
9 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
2.08
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
9
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
2
7.33
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Inter Inter 12 matches
Parma Parma 12 matches
Inter Statistic Parma
8 Wins 2
3 Draws 5
1 Losses 5
25 Goals For 9
14 Goals Against 14
2.08 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
9 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 2
4 Over 3.5 0
3 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 5
7.33 Shots On Goal 3.43
22.83 Total Shots 8.86
7 Corners 4.29
63.3% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Inter's more proactive style and Parma's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Parma. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Inter expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Parma in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Parma having the stronger overall control. Inter arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 13 points compared to Parma in 15 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Inter come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Inter Analysis

Inter come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 13 points after 5 matches. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:8, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Lautaro Martínez (4 goals), Marcus Thuram (2 goals), Pio Esposito (2 goals), with creative support from Andy Diouf (3 assists), Marcus Thuram (2 assists), Pio Esposito (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Parma Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 15, Parma still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 4:7, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through David Romero (2 goals), Pontus Almqvist (1 goals), Simone Lontani (1 goals), with creative support from Pontus Almqvist (1 assists), El Bilal Touré (1 assists), Nesta Elphege (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Inter won 9 times, Parma won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:14 from Inter's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Inter 3-5-2 / Parma 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Inter 2, Parma 4
H2H summary: Inter wins 9, draws 4, Parma wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Inter Home
6 5 1 0 18:8 10 16
W D W W W
2 6 5 1 0 11:4 7 16
W W D W W
3 6 4 2 0 14:3 11 14
D D W W W
4 6 4 1 1 6:3 3 13
D W W W L
5 6 3 3 0 11:5 6 12
D W D D W
6 6 3 2 1 9:5 4 11
D W L D W
7 6 3 2 1 9:6 3 11
D L W W W
8 6 3 1 2 10:6 4 10
W D W L L
9 6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
L W D W W
10 6 2 2 2 10:10 0 8
D L W D W
11 5 2 0 3 5:7 -2 6
L L L W W
12 6 2 0 4 6:12 -6 6
L L W L L
13 6 1 2 3 5:7 -2 5
W D L D L
14 5 1 1 3 8:11 -3 4
L L L W D
15 5 1 1 3 5:8 -3 4
D L W L L
16 6 1 1 4 9:15 -6 4
L W L D L
17 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
W L D L L
18
Parma Away
6 1 1 4 4:10 -6 4
L W L D L
19 6 1 1 4 7:14 -7 4
L D W L L
20 5 0 0 5 4:13 -9 0
L L L L L
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