ITALY › COPPA ITALIA
21.04.2026 19:00
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: S. Sozza
Inter
Match Timeline
Como
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
32'
M. Baturina · Assist: I. Van der Brempt
Como
⚽
48'
L. Da Cunha · Assist: N. Paz
Como
🔄
60'
F. Dimarco ↔ A. Diouf
Inter
🔄
60'
P. Zielinski ↔ P. Sucic
Inter
⚽
69'
H. Calhanoglu · Assist: P. Sucic
Inter
🔄
70'
L. Da Cunha ↔ M. Caqueret
Como
🔄
70'
A. Douvikas ↔ A. Diao
Como
🔄
74'
F. Acerbi ↔ Y. Bisseck
Inter
🔄
74'
A. Bonny ↔ F. Esposito
Inter
🔄
80'
M. Baturina ↔ J. Rodriguez
Como
🔄
80'
I. Van der Brempt ↔ I. Smolcic
Como
🔄
84'
Luis Henrique ↔ D. Dumfries
Inter
⚽
86'
H. Calhanoglu · Assist: P. Sucic
Inter
⚽
89'
P. Sucic · Assist: H. Calhanoglu
Inter
🔄
90'
Diego Carlos ↔ A. Morata
Como
🟨
90+4'
Máximo Perrone
Como

Inter vs Como Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 78.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
78.3%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Inter Win 55.8%
Draw 14.1%
Como Win 30.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter1.64
Como1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Inter Inter
WWDLW
103 GF / 44 GA
Como Como
WLDWL
67 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
2.19
Average Goals Scored
1.76
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
23
BTTS Yes
18
27
Over 2.5
19
5.89
Shots on Goal
5.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Inter Inter 47 matches
Como Como 38 matches
Inter Statistic Como
32 Wins 19
5 Draws 12
10 Losses 7
103 Goals For 67
44 Goals Against 31
2.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
23 BTTS Yes 18
39 Over 1.5 29
27 Over 2.5 19
16 Over 3.5 10
21 Clean Sheets 17
4 Failed To Score 9
5.89 Shots On Goal 5.26
17.19 Total Shots 14.13
6.13 Corners 4.34
58.7% Ball Possession 61.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Como controlled more possession in the first leg (51% against 49%). Como carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 1 shots on goal compared to 0. Como circulated the ball more often, making 579 passes to 572 and completing 527. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Como. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Inter expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Como in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Como having the stronger overall control.

Inter Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Inter arrive from a league campaign that has them - with - points after - matches. Their record of - wins, - draws, and - defeats with goals at -:- reflects poor form . Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Bonny (2 goals), A. Diouf (2 goals), M. Thuram (2 goals), with creative support from D. Frattesi (2 assists), M. Thuram (1 assists), H. Mkhitaryan (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. Stylistically they continue to show a balanced approach.

Como Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Como arrive from a league campaign that has them - with - points after - matches. With - wins, - draws, and - losses plus a goal ratio of -:-, they bring poor form into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Douvikas (3 goals), J. Rodriguez (2 goals), L. Da Cunha (1 goals), with creative support from A. Douvikas (1 assists), J. Rodriguez (1 assists), Martin Baturina (1 assists), while defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the return of - wins, - draws, and - losses suggests an unclear split record. Their broader football identity still points toward a balanced approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Inter won 5 times, Como won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:5 from Inter's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.9%)
Predicted formations: Inter 3-5-2 / Como 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Inter wins 5, draws 1, Como wins 0