ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente Win 66.3%
Draw 4.3%
Newells Old Boys Win 29.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente1.63
Newells Old Boys1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Independiente
WWDLW
33 GF / 25 GA
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys
WLDWL
16 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
13
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
6
4.11
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Independiente 20 matches
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 18 matches
Independiente Statistic Newells Old Boys
9 Wins 4
6 Draws 6
5 Losses 8
33 Goals For 16
25 Goals Against 29
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
13 BTTS Yes 9
18 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 7
4.11 Shots On Goal 3.47
12.67 Total Shots 10.29
5.5 Corners 3.71
52% Ball Possession 43.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independiente's more proactive style and Newells Old Boys's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 24 points compared to Newells Old Boys in 14 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Newells Old Boys. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Independiente Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 16 outings, Independiente continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, while the 24:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gabriel Ávalos (3 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals), Matías Abaldo (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Newells Old Boys Analysis

Newells Old Boys sit 14 with 15 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats with a 15:27 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Juan Ignacio Ramírez (3 goals), Jeronimo Russo (1 goals), Walter Mazzantti (1 goals), with creative support from Jeronimo Russo (2 assists), Walter Mazzantti (1 assists), Jerónimo Gómez Mattar (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Independiente won 5 times, Newells Old Boys won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Independiente's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Independiente 4-2-3-1 / Newells Old Boys 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente wins 5, draws 2, Newells Old Boys wins 4
Last matches: Independiente
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
0
W
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
13.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Lanus
2
0
W
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
23.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
Last matches: Newells Old Boys
25.07.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Talleres Cordoba
1
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Instituto Cordoba
1
1
D
17.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Union Santa Fe
3
2
W
12.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
05.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Central Cordoba de Santiago
3
1
W
29.03.26
Cop
Newells Old Boys
Acassuso
0
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Gimnasia M.
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Lanus
0
5
L
11.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Platense
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Rosario Central
0
2
L
25.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Estudiantes L.P.
0
2
L
21.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
0
3
L
16.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Deportivo Riestra
1
1
D
08.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Defensa Y Justicia
2
3
L
01.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
2
L
28.01.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
1
1
D
24.01.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
H2H: Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
28.01.26
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
1
1
D
26.11.24
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
2
1
L
11.07.23
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
0
2
L
24.09.22
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
W
31.10.21
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
1
0
L
05.03.21
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
1
2
W
03.05.20
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
0
0
D
13.12.19
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
2
3
L
18.08.18
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
2
2
D
28.04.18
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
0
1
W
07.05.17
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
2
4
W
14.02.15
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
2
3
W
Last matches: Independiente
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
13.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Lanus
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
23.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
H2H at home: Independiente
11.07.23
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
0
2
L
24.09.22
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
W
13.12.19
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
2
3
L
Last matches: Newells Old Boys
04.05.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
17.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Union Santa Fe
3
2
W
05.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Central Cordoba de Santiago
3
1
W
17.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Lanus
0
5
L
21.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
0
3
L
16.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Deportivo Riestra
1
1
D
01.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
2
L
24.01.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
H2H away: Newells Old Boys
11.07.23
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
0
2
W
24.09.22
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
L
13.12.19
H2H
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
2
3
W

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L L W D W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
L W W W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W L D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L D D W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
W L W L W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L L W D
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
D L W D D
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D L W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
D L L L L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W W L W D
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D L L L D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D W L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
W D D W D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D W L L L
Knockout Phase