11.09.2026 00:30
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: F. Tello
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
45'
Carlos González ↔ Djorkaeff Reascos
Independiente del Valle
🟨
50'
Erick Pulgar
Flamengo
🟨
57'
Mateo Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
61'
Bruno Henrique · Assist: Samuel Lino
Flamengo
🔄
72'
Giorgian de Arrascaeta ↔ Lucas Paquetá
Flamengo
🔄
72'
Jorge Carrascal ↔ Gonzalo Plata
Flamengo
🔄
75'
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez ↔ Matias Mijail Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
75'
Junior Sornoza ↔ Ronald Briones
Independiente del Valle
75'
Léo Pereira · Assist: Emerson Royal
Flamengo
🔄
85'
Aron Rodríguez ↔ Edwin Quintero
Independiente del Valle
🔄
85'
Hugo Quintana ↔ Youri Ochoa
Independiente del Valle
🔄
85'
Bruno Henrique ↔ Pedro
Flamengo
🔄
86'
Ayrton Lucas ↔ Guillermo Varela
Flamengo
🔄
90'
Samuel Lino ↔ Luiz Araújo
Flamengo
🟨
90+2'
Edwin Quintero
Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.8%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 2.64
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.8%
1.40
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.05
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
2.64
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 48.8%
Draw 9.2%
Flamengo Win 42%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.68
Flamengo1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WWDLW
86 GF / 40 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
75 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
2.26
Average Goals Scored
2.03
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
21
BTTS Yes
19
25
Over 2.5
21
5.95
Shots on Goal
5.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 38 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 37 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Flamengo
29 Wins 24
3 Draws 9
6 Losses 4
86 Goals For 75
40 Goals Against 30
2.26 Avg Goals Scored 2.03
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
21 BTTS Yes 19
32 Over 1.5 34
25 Over 2.5 21
18 Over 3.5 8
14 Clean Sheets 16
4 Failed To Score 2
5.95 Shots On Goal 5.79
16.92 Total Shots 15.94
5.81 Corners 4.76
52.4% Ball Possession 56.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Flamengo. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente del Valle expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Flamengo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Flamengo having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 13 points from 6 matches. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 11:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by Carlos González (7 goals), Junior Sornoza (2 goals), Daykol Romero (1 goals), with creative support from Layan Loor (2 assists), Junior Sornoza (1 assists), Daykol Romero (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 16 points from 6 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 14:2 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by Bruno Henrique (4 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Henrique (2 assists), Ayrton Lucas (2 assists), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 2 times, Flamengo won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:10 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 2, draws 1, Flamengo wins 3

Standings

Group H
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 11:6 5 13
W W L W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:1 8 13
L W W W W
3 6 3 0 3 7:11 -4 9
W L W L L
4 6 0 0 6 4:13 -9 0
L L L L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals