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03.10.2026 00:30
Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini
Referee: B. Ferreyra
Independ. Rivadavia
Match Timeline
Gimnasia L.P.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
J. M. Elordi · Assist: M. Salas
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
23'
Matías Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
46'
L. Gomez ↔ E. Bonifacio
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
51'
Ignacio Miramon
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
62'
↔ I. Villalba
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
65'
M. Zalazar ↔ F. Torres
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
65'
M. Seoane ↔ A. Colazo
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
70'
L. Sequeira ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
70'
P. Silva Torrejon ↔ M. Melluso
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
80'
B. Barros Schelotto ↔ A. Steimbach
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
80'
L. Janson ↔ M. Torres
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
81'
M. Fernandez ↔ L. Bucca
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
81'
F. Sartori ↔ A. Riep
Independ. Rivadavia
VAR
86'
Rodrigo Agustín Colazo
Gimnasia L.P.
⚽
86'
A. Colazo · Assist: M. Torres
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
90+1'
Sheyko Darko Studer
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
90+1'
Agustin Auzmendi
Gimnasia L.P.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Independ. Rivadavia Win 62.1%
Draw 4.2%
Gimnasia L.P. Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independ. Rivadavia1.5
Gimnasia L.P.1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WWDLW
66 GF / 38 GA
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
WLDWL
47 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.42
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
25
BTTS Yes
18
19
Over 2.5
18
5
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 39 matches
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 33 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Statistic Gimnasia L.P.
23 Wins 17
10 Draws 6
6 Losses 10
66 Goals For 47
38 Goals Against 40
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
25 BTTS Yes 18
30 Over 1.5 26
19 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 8
12 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 7
5 Shots On Goal 3.93
13.86 Total Shots 11.64
4.23 Corners 3.86
46.3% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Gimnasia L.P.'s more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gimnasia L.P.. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independ. Rivadavia expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Gimnasia L.P. in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gimnasia L.P. having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 34 points from 16 games, Independ. Rivadavia bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 29:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Arce (8 goals), J. Florentín (4 goals), F. Sartori (3 goals), with creative support from M. Fernández (4 assists), Sebastián Villa (4 assists), L. Gómez (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Gimnasia L.P. Analysis

Gimnasia L.P. sit 6 with 26 points after 16 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, while the 19:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Agustín Auzmendi (5 goals), Marcelo Torres (4 goals), Franco Torres (2 goals), with creative support from Alexis Steimbach (4 assists), Agustín Auzmendi (3 assists), Pedro Silva (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Independ. Rivadavia won 4 times, Gimnasia L.P. won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:9 from Independ. Rivadavia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Independ. Rivadavia 4-3-1-2 / Gimnasia L.P. 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independ. Rivadavia wins 4, draws 2, Gimnasia L.P. wins 1

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
L D W W L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
D W L W W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D W L D D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D W W D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W W D D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
W D D D D
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
L L W W W
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L W W L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W L D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L L L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
D W L D W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
W D D D L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D L L L W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L W L W
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L L L
Knockout Phase