FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
22.08.2026 14:00
FT
0 - 1
Tammela Stadium
Referee: Matti Roth, Finland
Ilves
Match Timeline
VPS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
S. Lindholm · Assist: K. Kouassivi-Benissan
VPS
🟨
38'
Jardell Kanga
Ilves
🔄
46'
J. Kilo ↔ J. Veteli
Ilves
🔄
46'
L. Ala-Myllymaki ↔ M. Stjopin
Ilves
🟨
67'
Oliver Pettersson
Ilves
🟨
69'
Yassin Daoussi
VPS
🔄
71'
A. Raisanen ↔ D. Terrnava
VPS
🔄
72'
K. Kouassivi-Benissan ↔ X. Odhiambo
VPS
🔄
76'
A. Popovitch ↔ E. Tamminen
Ilves
🔄
76'
G. Bamba ↔ S. Baranov
Ilves
🔄
81'
T. Miettunen ↔ H. Coulibaly
Ilves
🔄
81'
Y. Daoussi ↔ R. Simpson
VPS
🔄
81'
S. Lindholm ↔ C. Holmelund
VPS
🟨
90'
Paulo Lima
VPS

Ilves vs VPS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.7%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ilves Win 53.7%
Draw 7.1%
VPS Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ilves1.45
VPS1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ilves Ilves
WWDLW
51 GF / 40 GA
VPS VPS
WLDWL
32 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
15
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
11
2.13
Shots on Goal
1.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ilves Ilves 30 matches
VPS VPS 24 matches
Ilves Statistic VPS
12 Wins 9
6 Draws 7
12 Losses 8
51 Goals For 32
40 Goals Against 26
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
15 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 11
13 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 6
2.13 Shots On Goal 1.55
4.33 Total Shots 3.6
1.71 Corners 1.6
21.8% Ball Possession 24%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between VPS's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors VPS. VPS arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ilves expected to line up in 4-3-3 and VPS in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VPS having the stronger overall control.

Ilves Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Ilves have collected 25 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 31:31 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

VPS Analysis

VPS sit 4 with 30 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 28:21 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Smyth (3 goals), Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi (1 goals), with creative support from J. Turfkruier (1 assists), K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 assists), J. Muzinga (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ilves won 7 times, VPS won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:18 from Ilves's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Ilves 4-3-3 / VPS 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Ilves wins 7, draws 2, VPS wins 6

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6
VPS Away
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9
Ilves Home
22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)