FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Tammelan Stadion
Referee: A. Munukka
Ilves
Match Timeline
Lahti
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
J. Kanga
Ilves
🟨
45+1'
Yiandro Raap
Ilves
🔄
46'
Y. Raap ↔ J. Kilo
Ilves
🔄
46'
M. Sarr ↔ A. Belabid
Lahti
🔄
59'
R. Yapi ↔ E. Andersson
Lahti
🔄
59'
C. Montiel ↔ D. Heikkinen
Lahti
🔄
74'
T. Hytonen ↔ T. Miettunen
Ilves
🔄
74'
O. Multala ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🔄
74'
M. Rale ↔ O. Pettersson
Ilves
🔄
77'
Martim Augusto ↔ J. Ojanen
Lahti
🟨
80'
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
Lahti
🟨
80'
Amir Belabid
Lahti
🔄
83'
Neemias ↔ A. Lindholm
Lahti
🔄
85'
J. Kanga ↔ L. Ala-Myllymaki
Ilves

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.5%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ilves Win 76.5%
Draw 11.2%
Lahti Win 12.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ilves1.55
Lahti1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ilves Ilves
WWDLW
44 GF / 34 GA
Lahti Lahti
WLDWL
27 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1
13
BTTS Yes
11
14
Over 2.5
7
2.71
Shots on Goal
2.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ilves Ilves 23 matches
Lahti Lahti 20 matches
Ilves Statistic Lahti
9 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
9 Losses 6
44 Goals For 27
34 Goals Against 20
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1
13 BTTS Yes 11
17 Over 1.5 15
14 Over 2.5 7
12 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 4
2.71 Shots On Goal 2.56
6.12 Total Shots 7.69
2.12 Corners 3.19
26.1% Ball Possession 35.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Lahti's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ilves expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lahti in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lahti having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Lahti.

Ilves Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Ilves have collected 16 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 25:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lahti Analysis

So far, Lahti have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 19 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 18:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Martim Ferreira (1 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Ilves won 6 times, Lahti won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:25 from Ilves's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: Ilves 3-4-2-1 / Lahti 4-3-3
H2H summary: Ilves wins 6, draws 4, Lahti wins 4

Lineups

Ilves
Formation
Lahti
F. Krkalic
F. Krkalic
K. Wallius
K. Wallius
V. Kumpu
V. Kumpu
S. Vaisanen
S. Vaisanen
M. Rale
M. Rale
O. Multala
O. Multala
Y. Raap
Y. Raap
A. Popovitch
A. Popovitch
J. Kanga
J. Kanga
T. Hytonen
T. Hytonen
S. Baranov
S. Baranov
O. Maukonen
O. Maukonen
R. Yapi
R. Yapi
J. Muller
J. Muller
N. Gianini Dantas
N. Gianini Dantas
R. Sans
R. Sans
C. Montiel
C. Montiel
Y. Cassubie
Y. Cassubie
O. Koskinen
O. Koskinen
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
Neemias
Neemias
Martim Augusto
Martim Augusto
Ilves 4-3-3
Starting XI
12
F. Krkalic
G
13
K. Wallius
M
24
V. Kumpu
D
5
S. Vaisanen
D
3
M. Rale
↓ 74'
D
22
O. Multala
↓ 74'
M
6
Y. Raap
↓ 46' 🟨 45+1'
D
14
A. Popovitch
M
30
J. Kanga
⚽ 37' ↓ 85'
M
9
T. Hytonen
↓ 74'
F
17
S. Baranov
M
Substitutes
1
O. Virtanen
G
10
R. Riski
F
16
T. Miettunen
↑ 74'
D
19
G. Bamba
↑ 74'
D
15
L. Ala-Myllymaki
↑ 85'
M
28
J. Kilo
↑ 46'
M
4
O. Pettersson
↑ 74'
25
S. Suvanne
D
20
O. Tiitinen
M
Lahti 4-3-3
Starting XI
31
O. Maukonen
G
27
R. Yapi
↓ 59'
D
4
J. Muller
D
5
N. Gianini Dantas
🟨 80'
D
3
R. Sans
D
8
C. Montiel
↓ 59'
M
18
Y. Cassubie
M
10
O. Koskinen
M
77
M. Sarr
↓ 46'
F
19
Neemias
↓ 83'
F
11
Martim Augusto
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Hakala
G
14
E. Andersson
↑ 59'
M
9
A. Lindholm
↑ 83'
F
20
J. Ojanen
↑ 77'
M
17
A. Belabid
↑ 46' 🟨 80'
F
28
A. Kabashi
M
6
V. Vehkonen
D
7
D. Heikkinen
↑ 59'
M
25
T. Inkinen
D
Last matches: Ilves
22.08.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
0
1
L
17.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
3
L
13.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
1
1
D
09.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
06.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
02.08.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
1
L
30.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
1
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
16.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
Last matches: Lahti
21.08.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
1
W
16.08.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
09.08.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
0
D
01.08.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
2
0
W
20.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
H2H: Ilves vs Lahti
26.07.26
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
10.06.26
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
5
2
W
30.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
L
29.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
2
2
D
06.04.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
21.10.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
5
W
03.09.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
2
L
03.06.23
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
2
2
D
09.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
29.07.22
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
1
D
18.06.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
2
W
19.02.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
4
L
11.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
10.06.21
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
1
L
Last matches: Ilves
22.08.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
0
1
L
13.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
1
1
D
09.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
30.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
1
0
W
16.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
3
1
W
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
4
3
W
17.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
0
D
H2H at home: Ilves
26.07.26
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
10.06.26
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
5
2
W
06.04.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
03.06.23
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
2
2
D
09.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
18.06.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
2
W
19.02.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
4
L
11.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
Last matches: Lahti
21.08.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
1
W
09.08.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
0
D
20.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
H2H away: Lahti
26.07.26
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
L
10.06.26
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
5
2
L
06.04.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
03.06.23
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
2
2
D
09.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
L
18.06.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
2
L
19.02.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
4
W
11.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 12 7 2 38:22 16 43
L W D W W
2 21 10 9 2 28:16 12 39
D W D W L
3 21 10 5 6 35:28 7 35
W W D L W
4 21 10 4 7 34:26 8 34
L W W L W
5 21 9 6 6 29:21 8 33
W L W L L
6 21 10 3 8 25:25 0 33
W L L W D
7 21 8 6 7 27:22 5 30
D W D W L
8
Lahti Away
21 8 5 8 25:19 6 29
W L D W L
9
Ilves Home
21 7 4 10 33:35 -2 25
L L W L W
10 21 4 6 11 25:33 -8 18
L L D W L
11 21 3 6 12 18:42 -24 15
L L L L W
12 21 2 5 14 15:43 -28 11
W W L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)