FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Tammela Stadium
Referee: Amir Hajizadeh, Finland
Ilves
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
14'
O. Pettersson ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🟨
23'
M. Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🟨
55'
F. Krkalic
Ilves
57'
A. Ring
HJK Helsinki
59'
K. Wallius · Assist: T. Hytonen
Ilves
🔄
69'
T. Miettunen ↔ E. Tamminen
Ilves
🔄
69'
L. Ala-Myllymaki ↔ O. Multala
Ilves
🔄
73'
A. Cicale ↔ L. Lappalainen
HJK Helsinki
🔄
73'
M. Kirilov ↔ M. Borchers
HJK Helsinki
73'
M. Borchers · Assist: L. Lappalainen
HJK Helsinki
🔄
77'
A. Ring ↔ M. Gueye
HJK Helsinki
🔄
82'
T. Hytonen ↔ H. Coulibaly
Ilves
🔄
82'
J. Kilo ↔ Y. Raap
Ilves
🔄
87'
P. Mentu ↔ N. Alho
HJK Helsinki
🔄
88'
L. Lappalainen ↔ J. Kallinen
HJK Helsinki
🟨
90+7'
C. Speranza
Ilves

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.3%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.3%
1.25
BTTS Yes
71%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.58
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
2.46
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Ilves Win 50%
Draw 8.8%
HJK Helsinki Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ilves1.47
HJK Helsinki1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ilves Ilves
WWDLW
51 GF / 41 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
50 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
15
BTTS Yes
11
15
Over 2.5
17
2.13
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ilves Ilves 31 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 29 matches
Ilves Statistic HJK Helsinki
12 Wins 14
6 Draws 5
13 Losses 10
51 Goals For 50
41 Goals Against 35
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
15 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 22
15 Over 2.5 17
13 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 6
2.13 Shots On Goal 1.5
4.33 Total Shots 3.42
1.71 Corners 1.63
21.8% Ball Possession 20.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ilves expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and HJK Helsinki in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HJK Helsinki. Ilves have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ilves Analysis

Ilves approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 25 points from 21 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 33:35 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 34 points after 21 outings. With 10 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 34:26, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Brooklyn Lyons-Foster (1 goals), M. Borchers (1 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Ilves won 4 times, HJK Helsinki won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:24 from Ilves's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.21 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
Predicted formations: Ilves 3-4-2-1 / HJK Helsinki 4-4-2
H2H summary: Ilves wins 4, draws 4, HJK Helsinki wins 6

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9
Ilves Home
22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)